摘要：Jeffrey M. Jones is a senior editor and political analyst at Gallup, specializing in U.S. political and social opinion polling. Hi

刘晗灵：Trump Transition Ratings Better the Second Time Around（特朗普过渡期支持率较首次显著提升）

More Republicans approve than did during first transition; overall ratings still well below other presidents
共和党认可度超八年前同期水平 总体评分仍远低于历届总统

BY JEFFREY M. JONES

作者：杰弗里·M·琼斯

Jeffrey M. Jones is a senior editor and political analyst at Gallup, specializing in U.S. political and social opinion polling. His 2024 study on declining public confidence in higher education, cited in Deloitte’s industry report, highlighted shifting perceptions of academic value. His work frequently examines leadership approval ratings and societal trends, offering data-driven insights for policy and public discourse.

​Jeffrey M. Jones是盖洛普（Gallup）的资深编辑与政治分析师，专注于美国政治与社会议题的民意调查与研究。他在2024年发表的《美国高等教育信心调查报》揭示了公众对大学教育价值的质疑趋势，相关数据被德勤报告引用作为行业分析依据。其研究常聚焦于政治领袖支持率、公共政策与社会态度变迁，为政策制定与公共讨论提供数据支持。

华盛顿特区——最新盖洛普民调显示，51%美国民众认可唐纳德·特朗普处理总统过渡工作的方式，44%表示反对。这一数据较其首次总统过渡期（2016年12月48%认可/48%反对，2017年1月44%认可/51%反对）明显改善。不过特朗普当前支持率仍远低于近代其他候任总统。自比尔·克林顿以来，所有新当选总统过渡期认可度均不低于61%，且认可度优势均超30个百分点。

本次调查于12月2-18日进行。历史数据显示，克林顿（61%）、小布什（61%）和拜登（68%）的过渡期认可度介于61%-68%区间，而奥巴马（75%-83%）支持率更为突出。历届候任总统过渡期反对率最高仅33%。

2016年12月民调显示，特朗普过渡工作获48%认可/48%反对的平分秋色评价。至2017年1月，反对率升至51%，认可率降至44%。历史数据显示，总统过渡期支持率通常在11-12月首次测量后变化不大。克林顿、奥巴马和拜登的支持率随时间推移略有上升，而小布什和特朗普则出现小幅下滑。

共和党对二次过渡期更显乐观
相较于2016年，特朗普支持率提升主要源于共和党内部认可度攀升。当前97%共和党人认可其过渡工作，较2016年12月的86%显著提升。独立人士认可度保持稳定（当前47% vs 八年前46%），民主党认可度则从17%降至10%。

值得注意的是，特朗普在独立选民中的支持率远低于历届候任总统。此前所有候任总统在独立群体中的过渡期认可度均不低于59%。同时，特朗普在民主党人中的支持率也创下新低。在2016年前，约半数反对党支持者会认可候任总统的过渡工作（克林顿获50%共和党人认可，小布什获46%民主党人认可，奥巴马获53%共和党人认可）。近年来党派对立加剧，特朗普和拜登的过渡工作均遭对方党派强烈否定，反对党认可度均低于20%。

公众质疑特朗普内阁人选质量
45%的美国成年人对特朗普的内阁级任命给出负面评价，其中8%认为"低于平均水平"，37%评为"糟糕"；36%给予正面评价（18%"出色"，18%"高于平均水平"），另有16%认为"一般"。

特朗普提名的司法部长人选马特·盖茨已因共和党主导的参议院确认前景不明而撤回提名。其他争议人选包括：国防部长提名人皮特·赫格塞思（过往行为受质疑）、卫生部长提名人小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪（资格存疑），以及国家情报总监提名人图尔西·加巴德（政策立场引发审查）。

尽管如此，当前民众对特朗普内阁人选的评价与八年前基本持平：2017年32%认为"出色/高于平均"，20%"一般"，44%"低于平均/糟糕"；如今给出"糟糕"评价的比例微升5个百分点至37%。历史数据显示，其他候任总统的内阁任命获得更多积极评价，但克林顿、小布什和奥巴马任命的评价中，约四成民众均给出"一般"的中性评价。

共和党对特朗普第二任期内阁人选的热情远超首次任期——84%共和党人给出积极评价（40%"出色"/44%"高于平均"），较首次任期（21%"出色"/38%"高于平均"）分别提升19和6个百分点。

民主党批评声浪持续升级：正面评价率从首次任期的6%骤降至1%，负面评价率则从64%飙升至78%。独立选民态度与2017年基本持平，当前27%给出积极评价（14%"出色"/13%"高于平均"），23%认为"一般"，47%持负面看法（11%"低于平均"/36%"糟糕"）。

历史数据显示，特朗普内阁提名呈现史无前例的党际撕裂：其本党支持者的积极评价率、反对党负面评价强度均创历任总统之最。同时，独立选民对其提名的负面评价强度（47%）远超对克林顿（30%）、小布什（33%）、奥巴马（28%）等前任候任总统内阁人选的同期评估水平。

​​核心结论​​
尽管更多美国民众认可特朗普的第二次总统过渡工作（当前认可率51% vs 2017年同期44%），但公众对其内阁人选的评价与首次任期基本持平。真正的变化在于空前的党派极化：共和党支持热情较首次任期飙升（84%积极评价 vs 59%），而民主党负面评价率创历史新高（78%）。

纵向对比显示，特朗普的过渡期支持率与内阁提名认可度（51%）均创近30年候任总统最低纪录，这一低迷开局预示其或将打破"总统蜜月期"定律——克林顿（58%）、小布什（57%）、奥巴马（64%）、拜登（55%）就职初期支持率均稳居过半区间，而特朗普2017年就职支持率仅45%，与其过渡期末段支持率（44%）几乎持平。

