摘要：我国这一年的科技产品一个接一个，每个都让世界带来一点小小的震撼，有宇树的机器狗、机器人，有tiktok的全球流行，有六代机的出现，有无人机的遥遥领先，有芯片和光刻机的不断突破，有deepseek带来的新AI变革。这事身为一个在中国的局内人可能还感受不到其他国家

我国这一年的科技产品一个接一个，每个都让世界带来一点小小的震撼，有宇树的机器狗、机器人，有tiktok的全球流行，有六代机的出现，有无人机的遥遥领先，有芯片和光刻机的不断突破，有deepseek带来的新AI变革。这事身为一个在中国的局内人可能还感受不到其他国家的情绪。我有个在加拿大生活的朋友，他告诉现在西方媒体和学校里面全都是讨论中国的话题。此时，仍有美国网友提问说：到2030年，中国真的可以制造自己的飞机，半导体和电动汽车吗？我们看看各国网友的回答。

A List of China's Achievements from 2015 - 2025

2015年至2025年中国取得的成就清单

- **Domestic Fighter Aircraft Engines**

- **国产战斗机发动机**

- **Domestic On - board Radar**

- **国产机载雷达**

- **Domestic Avionics**

- **国产航空电子设备**

- **Domestic Wind Tunnel**

- **国产风洞**

- **Domestic Commercial Aircraft Body (Duralumin Material)**

- **国产商用飞机机身（硬铝材质）**

- **Domestic Aircraft Wheels**

- **国产飞机机轮**

- **Domestic Landing Gear**

- **国产起落架**

- **Completely dominant in the manufacturing of traditional chips (45nm and below process nodes)**

- **在传统芯片（45纳米及以下制程节点）制造领域完全占据主导地位**

- **Dominant in chip design (3nm and above process)**

- **在芯片设计（3纳米及以上制程）方面占据主导地位**

- **Domestic Stealth Technology**

- **国产隐身技术**

- **Domestic Rare Earth Refining Technology Dominance**

- **国产稀土精炼技术占据主导地位**

- **Domestic Green Energy Technologies - Hydrogen Energy, Batteries**

- **国产绿色能源技术——氢能、电池**

- **Domestic Nuclear Technology**

- **国产核技术**

- **Domestic Satellite Design and Manufacturing**

- **国产卫星设计与制造**

- **Domestic Satellite Constellation and Navigation**

- **国产卫星与导航**

- **Domestic 5G Equipment and Communication Advantages**

- **国产5G设备及通信优势**

In the past decade, China has reached the "equal level" or even been in a "dominant position" in all the above - mentioned fields.

在过去的十年中，中国达到了“同等水平”，甚至在上述所有领域中处于“主导地位”。

The Fields in Which China Plans to Reach an Equal Level by 2035 Are as Follows:

中国计划到2035年达到同等水平的领域如下：

- **Optical Instruments and Optoelectronics**

- **光学仪器与光电子**

- **Dominant in the manufacturing of non - traditional chips (7 - 28nm process nodes)**

- **在非传统芯片（7 - 28纳米制程节点）制造领域占据主导地位**

- **Domestic Supply Chain for GPU Chips**

- **GPU芯片的国产供应链**

- **Domestic 6G Equipment and Communication Advantages**

- **国产6G设备及通信优势**

- **Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) Equipment**

- **核磁共振成像（MRI）设备**

- **Immunotherapy Drugs for Cancer and Autoimmune Diseases**

- **用于癌症及自身免疫性疾病的免疫治疗药物**

- **Commercial Aircraft Engines**

- **商用飞机发动机**

- **Commercial Aircraft Body (Composite Materials)**

- **商用飞机机身（复合材料）**

- **Hypersonic Missiles**

- **高超音速导弹**

- **Advanced Stealth Technology**

- **先进隐身技术**

China's work is carried out in a planned manner. Looking at history, as long as something is stated in official documents and put into practice, it has achieved success. I believe that China has every reason to achieve these goals between 2025 and 2035.

中国的工作是有计划性的，就历史来看，只要出现在官方文件上并付诸实施的，都成功了，我认为中国完全有理由在2025 - 2035年间实现这些目标。

In contrast, in the Western world, politicians are eager to gain praise, so they will announce large - scale infrastructure projects, so that they can enjoy the glory and win votes. Therefore, they often announce projects before any actual work has been carried out. For example, the HS2 high - speed rail project proposed in the UK from London to Birmingham.

