摘要：华盛顿报道——更多美国人预计历史将对乔·拜登的总统任期作出负面而非正面评价。54%的美国成年人认为拜登将被铭记为“低于平均水平”（17%）或“糟糕”（37%）的总统，而19%的人表示他将被评为“杰出”（6%）或“高于平均水平”（13%）。另有26%的人认为他会

美国人认为历史将对拜登政府作出负面评价 对特朗普首个任期历史评价的看法大幅改善

杰弗里·M·琼斯

华盛顿报道——更多美国人预计历史将对乔·拜登的总统任期作出负面而非正面评价。54%的美国成年人认为拜登将被铭记为“低于平均水平”（17%）或“糟糕”（37%）的总统，而19%的人表示他将被评为“杰出”（6%）或“高于平均水平”（13%）。另有26%的人认为他会被视为“中等水平”。

与盖洛普最新民调纳入的九位近期总统相比，拜登的评分与理查德·尼克松最为相似，后者的净支持率为-42（12%认为杰出或高于平均水平，54%认为低于平均水平或糟糕）。拜登获得的“糟糕”评价（37%）比尼克松（30%）更多，但获得的杰出或高于平均水平评价也更多。

在近期总统中，乔治·W·布什和唐纳德·特朗普的负面评价也多于正面评价。特朗普的首个任期获得了相对较高的正面（40%）和负面（44%）评价，中等评价最少（16%）。特朗普31%的“糟糕”评价与尼克松相近，但其17%的“杰出”评价高于多数其他总统。

约翰·肯尼迪是美国人评价最高的总统，净支持率为+68，罗纳德·里根（+38）和巴拉克·奥巴马（+21）也获得了相当积极的评价。

调查结果基于盖洛普12月2日至18日的民意调查，该调查在吉米·卡特12月29日去世前完成，后者可能影响人们对其总统任期的记忆。卡特与比尔·克林顿和乔治·H·W·布什一样，获得的杰出或高于平均水平评价略多于低于平均水平或糟糕的评价。

民主党对拜登评价不温不火：共和党压倒性批评

更多民主党人希望历史对拜登政府予以正面而非负面评价——44%认为其将被评为杰出或高于平均水平，16%认为低于平均水平或糟糕。但近38%的民主党人认为拜登将被铭记为“中等水平”总统，比例与认为其表现优秀的人数相近。

无党派人士和共和党人对拜登总统任期的评价更为悲观。51%的无党派人士认为历史将对拜登作出负面评价，仅15%认为会是正面评价。共和党人压倒性预计历史将严厉评判拜登，其中76%认为他会被视为“糟糕”总统，17%认为低于平均水平。

民主党对拜登总统任期+28的净支持率，显著低于他们对其他近期民主党总统的评价，克林顿的+43是次低水平。拜登是近期唯一一位在无党派人士中净支持率为负的民主党总统，其在共和党人中-92的净支持率比任何其他民主党总统低逾40个百分点。

肯尼迪是唯一一位在反对党支持者中获得正面评价的总统。事实上，共和党人对肯尼迪的评价与民主党人相近，甚至优于无党派人士。民主党人认为奥巴马是表现最佳的民主党总统。

在共和党总统中，特朗普的评价两极分化最严重，甚至超过民主党人对拜登的评价分歧。共和党人认为特朗普与里根并列拥有最佳总统遗产。相比之下，民主党人认为历史对特朗普首个任期的评价将比尼克松政府更差。更多无党派人士预计特朗普会获得负面而非正面评价，但他们对尼克松的评价更差。

里根是唯一未被民主党人负面评价的共和党总统，老布什也获得了民主党人相对中立的评价。总体而言，无党派人士对两位共和党总统——里根和老布什——的评价较为正面。

尼克松是唯一一位被自己党派支持者评价为负面多于正面的总统。共和党人对两位布什总统的评价远不如对特朗普和里根宽容，但总体仍持正面看法。

特朗普首个任期评价较离任时大幅改善

特朗普的支持率较2021年1月离任时显著提升，当时正值1月6日国会山袭击事件后，且美国新冠死亡人数达到峰值。彼时，29%的美国人认为历史将把特朗普评为杰出或高于平均水平的总统，10%认为中等，61%认为低于平均水平或糟糕。

特朗普2021年-32的净支持率已改善至-4。自2021年以来，对其首个任期“低于平均水平或糟糕”的评价下降了17个百分点，降幅大于“杰出或高于平均水平”评价的增幅（11个百分点）。

对特朗普“低于平均水平或糟糕”评价降幅最大的是无党派人士（从63%降至47%），但所有党派群体对其首个任期的负面评价均显著下降。“杰出或高于平均水平”评价的增长主要来自共和党人，从72%升至86%。

特朗普并非唯一一位历史遗产评价较任期结束时改善的总统：

里根的评价自任期结束后变化不大，而老布什和克林顿的评价则有所下降。

英文原文

Perceptions of how Trump's first term will be regarded have improved considerably

BY JEFFREY M. JONES

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Many more Americans expect history to judge Joe Biden’s presidency unfavorably rather than favorably. Fifty-four percent of U.S. adults believe Biden will be remembered as a “below average” (17%) or “poor” (37%) president, while 19% say he will be evaluated as “outstanding” (6%) or “above average” (13%). Another 26% think he will be regarded as “average.”