若当前51%的过渡期支持率得以维持，特朗普或将在第二任期首度实现总统任内过半支持率；但若该数据如2016-2017年般下滑（-4个百分点），其第二任期恐将重演"无蜜月开局"。这种支持率动态折射出美国政治极化的代际深化趋势。

Editor's Note: Trump’s presidential transition approval rating has been updated in a poll conducted Jan. 2-15, 2025, showing 49% approving, 44% disapproving and 7% expressing no opinion. The topline and demographic results from the latest poll are linked at the end of this report.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More Americans approve (51%) than disapprove (44%) of the way Donald Trump is handling his presidential transition. That represents an improvement from his first presidential transition, when he received equally positive and negative ratings in December 2016 and then more negative than positive ratings in January 2017. Trump’s current transition ratings still rank well below those for other recent presidents-elect. All incoming presidents since Bill Clinton had transition approval ratings of at least 61%, with approval exceeding disapproval by 30 or more percentage points for each.

The latest results are based on a Dec. 2-18 Gallup poll. Transition approval ratings for Clinton, George W. Bush and Joe Biden ranged between 61% and 68%, while Barack Obama’s ratings were higher, ranging from 75% to 83%. No more than 33% of Americans disapproved of those presidents’ transition work.

In a December 2016 Gallup poll, Americans split evenly over Trump’s transition, with 48% each rating it positively and negatively. By the next reading in January 2017, more disapproved (51%) than approved (44%).

Historically, presidential transition approval ratings have not changed greatly between the initial rating, usually taken in November or December, and later measures taken closer to Inauguration Day in January. Some presidents-elect saw their presidential transition approval ratings improve slightly (Clinton, Obama and Biden) over time, while others (Bush and Trump) saw modest declines in theirs.

Republicans More Optimistic About Trump’s Second Transition

Compared with 2016, Trump’s improved ratings this year are primarily due to more positive ratings among Republicans. Ninety-seven percent of Republicans approve of the way he is handling his transition, compared with 86% in December 2016. Independents’ approval is essentially at the same level now (47%) as eight years ago (46%), while Democrats are less likely to approve now (10%) than they were then (17%).

Trump’s transition approval ratings among independents are much lower than those of other presidents-elect. No less than 59% of independents have approved of other incoming presidents’ transitions.

Trump’s ratings among Democrats are much lower than opposition party ratings in the past. Before 2016, about half of supporters of the opposition party approved of the way presidents-elect handled their transitions. This includes 50% of Republicans approving of Clinton’s transition, 46% of Democrats approving of Bush’s and 53% of Republicans approving of Obama’s. Recently, both Trump and Biden have been evaluated much more critically by the other party’s supporters, with Trump’s transition approval ratings below 20% and Biden’s just above that level.

Public Questions Quality of Trump Cabinet-Level Picks

Forty-five percent of U.S. adults rate Trump’s Cabinet-level appointments as “below average” (8%) or “poor” (37%), while 36% describe them as either “outstanding” (18%) or “above average” (18%). Another 16% say his selections are “average.”

Trump has already seen one of his appointees, Attorney General designate Matt Gaetz, withdraw over uncertainty as to whether a Republican-led Senate would confirm him. Several of Trump’s other picks, including Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for secretary of Health and Human Services, and Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, have drawn scrutiny over their past personal behavior, qualifications for the job or past policy positions.

Nevertheless, Americans’ ratings of Trump’s Cabinet choices are similar to what they were eight years ago. In 2017, 32% said Trump’s choices were outstanding or above average, 20% average, and 44% below average or poor. Slightly more now (37%) than in 2017 (32%) rate Trump’s picks as poor.

Americans rated the Cabinet-level choices of other presidents-elect more favorably than unfavorably. However, for Clinton, Bush and Obama, about four in 10 rated their picks as average.

Republicans are much more enthusiastic about Trump’s second-term Cabinet choices than they were about his first-term picks. Forty percent say his Cabinet choices are outstanding and 44% above average, compared with 21% and 38%, respectively, before his first term.

Democrats, who were widely critical of Trump’s first-term choices, are even more so now -- 1%, down from 6%, evaluate his choices as either outstanding or above average, while 78%, up from 64%, rate them as poor.

Independents’ views are similar now to what they were in 2017. Currently, 27% assess Trump’s Cabinet selections as outstanding (14%) or above average (13%), 23% as average, and 47% as either below average (11%) or poor (36%).

Trump’s picks are historically polarized -- no prior president’s Cabinet selections have been rated as positively by his own party’s supporters or as negatively by the other party’s supporters. Additionally, independents are much more negative toward Trump’s choices than they have been for those of other presidents-elect.

Bottom Line

More Americans approve than disapprove of the way Trump is handling his second presidential transition, a better review at this point than for the transition to his first term. That doesn’t appear to be because Americans think he has made better Cabinet choices, however, as the public rates his selections similarly to those for his first term. But his choices this year are more polarizing, with Republicans much more enthusiastic and Democrats much less enthusiastic than they were about Trump’s first-term appointments.

Trump’s transition approval ratings and his Cabinet choice ratings are both far less positive than those of other presidents-elect in the past three decades. Trump’s low transition approval ratings also portend lower early-term job approval ratings than other new presidents in what is typically a presidential honeymoon period. Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden all began their terms with job approval comfortably above the majority level, albeit lower than their final transition approval ratings.

In contrast, Trump’s initial presidential job approval rating of 45% in January 2017, the lowest for a new president, essentially matched his transition approval rating from two weeks earlier (44%). Should Trump’s 2024 transition rating hold at its current level, he could see his first-ever majority job approval rating as president. Should it decline, he will likely begin his second term like his first, without a traditional presidential honeymoon.

来源：非常道