小一笔记（4）：物流需求预测

摘要：预测是根据对象的现状和过去发展变化的情况，找出规律，根据这个发展变化规律来推测出对象未来的发展变化趋势，需求预测的目的是使这个未知事件发生的不确定极小化。因此，在预测过程中要注意以下几点：第一，正确掌握变化的原因；第二，了解变化的状态；第三，从量的变化中找出因

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"Xiaoyi Notes (4): Logistics demand forecasting"

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（一）需求预测的重要性和困难性The importance and difficulty of demand forecasting

预测是根据对象的现状和过去发展变化的情况，找出规律，根据这个发展变化规律来推测出对象未来的发展变化趋势，需求预测的目的是使这个未知事件发生的不确定极小化。因此，在预测过程中要注意以下几点：第一，正确掌握变化的原因；第二，了解变化的状态；第三，从量的变化中找出因果关系；第四，在上述基础上，找出规律性的东西,对未来进行判断。物流需求预测在规划设计中非常重要，具体表现如下：

Prediction is based on the object's current state and past development changes to identify patterns, and based on these patterns to predict the object's future development trends. The purpose of demand forecasting is to minimize the uncertainty of this unknown event. Therefore, the following points should be noted during the forecasting process: First, correctly grasp the reasons for the changes; second, understand the state of the changes; third, find the causal relationship from the quantitative changes; fourth, based on the above, find the regularity and make judgments about the future. Logistics demand forecasting is very important in planning and design, as specifically shown below:

1.物流需求预测是制订物流发展战略目标的依据logistics demand forecasting is the basis for formulating logistics development strategic goals

通过预测，可以揭示和描述物流市场的变化趋势，明确未来物流发展的方向，并对物流发展中可能出现的各种情形进行全面、系统的分析与预见，从而为系统规划设计中制定物流发展战略目标提供依据以有效地避免物流系统规划决策中的片面性与局限性。

Through forecasting, we can reveal and describe the trend of the logistics market, make clear the direction of future logistics development, and analyze and foresee the various situations that may arise in the development of logistics in a comprehensive and systematic manner, so as to provide a basis for the formulation of the strategic objectives of the logistics development in the planning and design of the system in order to effectively avoid one-sidedness and limitations in the planning and decision-making of the logistics system.

2.物流需求预测是设计物流管理策略的重要手段

Logistics demand forecasting is an important means of designing logistics management strategies

在物流系统规划设计中，需要制定物流管理的具体策略，如果能通过预测了解和把握物流市场的未来需求变化，就能采取有效的战术策略。如果预测到下一季度某类产品的市场需求量将有明显下降，则可预先调整库存水平与运输节奏，以避免库存积压，增加库存成本。

In the planning and design of logistics systems, it is necessary to develop specific strategies for logistics management. If you can understand and grasp the future changes in demand in the logistics market through forecasting, you will be able to take effective tactical strategies. If it is predicted that there will be a significant drop in market demand for a certain type of product in the next quarter, the inventory level and transportation rhythm can be pre-adjusted to avoid inventory backlogs and increased inventory costs.

但物流需求预测是物流系统规划设计中的一个难题，其原因主要在于需求的不确定性,而物流的需求还往往呈现为一种潜在的需求，即要在市场的运作中具体实现，因此，物流需求表现出更多的不确定性；预测的困难性还在于物流需求还表现在更复杂的空间分布、时间分布特征；另外，准确性的预测要基于大量的基础数据信息支持。

However, logistics demand forecasting is a difficult problem in logistics system planning and design, mainly because of the uncertainty of demand. Moreover, logistics demand often manifests as a potential demand, which needs to be realized in the operation of the market. Therefore, logistics demand exhibits more uncertainty. The difficulty of forecasting also lies in the more complex spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of logistics demand. In addition, accurate forecasting requires the support of a large amount of basic data information.

为了提高预测的准确性，除了掌握大量基础资料和标准化数据，更多的是从改变预测的方法入手，如降低预测的细节程度、缩短预测周期等。

In order to improve the accuracy of forecasting, in addition to mastering a large amount of basic information and standardized data, more is done by changing the method of forecasting, such as reducing the level of detail of forecasting and shortening the forecasting cycle.

（二）物流需求的特征Characteristics of logistics requirements

1.物流需求的时间和空间特征Temporal and spatial characteristics of logistics demand

物流需求的时间特征表现在物流需求随时间变化而发生的波动现象，需求随时间变化归因于销售的增长或下降，需求模式的季节变化和多种因素影响导致的一般性波动。

The temporal characteristics of logistics demand are manifested in the phenomenon of fluctuations in logistics demand over time, changes in demand over time attributed to growth or decline in sales, seasonal variations in demand patterns and general fluctuations due to the influence of a variety of factors.

物流需求的空间特征表现在要确定物流需求在何处发生的。规划仓库位置、平衡物流系统网络中的库存水平和按地理位置分配运输等都需要物流需求的空间位置，所需的预测技术必须反映需求模式的地理性差异。

2.规律性需求demand for regularity

物流系统需要处理各种各样的产品、物料。管理者将这些产品和物料进行分组，或仅仅是对它们实行区别管理，以确定不同的服务水平。这些不同的产品、物料都会随时间形成不同的需求模式。如果需求是“规律性的”，就可以用某个一般性的需求模式表示。需求模式一般可分为趋势（trend）、季节性（seasonal）和随机性（random）。如果随机波动只占时间序列其余变化部分的很小比例，那么，利用常用的预测方法就可以得到较好的预测结果。

Logistics systems need to handle a wide variety of products and materials. Managers group these products and materials or simply manage them differently to determine different service levels. These different products and materials develop different demand patterns over time. If demand is “regular”, it can be expressed in terms of a general demand pattern. Demand patterns can generally be categorized as trend, seasonal, or random. If random fluctuations account for only a small proportion of the rest of the variation in the time series, good forecasts can be obtained using commonly used forecasting methods.

3.不规律性需求demand for irregularities

物流需求开不是在所有阶段都显示出规律性需求模式，如果某些产品或物料的总体需求量偏低或需求时间和需求水平非常不确定，那么需求就是间歇式的，这样的时间序列被称为“不平整”或不规律性的。这一类需求模式利用通常的预测方法是难以预测的，需要采用特殊的预测技术或组会预测技术类预测。

Logistics demand does not show regular demand patterns at all stages, if the overall demand for certain products or materials is low or the timing and level of demand is very uncertain, then the demand is intermittent, and such a time series is called “uneven” or irregular. This type of demand pattern is difficult to predict using the usual forecasting methods and requires the use of special forecasting techniques or groups of forecasting techniques.

4.派生性需求与独立需求Derived requirements and independent requirements

如果物流的需求是随着某种需求的发生而发生，具有从属性，则这种物流需求模式被称为派生性需求。派生性需求模式会有很强的倾向性，而且不显示随机性，我们一般采用推导的方式来计算。在另一种情况下，物流需求的产生是随机的，影响物流需求变化的因素也众多，甚至不可获知，这样的需求模式被称为独立性需求，可采用一些预测模型来预测，多数短期物流需求预测模型都要求需求是独立的，并且是随机的。

If the demand for logistics occurs with the occurrence of some kind of demand with subordination, then this logistics demand pattern is called derived demand. Derivative demand pattern will have a strong tendency and does not show randomness, we generally use derivation to calculate. In another case, the generation of logistics demand is random, and the factors affecting the change of logistics demand are numerous and even unknowable, such a demand pattern is called independent demand, which can be predicted by using some forecasting models, and most of the short-term logistics demand forecasting models require the demand to be independent and random.

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