海外之声 | 移民、物价与美联储政策转向

摘要：《金融时报》（Financial Times），探讨了美联储可能于9月降息的背景、潜在影响，以及移民政策等因素对美国通胀的结构性压力，为理解当前美国货币政策走向提供了多维度视角。

导读

《金融时报》（Financial Times），探讨了美联储可能于9月降息的背景、潜在影响，以及移民政策等因素对美国通胀的结构性压力，为理解当前美国货币政策走向提供了多维度视角。

一、美联储政策转向与9月降息预期

美联储主席杰伊・鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上暗示，美联储可能会在9月降息，他表示“基线展望和不断变化的风险平衡可能值得调整我们的政策立场”。报告指出，鲍威尔在7月的利率会议上就已表明，失业率上升是降息的先决条件，而7月的就业报告恰好满足了这一条件，同时该报告还大幅下修了夏季的就业增长数据。

尽管市场普遍预期美联储将在9月降息，但对通胀的担忧可能会导致这是一个短暂的调整而非意味着进入了利率下行周期。鲍威尔的讲话在其他方面仍显鹰派，他提到“贸易和移民政策的变化正在影响需求和供给。在这种环境下，很难将周期性发展与趋势或结构性发展区分开来”，这也反映出美联储对当前经济环境复杂性的考量。

二、移民政策对通胀的结构性压力

报告认为，移民政策可能比关税对美国经济构成更大的上行价格压力。自4月以来，美国外国出生劳动力减少了约90万人，参与率也有所下降，这可能源于对政府执法的担忧。这种劳动力供给的结构性变化可能加剧通胀压力，而低利率可能会使情况恶化。

图表 1 出生为外国国籍的劳动力（来源：BLS）

美国劳工统计局称，7月最终需求商品价格的广泛上涨中，40%可归因于最终需求食品指数，其中新鲜和干蔬菜价格环比上涨39%，为2022年初以来的最大涨幅。尽管这一指标波动性较大，但仍反映出相关行业的价格压力。

图表 2 蔬菜生产者价格（与上一月相比变化的百分比，来源：LSEG Datastream）

报告分析认为，食品制造业对外国工人的依赖度较高，劳动力成本上升可能进一步推高食品价格。报告表示，食品通胀不仅对通胀预期有较大影响，美联储也认为食品通胀对整体CPI的预测价值最高，因此需要央行特别关注。

三、货币市场动态与9月潜在风险

除了降息决策，美国货币市场的动态也可能影响美联储的政策实施。9月15日，即美联储会议前两天，季度税收支付和票据息票结算可能导致单日央行储备金减少2000亿美元，使储备金自2020年以来首次低于3万亿美元。

报告指出，储备金是央行最具流动性的资金，过去当储备“稀缺”时，美国金融体系曾出现问题。美国财政部正在将一般账户补充至约9000亿美元，这会消耗央行储备金。目前储备约为3.3万亿美元，低于2024年初的3.6万亿美元，巴克莱预测到9月底储备金将降至约2.9万亿美元。尽管仍高于11%这一美联储“充足储备框架”的理想水平，但储备金从充足到稀缺的临界点尚不明确，这给市场带来了不确定性。

四、美联储政策的潜在意外与影响

报告认为，美联储在9月维持利率不变的可能性极小，因为央行很少违背共识，且近年来的意外多是幅度而非方向上的。然而，在当前通胀上升的背景下，若美联储开始降息，鹰派意外可能再次出现，但这一次可能并不意味着经济表现更好，反而反映出美联储在平衡增长与通胀方面的艰难抉择。

总体而言，美联储在9月降息的可能性较大，但通胀压力，尤其是移民政策带来的结构性通胀压力，以及货币市场的潜在风险，将制约其宽松步伐，未来政策走向需密切关注经济数据和结构性因素的变化。

原文节选

Chris Giles on Central Banks newsletter（on-site version）

Hello, I’m Andrew Whiffin, stand-in for Chris Giles today. We work together on Monetary Policy Radar, where we try to figure out what central bankers are thinking and the path they will dictate for interest rates With the Federal Reserve’s September decision capturing the market’s attention, I will offer a few thoughts on why if the central bank cuts as expected, it is unlikely to charge into another period of rapid easing. Then I look at recent data that might be a sign of the more structural upward pressure on US prices.

But first up is Fed voting member Lisa Cook, who is reportedly being fired by US President Donald Trump following allegations of mortgage fraud. Cook has refused to step down and a legal battle over the “for cause” framework that Trump cited in her termination letter is shaping up. Cook said: “President Trump purported to fire me ‘for cause’ when no cause exists under the law, and he has no authority to do so”.

This raises the possibility of another Trump pick joining Stephen Miran on the Fed’s board. It could also threaten a potential constitutional clash if the president’s dovish appointees ever find themselves outvoted by “inferior officers”, the hawkish heads of the regional Fed banks who have not been signed off by the Senate and Trump.

If you want to know what will happen next, read this MPR explainer. Powell pivots into rising inflation Speaking at Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed chair Jay Powell hinted again that the Fed would cut interest rates in September, stating that “the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”. Powell already indicated at July’s rate meeting that higher unemployment was a prerequisite for a cut. July’s employment report later delivered as much, along with big downward revisions to jobs growth in the summer.

In our capacity as rate forecasters, we now expect the Fed to cut in September. But we do still expect inflation worries to temper appetites for rapid easing. Tariffrelated inflation is one thing, which Chris has covered in detail here; inflation from immigration policies deserves some attention, too.

Powell’s speech was otherwise quite hawkish. It included the following near the top: “Changes in trade and immigration policies are affecting both demand and supply. In this environment, distinguishing cyclical developments from trend, or structural, developments is difficult.”

Tariffs might prove to be transitory, as per the Fed’s base case. Other unknowns are changes in the jobs market and the impact of immigration policies on labour supply. One question is: how much of the downgrade to jobs growth this summer was a function of supply and not demand?

The US foreign-born labour force has fallen by about 900,000 people since April. The participation rate is down too, presumably over fears of government enforcement.