摘要：据JPE官网显示，来自哥伦比亚大学的Gautam Gowrisankaran、亚利桑那大学的Ashley Langer、中国人民大学的张文丹，合作撰写的论文“Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electrici

据JPE官网显示，来自哥伦比亚大学的Gautam Gowrisankaran、亚利桑那大学的Ashley Langer、中国人民大学的张文丹，合作撰写的论文“Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity:The Case of Air Toxics Standards”，在国际经济学顶刊《Journal of Political Economy》线上正式发表。

Title: Policy Uncertainty in the Market for Coal Electricity: The Case of Air Toxics Standards

市场上煤炭发电的政策不确定性：以空气有毒物质标准为例

作者简介

Gautam Gowrisankaran

哥伦比亚大学

Ashley Langer

亚利桑那大学

张文丹

中国人民大学生态环境学院

摘要

Government policy uncertainty affects irreversible decisions including technology, adoption and exit.This paper quantifies uncertainty surrounding the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS).We estimate a dynamic oligopoly model for coal-fired electricity generators that recovers generators'beliefs regarding future MATS enforce-ment. We develop the Approximate Belief Oligopoly Equilibrium concept where player sunderstand that their decisions impact aggregate market states. MATS enforcement created substantial uncertainty: the perceived enforcement probability dropped to 43%. Resolving uncertainty early would increase profits by $1.39 billion but also pollution costs by 80.652-1.776 billion. Had exit been unlikely,resolving uncertainty early would have decreased pollution.

政府政策的不确定性会影响不可逆决策，包括技术采用和市场退出。本文量化了围绕《汞与空气有毒物质标准》（MATS）的不确定性。本文估计了一个针对燃煤发电厂的动态寡头竞争模型，以恢复发电厂对未来MATS执行的信念。本文提出了“近似信念寡头均衡”概念，在该概念下，市场参与者理解他们的决策会影响市场的整体状态。MATS的执行带来了重大不确定性：发电厂对其执行的主观概率下降至43%。如果能够及早消除这种不确定性，发电厂的利润将增加13.9亿美元，但污染成本也将增加80.652亿至177.6亿美元。若市场退出的可能性较低，那么及早消除不确定性反而会减少污染。

来源：学术圈