作为对照，在西方世界，政客们热衷于获取赞誉，所以他们会宣布大型基础设施项目，这样就能享受荣耀并赢得选票。因此，他们常常在实际工作尚未开展前就宣布项目。比如英国提议修建的从伦敦到伯明翰的高铁项目HS2。

This project was announced in the UK about 9 years ago, and the feasibility study had not been done at that time. As of 2019, the tracks had not been laid yet.

这个项目大约在9年前于英国宣布，当时可行性研究都还没做。截至2019年，铁轨都还未铺设。

The third runway of Heathrow Airport was announced to be built as early as the 1950s. By 2019, the third runway was still nowhere in sight.

希思罗机场的第三条跑道早在20世纪50年代就宣布要建了。到了2019年，第三条跑道仍然不见踪影。

The same is true for Berlin Airport. It was originally scheduled to open 20 years ago, but it is still under construction.

柏林机场也是如此，原本计划20年前开放，可到现在仍在建设中。

So what's the difference? In China, they will do all the preliminary research, complete all the feasibility studies and various basic work. In this way, the officials who announce the project can go to the construction site, pick up a shovel, and get an excellent photo - taking opportunity. Subsequently, the officials go home, and the construction teams enter the site to start construction.

那区别是什么呢？在中国，他们会做好所有前期调研、完成所有可行性研究以及各项基础工作，这样一来，宣布项目的官员就能前往建筑工地，拿起铲子，奠基，获得一个绝佳的拍照机会。随后，官员回家，施工队伍就进场开始建设。

The foundation of "Made in China 2025" can be traced back to the 1990s and the early 2000s. The same is true for China's high - speed rail. From 2009 to 2014, China built 10,000 kilometers of high - speed rail, which seems like an amazing miracle. But in fact, they completed all the feasibility studies in the early 2000s and also manufactured all kinds of machinery required for railway construction.

“中国制造2025” 的根基可以追溯到20世纪90年代和21世纪初。中国高铁也是一样。从2009年到2014年，中国建成了1万公里的高铁，这看起来就像一个惊人的奇迹。但实际上，21世纪初他们就完成了所有可行性研究，还制造了修建铁路所需的各类机械。

Of course,China could do it!

当然，中国可以做到！

Back to the topic. Since China can already manufacture aircraft, semiconductors, electric vehicles, etc. independently, what China needs to do next is to continuously promote the iteration of product research and development, design, and production. After all, the first step is always the hardest, and all that follows is just continuous iteration. On the other hand, China is the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories listed in the United Nations' industrial classification. This means that China has already taken the first step in all industrial categories. In other words, as long as China is willing, it will sooner or later be able to develop the (N + 1)-th generation of technology in all industries through iteration.

回到主题，既然中国已经能够自主制造飞机、半导体、电动汽车……那么中国接下来要做的就是不断推进产品的研发、设计和生产迭代。毕竟，万事开头难，后续不过是持续迭代而已。另一方面，中国是世界上唯一拥有联合国产业分类中全部工业门类的国家，这意味着中国在所有产业门类上都已经迈出了第一步。也就是说，只要中国愿意，迟早能够在所有产业上通过迭代开发出第N+1代技术。

Incidentally, the real question is not "Can China achieve the 'Made in China 2025' plan?" but "Can China withstand the pressure of economic blockade, political blockade, and even trade war from the United States during the process of completing the 'Made in China 2025' plan?"

顺便说一句，真正的问题不是“中国能否实现‘中国制造2025’计划？”，而是“中国在完成‘中国制造2025’计划的过程中，能否承受来自美国的经济封锁、政治封锁，甚至贸易战的压力？”

I firmly believe that China can do it, and the reasons are as follows:

我坚信中国能够做到，原因如下：

First, China is not Japan, and it will not compete with the United States only in the economic field.

其一，中国不是日本，不会仅在经济领域与美国竞争。

Second, China is not the Soviet Union, and it will not compete with the United States only in the political and military aspects.

