摘要：对将达成成功的交易作为其经商和从政辉煌生涯的唐纳德·特朗普总统来说，即将于2025年4月12日开启的对三个海湾阿拉伯富国国家的访问必须签署令世界特别是美国人称羡的大单才会使其满意，而期待与特朗普达成大交易的沙特阿拉伯、卡特尔和阿联酋三国领导人为从美国获得实实在

特朗普会见沙特王储

对将达成成功的交易作为其经商和从政辉煌生涯的唐纳德·特朗普总统来说，即将于2025年4月12日开启的对三个海湾阿拉伯富国国家的访问必须签署令世界特别是美国人称羡的大单才会使其满意，而期待与特朗普达成大交易的沙特阿拉伯、卡特尔和阿联酋三国领导人为从美国获得实实在在的利益，也一定会极力配合。

实际上，三国领导人都在特朗普第一任期和其再次当选后与特朗普总统建立了私人关系，并承诺对美国进行数万亿美元的投资，因而才成为特朗普第二任期首次国事访问的国家。特朗普预计将在4月13日抵达沙特阿拉伯开启其中东之行，并在随后访问卡塔尔和阿拉伯联合酋长国。

鉴于特朗普对外交政策采取金钱至上的交易式策略，这三个国家都有很多可以向他提供的东西。

巴林国际战略研究所中东政策高级研究员哈桑·阿尔哈桑表示“在特朗普看来，海湾国家满足了他的所有的要求。他们承诺对美国经济投资数万亿美元，并在购买美国武器系统上投入巨额资金。”

在三国精心制定的讨好特朗普的策略背后，是三国希望巩固并正式确立他们作为美国不可或缺的安全和经济伙伴的地位，并尽可能为自己获取更多利益。

自特朗普重新执政以来，美国与海湾国家的关系大幅改善。沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋对拜登政府对他们的需求缺乏关注感到沮丧，此前它们曾寻求使其军事、技术和经济关系多元化。随着特朗普执政，他们看到了一位海湾官员所说的实现本国目标的“一生一次的机会”。

阿布扎比阿联酋政策中心智库的创始人兼主席埃布特萨姆·阿尔凯特比表示，从海湾三国的角度看，现在是巩固与华盛顿关系的时候了，甚至要“在与世界上最强大国家的关系中确保获得更大的特权。”

特朗普即将访问的这三个国家都有各自的优先事项清单。以下是他们想从美国得到的东西以及他们将如何实现这些目标。

特朗普向沙特推销美国军机

一、敲定美沙安全协议？

沙特阿拉伯政治经济领域的作家兼评论员阿里·希哈比表示：“安全、安全、安全是沙特阿拉伯和其他海湾国家最希望从特朗普的访问中得到的东西。”

希哈比说：“海湾国家希望得到美国对海湾地区稳定的安全承诺保证。特朗普有很多优先事项，而且众所周知他很快就会失去兴趣…… 而三国希望让他保持对海湾国家的关注。去年，美国和沙特阿拉伯几乎敲定了一项具有里程碑意义的国防和贸易协议，但由于沙特坚持要求以色列承诺走向允许巴勒斯坦建国的道路，该协议陷入僵局。”

欧亚集团中东和北非地区董事总经理菲拉斯·马克萨德表示：“不管沙特能否与以色列实现关系正常化，但特朗普可能会推进这一重大协议，因为他称关系正常化已‘没戏’。”

沙特还在寻求美国合作以发展民用核项目，但由于沙特坚持在国内进行铀浓缩活动，因为铀在高浓度浓缩后可用于生产核武器引发美国和以色列对核武器扩散的担忧，该项目遇到障碍。

白宫对沙特核项目的支持可能会让美国公司赢得利润丰厚的合同。

沙特似乎将其与美国的关系描述为双赢关系。今年3月，特朗普表示，如果沙特对美国投资1万亿美元，他就会将首次出国访问确定为沙特。他说：“他们已经同意这么做了，所以我会去那里。”

尽管沙特阿拉伯没有确认这一1万亿美元的天文数字，但它在1月份还是宣布了未来四年将与美国的贸易和投资扩大到6000亿美元的计划，并表示还有进一步增加的潜力。

但对沙特来说，要实现经济从依赖石油向多元化转变仍需要以可观的利润出售石油，以为这种转变提供资金。最近的油价下跌部分是由特朗普的关税导致的，这有可能破坏沙特雄心勃勃的发展计划。特朗普已经明确表示他希望油价降低，这与沙特阿拉伯需要高收入来为其经济转型提供资金的需求完全相悖。

特朗普不顾以色列反对拟推动向阿联酋出售F-35战机

或许与其他海湾国家相比，阿联酋更是将投资视为深化与美国关系并确保回报的核心战略，而且它确实有资金支持这一战略。作为世界上人均最富有的国家之一，阿联酋已承诺对美国投资数万亿美元。阿布扎比甚至将自己标榜为“资本之都”。

阿联酋政策中心智库创始人兼主席阿尔凯特比表示：“扩大贸易和投资是加强这种战略伙伴关系的一种方式。美国仍然是海湾地区关键的安全保障者，同时还拥有充满机遇和活力的经济，这与海湾地区的长期发展计划相契合。”