Compared with nine recent presidents included in the new Gallup poll, Biden rates most similarly to Richard Nixon, who has a -42 net rating (12% outstanding or above average versus 54% below average or poor). Biden receives more “poor” reviews than Nixon does (37% vs. 30%), but Biden gets more outstanding or above-average ratings.

George W. Bush and Donald Trump also receive more negative than positive evaluations among recent presidents, with Trump getting both relatively high positive (40%) and negative ratings (44%) for his first term and the fewest average ones (16%). Trump’s 31% “poor” ratings are similar to those of Nixon, but Trump’s 17% “outstanding” ratings are higher than for most other presidents.

John Kennedy is rated best by Americans – with a net rating of +68, while Ronald Reagan (+38) and Barack Obama (+21) also get substantially favorable reviews.

The results are based on a Dec. 2-18 Gallup poll. The poll was completed before the Dec. 29 passing of Jimmy Carter, which could have affected the way people remember his presidency. Carter, along with Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush, receives slightly more outstanding or above-average ratings from Americans than below-average or poor ones.

More Democrats expect history to look kindly rather than critically on the Biden presidency -- 44% think it will be judged outstanding or above average, while 16% say below average or poor. But nearly as many Democrats believe Biden will be remembered as an “average” president (38%) as a good one.

Independents and Republicans are much more pessimistic in their evaluations of Biden’s presidency. The slim majority of independents, 51%, believe Biden will get a negative historical review, compared with 15% who think he’ll get a positive one. Republicans overwhelmingly expect history to judge Biden harshly, including 76% who say he will be regarded as a “poor” president and 17% below average.

Democrats’ +28 net rating of Biden’s presidency is significantly lower than their ratings of other recent Democratic presidents, with Clinton at +43 being the next lowest. Biden is the only recent Democrat with a net-negative rating among political independents, and his -92 net rating among Republicans is more than 40 points worse than for any other Democratic president.

Kennedy is the only president to get a positive review among supporters of the opposition party. In fact, Republicans rate Kennedy similarly to Democrats, and better than independents do. Democrats rate Obama as the best of the Democratic presidents.

Among Republican presidents, Trump receives the most sharply polarized ratings, even more so than Biden does among Democratic presidents. Republicans believe Trump is on par with

Reagan as having the best presidential legacy. In contrast, Democrats believe history will judge Trump’s first term worse than Nixon’s presidency. More independents expect Trump to receive a negative than positive evaluation, but independents rate Nixon worse.

Reagan is the only Republican president that Democrats do not evaluate negatively, though the elder George Bush also gets relatively neutral ratings from Democrats. Independents rate two Republican presidents -- Reagan and the elder Bush -- positively on balance.

Nixon is the only president to be rated more negatively than positively by his own party’s supporters. Republicans are much less charitable in their evaluations of the two Bush presidents than of Trump and Reagan, but still view them positively overall.

Trump’s ratings have improved substantially from when he left office in January 2021 in the wake of the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and the peak in U.S. deaths from COVID-19. At that time, 29% of Americans thought history would judge Trump as an outstanding or above-average president, 10% as average, and 61% below average or poor.

The -32 net rating Trump had in 2021 has improved to -4. Since 2021, there has been a larger decrease in below-average or poor evaluations of Trump’s first term (down 17 points) than an increase in outstanding or above-average ratings (up 11 points).

The biggest decline in below-average or poor ratings of Trump has come among independents (falling from 63% to 47%), but all party groups show meaningful declines in negative assessments of his first term. Most of the increase in outstanding or above-average ratings has come among Republicans, from 72% to 86%.

Trump is not the only president whose historical legacy assessments have improved compared with how they were rated at the end of their presidency.

Reagan’s evaluations haven’t changed much since his presidency ended, while those for George H.W. Bush and Clinton have worsened.

作者简介：杰弗里·M·琼斯博士自2000年起担任盖洛普高级编辑，负责美国民意调查及公开发布调查的研究与分析，其研究聚焦公众舆论、投票行为、环境议题（如全球变暖关注度）及社会政策（如移民政策态度）等领域，成果广泛发表于学术期刊并被《纽约时报》《NPR》等主流媒体引用。他深度参与多届美国总统选举研究，例如2024年大选期间对民主党候选人选民热情与投票率关联的分析，凸显其在选举动态和社会趋势分析中的权威性，尽管公开资料中其教育背景及详细学术论文列表有限，但长期职业履历和研究影响力已确立其在公共舆论研究领域的专业地位。

About the Author: Dr. Jeffrey M. Jones has served as a Gallup Senior Editor since 2000, overseeing research and analysis for Gallup’s U.S. polling and public-release surveys. His research focuses on areas such as public opinion, voting behavior, environmental issues (e.g., public concern about global warming), and social policies (e.g., attitudes toward immigration policies), with findings published in academic journals and cited by major media outlets like *The New York Times* and NPR. He has deeply engaged in studying multiple U.S. presidential elections, including analyzing the correlation between voter enthusiasm for Democratic candidates and voter turnout during the 2024 election, demonstrating his authority in electoral dynamics and social trend analysis. While his educational background and detailed academic publications remain limited in public records, his long-standing career and research impact have established his professional status in the field of public opinion studies.

来源：非常道