海外之声 | IMF总裁最新演讲：关税和非关税壁垒正在重塑国际经济

摘要：2025年4月17日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）发布讲话稿，聚焦当前全球经济面临的结构性挑战与政策应对路径。全球贸易体系正经历深刻重构，贸易政策不确定性显著上升，金融市场波动加剧，关税与

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2025年4月17日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）发布讲话稿，聚焦当前全球经济面临的结构性挑战与政策应对路径。全球贸易体系正经历深刻重构，贸易政策不确定性显著上升，金融市场波动加剧，关税与非关税壁垒持续增加，国家安全考量愈发主导产业政策决策，全球化的信任基础受到削弱。上述变化正在重塑国际经济格局，要求各国在不确定性背景下加强政策协调和国内结构调整。

近期贸易紧张局势已对全球经济产生实质性影响。投资活动因关税波动与政策不确定性而延迟，复杂供应链结构放大了贸易壁垒对终端成本的传导，进口企业和消费者共同承担价格上升的成本。数据显示，美国的有效关税税率已升至数十年来最高水平，多边体系中的新补贴措施数量显著上升，非关税壁垒持续攀升。全球三大进口经济体——美国、欧盟与中国，其政策变化对外溢效应尤为突出，对新兴市场和低收入国家构成外部冲击。同时，海运路线选择、货物流转与企业投资规划均受到双边关税调整的强烈干扰，进一步加剧了金融市场的动荡与预防性储蓄的增加。

在政策层面，报告指出各国面临的改革压力持续加大，财政空间普遍收窄，需通过结构性财政改革重建政策缓冲。当前大多数国家公共债务水平显著高于数年前，预算调整需制定循序渐进且符合本国财政框架的路径。货币政策应继续保持灵活性与独立性，以应对部分经济体出现的通胀预期上行风险。同时，金融部门的系统性风险需加强监管与预警，特别是对非银行金融机构的监测与干预能力。新兴市场则被建议保持汇率弹性，以更好地吸收外部冲击。

宏观失衡亦构成当前主要议题之一。内部储蓄与投资比例失衡反映在外部经常账户差异上，成为加剧全球贸易紧张的根源之一。图示数据显示，各大经济体储蓄率与投资率分布存在显著差异，经常账户顺差与逆差国长期累积的失衡结构可能加剧全球脆弱性。例如，中国的私人消费占比偏低、社会保障体系不健全被视为内部需求不足的重要原因；欧盟面临银行联盟和资本市场整合滞后等结构性掣肘；美国则需削减财政赤字以推动联邦债务比下降。

报告亦强调，当前异常的金融市场指标变化，如美国国债收益率曲线“微笑形态”与美元阶段性贬值，是市场对政策不确定性的直接反应。即将发布的《世界经济展望》将下调全球经济增速预测，并上调部分国家的通胀预测，反映上述趋势所带来的综合影响。

在多极化趋势加剧的背景下，构建包容、韧性和公平的全球经济体系成为共同目标。重启关税下降趋势、削减非关税壁垒、缓解制度扭曲与强化分配政策，被视为应对结构性冲击与重建全球化信任机制的关键路径。

英文原文（节选）：

Toward a Better Balanced and More Resilient World Economy

Remarks by Kristalina Georgieva,

Managing Director, IMF

17 April 2025

In the context of rising global uncertainty, recent developments in trade and macroeconomic policy have significantly impacted the international economic landscape. Trade policy uncertainty has surged to record levels, accompanied by rising financial market volatility. As illustrated in Figure 1, global measures of trade policy uncertainty have spiked sharply in recent quarters. Simultaneously, global stock indices have experienced downturns, despite remaining elevated in valuation terms (Figure 2).

Figure 1

Figure 2

A structural shift in the global trading system is underway, reflecting deep-seated erosion of trust in multilateral institutions and trading norms. Global economic integration, while historically associated with poverty reduction and income gains, has also contributed to domestic dislocations. Communities affected by offshoring, suppressed wages due to global labor competition, and supply chain disruptions have generated widespread dissatisfaction with the global economic order.