阿拉伯联合酋长国阿布扎比天际线上的住宅和商业摩天大楼。

今年3月，阿联酋宣布了一项为期10年、规模达1.4万亿美元的投资计划，重点投资人工智能、半导体、制造业和能源领域。据其驻华盛顿大使馆称，阿联酋目前对美国的投资总额已达1万亿美元。

阿联酋总统的外交顾问安瓦尔·加尔贾什表示：“阿联酋看到了成为人工智能和先进技术领域重要贡献者的一生一次的机会。承诺投资1.4万亿美元发展这类新科技。这符合阿联酋实现经济多元化、摆脱对碳氢化合物过度依赖以确保国家未来繁荣的目标。”

但如果没有美国的芯片，阿布扎比要实现其在2031年成为全球人工智能领域领导者的既定目标并非易事。

在前总统乔·拜登政府的最后几天，美国收紧了对人工智能出口的限制，以防止先进技术落入中国等外国对手手中，这些限制原定于5月15日生效。阿联酋是面临限制的国家之一，它可能期望在特朗普访问期间能够解除这些限制。

周四，美国已宣布特朗普将取消一系列拜登时代的一些限制措施。

美军运输机在其设在卡塔尔军事基地活动频繁

三、卡塔尔希望美国支持其全球外交？

卡塔尔是与美国安全关系最正式的海湾阿拉伯国家。它拥有美国在中东地区最大的军事设施，美国国务院称该设施对美国在该地区的军事行动“不可或缺”。

去年，美国与卡塔尔悄悄达成一项协议，将其在卡塔尔庞大的军事基地的军事存在再延长10年，还修订了1992年与美国签署的国防合作协议，旨在进一步加强双方的安全伙伴关系。

2022年，拜登政府还将卡塔尔指定为主要的非北约盟友，这一称号通常授予与美国军队有战略关系的亲密伙伴国。

卡塔尔一直是包括加沙战争和阿富汗问题等多个冲突的关键调解方。专家表示，这是卡塔尔努力在华盛顿眼中保持重要地位努力的一部分。

2024年3月21日，一架准备为加沙地带运送人道主义救援包裹的美国军用运输机停在多哈西南部的乌代德空军基地停机坪上。

阿尔哈桑表示：“海湾国家将冲突调解视为影响力和威望的来源。他们成功地利用了自己作为调解方的角色，将自己定位为特朗普政治议程中不可或缺的伙伴。”

卡塔尔将叙利亚最近的政权更迭视为增加自身对中东影响力的机遇，因而与叙利亚新总统艾哈迈德·沙拉保持着密切联系，沙拉一直在寻求解除西方国家对该国长期以来的制裁。

叙利亚预计将是卡塔尔在特朗普访问时会提出的一个关键问题。一位国际专家称，卡塔尔正在推动特朗普政府解除《凯撒法案》对叙利亚的制裁，并补充说，在没有华盛顿批准的情况下，卡塔尔对向叙利亚提供任何财政支持持谨慎态度。

专家表示，对特朗普来说，他对海湾三国的访问是否成功最终取决于他能从这三个海湾国家得到哪些承诺，因而，估计三国都会与其签署一系列对双方都有利的新协议，或至少对美国投资或购买武器与商品做出新承诺。

马克萨德说：“特朗普来海湾是因为他认为与沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔达成新协议符合美国经济的利益，或许也符合他自己以及他身边人的利益。所以预计会有不少重大消息宣布。”

Three energy-rich Gulf Arab nations are racing to turn their influence over Donald Trump into tangible gains with the president set to visit next week.

They have built personal ties with the president and collectively pledged trillions in US investments while casting themselves as key intermediaries in conflicts Trump wants to resolve, from Gaza to Ukraine and Iran.

Now, they’re being rewarded with the privilege of hosting Trump’s first state visit of his second term. The US president is set to land in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, followed by visits to Qatar and then the United Arab Emirates that stretch until May 16.

Given Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, the three states have much to offer.

“In Trump’s book, the Gulf states tick all the right boxes,” Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, told CNN. They “pledge to invest trillions in the US economy and spend colossal amounts on US weapons systems.”

Behind this carefully crafted strategy of wooing Trump is a desire from Gulf states to solidify and formalize their positions as the US’ indispensable Security and economic partners, and extract as much benefit for themselves as they can.

US-Gulf relations have improved significantly since Trump returned to office. Frustrated at the perceived lack of US interest in their needs under the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had sought to diversify their military, technological and economic ties. With Trump in office, they see what one Gulf official called a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity” to achieve his country’s objectives.

From their perspective, now is the time to cement ties with Washington, and even “secure greater privileges in their relationship with the world’s most powerful nation,” Ebtesam AlKetbi, founder and president of the Emirates Policy Center think tank in Abu Dhabi, said.

Each of the three nations Trump is visiting has its own list of priorities. Here’s what they want from the US and how they’re going about achieving it.