其二，中国也不是苏联，不会只在政治和军事方面与美国抗衡。

Imposing a blockade on China cannot make the United States great again, while engaging in healthy competition with China can. Therefore, the United States needs China, just as China needs the United States. In fact, a Chinese leader once said that China and the United States are like a married couple. Even if they sometimes have grudges against each other, they have no choice but to co - exist.

对中国实施封锁无法让美国再次伟大，而与中国展开良性竞争却可以。所以，美国需要中国，就如同中国也需要美国。事实上，中国一位领导曾说过，中美就像夫妻，即便有时彼此心生嫌隙，却也别无选择，只能共处。

"Made in China 2025" is neither a joke nor an exaggerated propaganda slogan. It is merely a political expression used to describe the classic "make - or - buy" GDP challenge faced by China's long - term national economic policy and strategy planners in response to the impact of the real (i.e., inflation - adjusted) annual growth of China's middle class (as a whole) and the growth of average annual household income.

《中国制造2025》既不是一个笑话，也不是过分夸大的宣传口号。它只是一种政治性表述，用以描述中国长期国家经济政策和战略规划者在应对中国中产阶级（整体）实际（即经通胀调整后）逐年增长，以及家庭年均收入增长所带来的影响时，面临的经典 “自制还是外购” 的GDP挑战。

It is utterly absurd to think that a country with the world's largest middle - class population and the world's largest economy will always mainly import middle - class goods and services from other global manufacturing countries.

认为一个拥有世界上最大规模中产阶级，同时也是世界上最大经济体的国家，会一直主要从其他全球制造业国家进口面向中产阶级的商品和服务，这种想法简直荒谬至极。

This is especially true for a political economy like China that implements central planning and management. China foresees that with the growth of real overall economy, for every one - percentage - point (or a fraction thereof) increase in the income of China's middle class and the increase in the total number of middle - class households, the demand for products such as aircraft, semiconductors, electric vehicles, and middle - class - oriented services such as domestic railway, automotive, and air travel will rise.

对于像中国这样实行中央计划和管理的政治经济体来说，尤其如此。中国预见到，随着实际总体经济增长，中国中产阶级收入每增长一个百分点（或其一部分），以及中产阶级家庭总数的增加，对飞机、半导体、电动汽车等产品，以及国内铁路、汽车和航空旅行等面向中产阶级的服务的需求都会上升。

These growing demands can only be met by domestic manufacturing; the same goes for domestic middle - class - oriented services (such as airline operations, maintenance, repair, and overhaul). The domestic job opportunities created in the upstream and downstream of these middle - class products and services cannot be given away to foreign manufacturing, repair, or services. The investment of the Chinese government in the higher education and technical - school education of its citizens has always been aimed at acquiring the necessary technical knowledge.

这些不断增长的需求，除了依靠国内制造业，别无他法可以满足；国内面向中产阶级的服务（如航空公司运营、维护、修理和大修）也同样如此。在这些面向中产阶级的产品和服务的上下游所创造的国内就业机会，不能拱手让给外国制造、维修或服务。中国政府对公民高等教育和技术学校教育的投资，其目的一直以来就是为了获取所需的技术知识。

In short, by 2025, China, with a middle - class population of over 900 million, will not mainly rely on imports to meet the middle - class demand for goods and services (such as domestic and international commercial air travel and aircraft). It is unrealistic for foreigners to expect China's growth to continue along the path of relying on imports. China is not South Africa, Egypt, or Nigeria. The domestic market in China is simply too large.

简而言之，到2025年，拥有9亿多中产阶级人口的中国，不会主要通过进口来满足中产阶级对商品和服务的需求（比如国内和国际商业航空旅行以及飞机）。外国人期望中国的增长能继续沿着依赖进口的路线发展，这是不切实际的。中国不是南非、埃及或尼日利亚，中国国内市场实在太大了。

From the perspectives of macro - economy, national security, and foreign policy, China's leaders, social systems, and government governance institutions believe that trying to maintain a middle - class society that accounts for 67% to 80% of the country's total population by importing goods and services from abroad is fundamentally unreasonable and unsustainable. This is especially true in terms of the time - span they use to measure the appropriateness of policy choices.

从宏观经济、国家安全和外交政策的角度来看，中国的领导人、社会体系以及政府治理机构认为，试图通过从国外进口商品和服务，来维持一个占国家总人口67% 至80% 的中产阶级社会，从根本上来说是不合理且不可持续的。尤其是从他们衡量政策选择是否合适的时间跨度来看，更是如此。

Before Trump waved the tariff stick, people might not have paid much attention to "Made in China 2025". But after that, the possibility of the success of "Made in China 2025" has greatly increased.

