SFC Markets and Finance | Nicolo Salsano: China-EU trade will be crucial to securing global growth

摘要：As global trade continues to grapple with the uncertainties sparked by Donald Trump’s latest tariff policies, Nicolo Salsano, Chie

南方财经全媒体集团首席记者施诗记者李依农上海报道

As global trade continues to grapple with the uncertainties sparked by Donald Trump’s latest tariff policies, Nicolo Salsano, Chief Executive Officer, Europe, Standard Chartered, offers an insightful perspective on the resilience of globalization. While acknowledging that Trump's tariffs may momentarily slow global economic growth, he remains confident that the broader trend toward global interconnectedness will endure.

With a particularly optimistic view on China-EU relations, Salsano highlights the crucial role strengthening trade ties between Europe and China will play in securing future global prosperity. As both regions adapt to the shifting dynamics of international trade, the strategic partnerships that are emerging could provide a beacon of stability amidst the current turbulence in global markets.

SFC Markets and Finance: I learned that Shanghai is your last stop of your trip. So what's your feeling of this trip?

Nicolo Salsano: First of all, it's a very interesting time to be having conversations with our clients in Europe and specifically in China. Obviously, there's a lot of movement. It's a very dynamic time, clearly a lot of uncertainty. But if I draw a line under the trip and also under the discussions that we've been having with our clients in the recent weeks, there's actually a fairly positive sentiment that's beginning to emerge. Clearly, we have a lot of uncertainty that's triggered by what the U.S. administration is pursuing in terms of trade policies, etc. But what we see is a renewed and re-emerging confidence in the economic prospects of Europe led by certain sectors.

And also very clearly, we have a very positive view on the economic prospect of China, specifically in the medium term. So while the immediate future may be a bit rocky, certainly with the dialogue that we're having on both sides of these very important trading blocs, we do see a fairly positive bottom line, so to speak.

SFC Markets and Finance: Like you say, it's a special moment for us. We are in Trump 2.0. Compared to Trump's first term, his tariff policy is more aggressive. How will his policy affect global economy and Europe?

Nicolo Salsano: It's a very good question. If you look at it from a general perspective, we do have to expect that there will be a slowdown in global economy. There will be an impact of the tariffs for sure in a number of sectors, in a number of geographies. But what we also expect is that the trend to globalization will not diminish. The supply chains on a global scale are very integrated, there's very established mechanisms and trade partnerships.

So medium term, the effects will be compensated that we will likely see in the short term. And we fully expect that trade flows will start picking up again, but we also expect that they'll change direction. We expect that trade within Asia will increase, and we also expect that trade in the corridor, Europe, Asia, China and Europe in particular will also increase.

SFC Markets and Finance: So how will global business climate change?

Nicolo Salsano: I think it's a bit of a wait and see attitude right now. I believe that there will be a much more cautious approach to global trade. But as I said, there will also be a renewed confidence in specifically the East-West, West-East trade from European perspective, looking at China and Asia in particular. And also within Asia, we'll see a realignment of trade. So short term, probably a very cautious impact. But medium term, I believe that there will be renewed confidence.

SFC Markets and Finance: What's your view on globalization since decoupling is appearing?

Nicolo Salsano: Well, we fundamentally believe that globalization is actually here to stay. There may be a period of uncertainty right now as it relates to global trade flows and trading patterns, but ultimately the very high degree of integration of production chains, of value chains will not be undone.

And also in that context, we don't particularly see the decoupling that is being talked about. And if you look at our example, we've been servicing clients in China for nearly 170 years, we are a super connector globally, we work in a very strong network logic and what we call the corridors that we follow. And we really haven't seen any slowdown in the East-West, West-East corridors, certainly with China.

We haven't seen any sort of retrenchment from our clients in the Chinese market, it's actually the opposite. We begin to see that investments are picking up again into China, but we also see that Chinese corporates are beginning to push out further in the globalization logic, into European markets, obviously also into the U.S. But let's see how that keeps going. Our perspective there is the globalization trend will remain intact. We may see changes in trading flows and trading patterns, more intra-Asia trade, more trade between Asia and Europe, but again, from our perspective, where we sit in the middle of these trade flows and have been there for many decades, the patterns that we see that fundamentally underpin global trade are absolutely intact.

SFC Markets and Finance: Do you think it's a good time for China-EU trade relation?

Nicolo Salsano: It will be a good time for sure. And why am I saying that? Because again, the uncertainties that are affecting macroeconomics that are driven maybe out of the political sphere will have an impact on trading flows. There will be a realignment of trade patterns.

But we don't believe that trade per se will significantly decrease over the medium term. It's quite the opposite. And again, from our observation as a super connector over time, over many, many years, over decades, working with large corporates, small corporates in China and in Europe, we believe that the signs for re-emergence and the strengthening of trade ties between EU and China are actually as strong as they have been in many, many years.

SFC Markets and Finance: You know, this year marks the 50th anniversary of China-EU diplomatic ties. So how do you assess China-EU economic ties?