Sealing a US-Saudi security pact

“Security, security and security” is what Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states seek most from Trump’s visit, said Ali Shihabi, an author and commentator on the politics and economics of Saudi Arabia.

“Gulf States are looking for reassurance of the US security commitment to the Gulf’s stability,” Shihabi told CNN. “Trump has many priorities and has been known to lose interest quickly … and they want to keep him engaged.”

Last year, the US and Saudi Arabia came close to finalizing a landmark defense and trade pact – but the deal stalled over Saudi insistence that Israel commit to a path toward Palestinian statehood.

Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at Eurasia Group, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that Trump is likely to move ahead with major deals regardless of normalization, which he said is “dead.”

General view of Aramco's oil field in the Empty Quarter, Shaybah, Saudi Arabia, on January 12, 2024.

Riyadh is also seeking US cooperation to develop a civil nuclear program, but that has been held up over its insistence on enriching uranium domestically – raising concerns in the US and Israel over nuclear weapons proliferation. Uranium, when enriched to high levels, can be used to produce nuclear weapons.

White House backing for a Saudi nuclear program could see American firms win lucrative contracts.

Riyadh appears to be framing its relationship with the US as a win-win. In March, Trump said he’d go to Saudi Arabia if it invests $1 trillion in the US. “They’ve agreed to do that, so I’m going to be going there,” he said.

While Saudi Arabia didn’t confirm that figure, it announced plans in January to expand trade and investment with the US by $600 billion over four years, with potential for more.

But for Riyadh to diversify away from oil, it still needs to sell oil – at a healthy profit – to fund that transition. Recent price drops, driven in part by Trump’s tariffs, threaten to undermine those ambitions. Trump has made clear he wants oil prices lower, putting him at odds with Saudi Arabia’s need for high revenues to finance its economic transformation.

UAE’s quest for AI dominance

Perhaps more than any other Gulf state, the UAE sees investment as central to its strategy for deepening ties with the US and securing returns – and it has money to back it up. Among the world’s richest countries per capita, it has pledged trillions in US investments. Abu Dhabi has even branded itself “the capital of capital.”

“Expanding trade and investment is a way to reinforce this strategic partnership,” AlKetbi said. “The US remains a critical security guarantor for the Gulf region, while also offering a dynamic economy full of opportunities and capabilities that align with the long-term Gulf development plans.”

Residential and commercial skyscrapers on the skyline of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on April 10, 2022.

In March, the UAE announced a $1.4 trillion investment plan over 10 years focused on AI, semiconductors, manufacturing, and energy. Its existing US investments already total $1 trillion, according to its embassy in Washington.

“The UAE sees a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to become a significant contributor in AI and advanced technology,” Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, told CNN. “The commitment to invest $1.4 trillion… aligns with the UAE’s goal to diversify its economy away from its over reliance on hydrocarbons to ensure prosperity for the country in the future.”

But it won’t be easy for Abu Dhabi to achieve its stated goal of becoming a global leader in AI by 2031 without US microchips.

During the final days of former President Joe Biden’s administration, the US tightened curbs on AI exports to keep advanced technology out of the hands of foreign adversaries like China, which were meant to take effect on May 15. The UAE has been one of the countries facing restrictions and may expect them to be lifted during Trump’s trip.

On Thursday, the US announced that Trump will rescind a set of the Biden-era curbs.

Qatar’s global diplomacy

Qatar is the Gulf Arab nation with the most formalized security ties with the US. It hosts the biggest US military installation in the Middle East, which the State Department describes as “indispensable” for US military operations in the region.

Last year, the US quietly reached an agreement that extends its military presence at the sprawling base in Qatar for another 10 years. It also amended a 1992 defense cooperation agreement with the US, which is meant to further strengthen their security partnership.

In 2022, the Biden administration also designated Qatar as a Major Non-NATO Ally, a title granted to close friends that have strategic working relationships with the US military.

Qatar has been a key mediator in a number of conflicts – from the war in Gaza to Afghanistan. Experts say it is part of an effort to remain relevant in the eyes of Washington.

A US military transport aircraft, which was set to carry humanitarian aid parcels for the Gaza Strip, is pictured on the tarmac at the Al-Udeid air base southwest of Doha on March 21, 2024.

“The Gulf states view conflict mediation as a source of influence and prestige,” Alhasan told CNN. “They have managed to use their role as mediators to position themselves as indispensable partners for Trump’s political agenda.”

Doha also maintains close ties with Syria’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has been on a quest to relieve his country of years-long sanctions by the West.

Syria is expected to be a key issue that Qatar will raise with Trump when he visits, an official with knowledge of the matter told CNN Thursday. Doha is pushing the Trump administration to lift sanctions on Syria under the Caesar Act, the official said, adding that Qatar is wary about providing any financial support to Syria without Washington’s blessing.

Trump’s visit is ultimately about what he can get out of the three Gulf states, experts said, adding that each of the three nations is anticipating a set of new deals that will benefit both parties.

“He’s coming here because he believes it is in the interest of the US economy, perhaps his interest and those around him, to have those deals here with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar,” Maksad said. “So expect big announcements.”

来源：读行品世事一点号