在特朗普挥舞关税大棒之前，人们或许还不太在意“中国制造2025”。但从那之后，“中国制造2025”成功的可能性大幅提升。

Thank Trump.

感谢特朗普。

Although the political systems of China and the United States are different, the operation models of the two governments have similarities, and both need to deal with a large number of people's livelihood issues such as education, medical care, transportation and employment. Every government department is vying for the budget, but the budget is always insufficient.

尽管中美两国政治体制不同，但两国政府的运作模式有相似之处，都需要处理大量诸如教育、医疗、交通和就业等民生问题。每个政府部门都在争取预算，可预算总是不够用。

Of course, the demands of Chinese government departments will not be posted on Twitter.

当然，中国政府部门的诉求不会发布在推特上。

Both the Chinese and American governments need to retain the most important parts from numerous budget applications, cut some unnecessary budgets, and spend a lot of time discussing "controversial budgets".

中美两国政府都需要从众多预算申请中保留最重要的部分，削减一些不必要的预算，还要花大量时间讨论“有争议的预算”。

Before the Sino-US technological war, there were endless debates in China about budget investment in various industries. Many projects need to challenge European and American multinational enterprises and cost two to five times as much as the R & D costs of other countries to produce products, such as lithography machines. Do we really need to produce lithography machines by ourselves? The Netherlands has the most advanced lithography machines, and it is a peace-loving country. Isn't it better for us to directly buy cheaper and better lithography machines from the Netherlands and save money to increase the budget for education and medical care?

中美科技战前，中国国内针对各行各业的预算投入争论不休。许多项目需要挑战欧美跨国企业，要花费其他国家发明成本的两倍甚至五倍来生产产品，比如光刻机。我们真的需要自己生产光刻机吗？荷兰拥有最先进的光刻机，荷兰又是一个爱好和平的国家。我们直接从荷兰购买更便宜且更好的光刻机，省下钱来提高教育和医疗预算不好吗？

You see, the working modes of governments in different countries are very similar, all arguing about budgets.

你看，不同国家政府的工作模式很相似，都是围绕预算争论不休。

But Trump helped us stop this argument. He gave us a punch, making us understand that the United States is the world's number one power. If the United States doesn't let you buy lithography machines, you won't be able to.

但特朗普帮我们停止了这场争论。他给了我们一拳，让我们明白美国是世界头号强国。如果美国不让你买光刻机，你就买不到。

Although the United States does not produce lithography machines itself, it can prohibit the Netherlands from selling products to China. Because it is the world's number one power, because it controls the US dollar system, and because it has 5,000 military bases around the world.

尽管美国自己不生产光刻机，但它可以禁止荷兰向中国出售产品。因为它是世界头号强国，因为它掌控着美元体系，还因为它在全球拥有5000个军事基地。

China has no choice but to produce by itself, even if the cost is five or even ten times higher.

中国无法改变，所以只能自己生产，哪怕成本是原来的五倍甚至十倍。

Just like spaceships, aircraft carriers, high-speed railways, supercomputers and atomic bombs.

就像宇宙飞船、航空母舰、高铁、超级计算机、原子弹一样。

China has developed surprisingly in these fields where it has been embargoed. Although it is still not as good as the United States, it can at least be put into use.

中国在这些领域都曾遭受过禁运，但中国却出人意料地发展起来了。尽管还比不上美国，但至少能够投入使用。

Therefore, when the United States clearly proposed to ban China from developing "Made in China 2025", things could not be clearer.

因此，当美国明确提出要禁止中国发展“中国制造2025”时，事情就再清楚不过了。

China has realized that there is no need to discuss the importance and necessity of technological progress anymore, and it should just focus on doing it.

中国意识到无需再讨论科技进步的重要性和必要性，只管集中精力去做就行。

Of course, in order not to irritate Trump, China will definitely not publicize it widely, but just do its own thing silently.

当然，为了避免刺激特朗普，中国肯定不会大肆宣扬，只会默默做好自己的事。

Thank Trump again.

再次感谢特朗普。

来源：今涛拍案