Trade distortions have become increasingly prominent. As shown in Figure 3, progress toward a low and stable U.S. effective tariff rate stalled over the past decade, reversing the trend of convergence observed in the early 2000s. In parallel, the number of net new subsidy measures introduced by major jurisdictions has steadily increased (Figure 4), indicating a rising trend in non-tariff barriers.

Figure 3

Figure 4

The renewed Emphasis on national security in trade policy has led to a reorientation toward domestic production of strategic goods, such as semiconductors and steel. This has been accompanied by a broader shift from multilateralism to unilateral actions, contributing to heightened fragmentation.

The economic consequences are multifaceted:

Uncertainty and cost amplification: Complex supply chains amplify the effects of bilateral tariffs. The cost of a single input may be influenced by dozens of overlapping tariff regimes, making production planning and investment increasingly difficult. Global logistics systems face inefficiencies, with vessels rerouted and inventories delayed.

Immediate growth impact of trade barriers: As highlighted by recent empirical evidence, the rise in effective tariff rates—particularly in the U.S. (Figure 5)—has raised import costs, affecting corporate margins and consumer prices alike.

Figure 5

Long-term productivity effects: Protectionist policies reduce allocative efficiency, especially in smaller economies, where shielded sectors lose the pressure to innovate. Over time, special-interest lobbying for exemptions and subsidies undermines dynamic efficiency.

Spillover effects are significant. The world’s three largest importers—China, the European Union, and the United States—despite lower import-to-GDP ratios, exert substantial influence on global trade patterns (Figure 6). For smaller advanced and emerging economies, which are more trade-reliant, tighter financial conditions and diminished external demand translate into higher vulnerability. Low-income countries face additional challenges due to declining aid flows, as donor nations prioritize domestic spending.

Figure 6

Upcoming projections in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook will reflect revised assumptions: global growth downgrades are anticipated, though a recession is not projected, and inflation forecasts will be marked up in several jurisdictions. Recent financial market anomalies, such as a depreciating dollar and an upward-bending U.S. Treasury yield curve (Figure 7), signal growing stress and reinforce the importance of proactive policy responses.

Figure 7

Policy recommendations emphasize the need for structural reform and resilience-building:

fiscal policy: Given elevated public debt levels globally (Figure 8), gradual but credible fiscal consolidation is necessary. In cases of external shock, temporary and targeted support remains warranted.

Figure 8

Monetary and financial policy: Central banks are advised to maintain independence and data-responsive frameworks, particularly in economies with rising inflation expectations. Enhanced regulation is critical for banking systems, while increasing attention must be paid to systemic risks in non-bank financial institutions.

External and internal rebalancing: Structural drivers of macroeconomic imbalances, including divergent savings-investment dynamics, continue to influence current account positions (Figure 10–11). Policy efforts should focus on correcting these through domestic reforms.

Figure 10

Figure 11

Country-specific guidance is offered:

China: Priorities include stimulating private consumption, reducing industrial policy intensity, strengthening social safety nets, and addressing real estate vulnerabilities. Emphasis is also placed on facilitating the shift from manufacturing to services (Figure 12).

Figure 12

European Union: Proposals include fiscal expansion (particularly in Germany), deeper single market integration, and institutional reforms such as the completion of the banking and capital markets union.

United States: Recommended measures involve reducing the federal deficit to lower debt levels and address the structural current account imbalance.

The importance of international cooperation in a multipolar world is underlined. Reinvigorating dialogue among major economies, restoring progress toward tariff reduction, minimizing non-tariff distortions, and reinforcing distributive policies are considered essential steps toward building a more inclusive and resilient global economy.

来源

作者：

克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva，国际货币基金组织总裁）

来源：

国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund，IMF）

版面编辑｜王浩

责任编辑｜李锦璇、阎奕舟

主编｜安然、李婧怡

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