Nicolo Salsano: Well, this year, as we said, marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relationships between the EU and China. And if you look at China, the second largest economy worldwide with the second largest population worldwide, on the one hand, and EU, I would also include the broader Europe as the third largest economic bloc with the fourth largest population. It is evident that the trade relationship between these two very, very important blocs is key. It is also evident that a good relationship between the EU and China will be very, very important to secure global growth and global prosperity, and therefore the continued dialogue on diplomatic levels, but also in economic terms, will be very, very important to assure future growth and future profitability and prosperity for the two blocs.

SFC Markets and Finance: Looking forward, what do you think about the future of China-EU trade relation? And what areas can we enhance cooperation?

Nicolo Salsano: So China is going through a very, very significant transformation. The Chinese economy is taking leadership roles in some key sectors of the economy. You have to think about the AI, think about the big data, EV, clean-tech. China has transformed itself into a leading economy in those fields in particular. And therefore, that will be a field where Europe and China will form new partnerships. And as China opens up, as the RMB internationalizes, as China pushes its clean energy investment program, there will be a lot of opportunities for Chinese corporates to grow in that environment domestically, but also for foreign companies, notably European companies, to invest into China and find new areas of cooperation next to the existing ones, I have to stress, because clearly, there has already been a fair amount of investment from Europe into China, which is very much the benefit of the European corporates.

SFC Markets and Finance: Have you tried the DeepSeek?

Nicolo Salsano: I have and it's impressive. It's quite impressive and again, it's a good example of how impressively the technological advance has been in China in particular.

SFC Markets and Finance: As China continues to promote high-quality opening up, what will this bring to foreign companies in terms of opportunities and investing chances?

Nicolo Salsano: Again, the Chinese economy is shifting, and this is happening in very fast pace as China is assuming technological leadership in a number of fields. Again, new partnerships will form. China will obviously also look abroad to export its new technologies, new knowledge. And Europe is clearly a very important market for China corporates to seek to grow into new markets as China corporates globalize. I mean, we as a bank that are busy on both sides of the equation, we'll follow that very closely and obviously support our clients in China and in Europe. And I do believe that there's going to be a very dynamic development of trade between the two blocs, certainly based on investments from Chinese companies into Europe, but also from Europeans into China, focusing on specific new technologies and very dynamic technologies.

SFC Markets and Finance: So do you think, will more European companies invest in China?

Nicolo Salsano: I'm convinced that in the medium term, that will be the case. Again, the focus of investments may shift a little bit from the past where it was more geared towards manufacturing, more geared towards transporting technology and know-how from Europe into China. This time, I think it's going to be more a win-win situation for both sides of the investment equation, with a lot of European companies going to invest in China's technological boom and the advances that China is making, the more high-tech and high-quality growth areas. I'm very confident that we'll see that change also in the trade patterns along those lines.

SFC Markets and Finance: Actually Chinese companies are also accelerating their expansion into Europe. Why is European market becoming so attractive to Chinese companies?

Nicolo Salsano: I think that clearly with the high-quality of the Chinese products going into markets in Europe, but also in the U.S. and other markets abroad, that is a very logical step for Chinese companies to pursue the globalization, also in light of the economy here opening up. So Europe as a market for Chinese high-quality products, high-value added products, will become more attractive over the long term. And we fully expect that more Chinese investment will happen in the European zone.

SFC Markets and Finance: Do you have any suggestions for Chinese companies?

Nicolo Salsano: Open up, be daring, go and seek new markets, and obviously be very confident in the technology and the product quality that's currently being produced in China. And on that basis, look for new partnerships and new trade relationships.

SFC Markets and Finance: What should they take care of when they are entering Europe?

Nicolo Salsano: I think understanding the market dynamics is very important. And clearly a bank like ours, can help clients who want to go into Europe to understand the market dynamics, be it from a financing angle, but also from a market demand perspective. And just be open and adapt to the market quickly and use the strength that the Chinese products currently have.

SFC Markets and Finance: What are you most optimistic about?

Nicolo Salsano: Generally speaking, I think anything that is connected to AI, clearly big data, but also battery technology, EVs, and specifically also medicine, will be the key growth areas that we're looking to. Whereas the traditional manufacturing industries will go through consolidation phases and reemerge probably stronger from the consolidation. The high growth areas will likely be in the more tech related aspects.

SFC Markets and Finance: Lastly, I know you lived in Hong Kong for several years, so what's your impression of Hong Kong? And more broadly, how about the Greater Bay Area?

Nicolo Salsano: Hong Kong is a place that I find absolutely fascinating, and I love going back every time that there's an opportunity to go back. Hong Kong is a very interesting center in the middle of the Greater Bay Area. And that, I think, is an important part. Hong Kong is a major international financial center and it will always be a major international financial center. And it's back to back to the technology hub, the innovation hub of the Guangdong province, and the Greater Bay Area, and therefore, that combination between the financial strength of the marketplace and the technological advances, that combination is unique. I think across the world, there's very little other places that are similar in that respect. And therefore, the growth prospects and the prospect of the Greater Bay Area are unique and actually fascinating.

SFC Markets and Finance: So how do you see the future of Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area?

Nicolo Salsano: I actually see a very positive future for the area. And again, it's really grounded on the technological side, on the one hand, and the financial center (on the other hand), and that combination of entrepreneurial dynamism and motivation that will drive the strength of the GBA.