越览（83）——精读复刻论文的应用实例的理解与计算（8）

摘要：This issue will introduce the understanding and calculating the application example of the intensively read replica paper "emergen

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“越览（83）——精读复刻论文

《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的

应急决策方法》应用实例的理解与计算（8）。”

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Today, the editor brings the

"Yue Lan(83)—intensive reading replica paper

'Emergency decision-making method based on

multi-granularity probability language

and dual reference points

'Understanding and calculating

the application example (8)".

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一、内容摘要（Summary of Content）

本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读复刻论文《基于多粒度概率语言和双参照点的应急决策方法》应用实例的理解与计算（8）。

This issue will introduce the understanding and calculating the application example of the intensively read replica paper "emergency decision-making method based on multi-granularity probability language and dual reference points" in terms of mind maps, intensively read content, and knowledge supplementation.

二、思维导图（Mind mapping）

三、精读内容（Intensive reading content）

上周已经计算出了案例中效益型风险因素上预估效果的感知价值。

The perceived value of the predicted effect on the benefit risk factor in the case was calculated last week.

在现有研究的基础上，应进一步考虑应急决策组在预估概率时所表现出的扭曲行为特征。具体而言，当决策组选择可行方案Xj并将其付诸实施时，需要关注在关键风险因素di下，对于情景λq所作出的预估概率的收益感知。为了刻画这种感知特性，可以通过构建权重函数来反映决策组对不同风险情景的敏感程度以及其可能存在的主观偏差。

On the basis of existing research, we should further consider the distorted behavior characteristics of emergency decision-making groups in estimating probabilities. Specifically, when the decision-making group selects the feasible option Xj and implements it, it needs to pay attention to the payoff perception of the estimated probability of the scenario lambda q under the key risk factor di. In order to describe this perception characteristic, a weight function can be constructed to reflect the sensitivity of the decision-making group to different risk scenarios and its possible subjective biases.

这种权重函数不仅需要考虑情景发生的客观概率，还需结合决策组对风险收益的主观偏好，以捕捉决策者在风险评估过程中的非理性因素。这一过程对于准确模拟决策行为具有重要意义，尤其在应急管理情境中，风险与收益的感知权重可能直接影响最终决策的合理性和有效性。

This weighting function not only takes into account the objective probability of the occurrence of the scenario, but also combines the subjective preferences of the decision-making group on risk and return to capture the irrational factors of decision-makers in the process of threat and risk assessment. This process is of great significance for accurately simulating decision-making behavior, especially in emergency management scenarios, where the perceived weights of risk and reward may directly affect the rationality and effectiveness of the final decision.

本周将用代码实现预估概率的收益感知权重函数的复刻。

This week, we will code a replica of the revenue-aware weighting function for estimating probabilities.

The replica code is as follows:

接着使用式（21）计算不同可行方案实施时，面对不同情景在各项关键风险因素上评估概率的收益感知权重。表6中提供了采用不同可行方案情况下各项关键风险因素面对不同情景预估概率的感知权重。

Then use equation (21) to calculate the perceived weight of the benefits of evaluating the probability of each key risk factor in the face of different scenarios when implementing different feasible scenarios. Table 6 provides the perceived weight of the estimated probability of each key risk factor in the face of different scenarios under different feasible scenarios.

The running result is shown as follows:

四、知识补充（Knowledge supplement）

预估概率扭曲的行为特征通常源于人类在决策过程中对风险和不确定性的认知偏差。以下是主要原因的详细分析：

Behavioral characteristics of predictive probability distortion are often derived from human cognitive biases about risk and uncertainty in the decision-making process. Here is a detailed analysis of the main reasons:

1.心理偏差的影响（The impact of psychological biases）

决策者在应急情境中容易受到心理偏差的影响，例如损失规避和心理账户效应。研究表明，人类通常会高估低概率事件的发生可能性（如极端灾害）并低估高概率事件（如常规风险）的影响。这种偏差导致对概率的感知与客观实际不符，从而产生扭曲行为。

In emergency situations, policymakers are susceptible to psychological biases, such as loss aversion and psychological accounting effects. Research shows that humans often overestimate the likelihood of low-probability events (such as extreme disasters) and underestimate the impact of high-probability events (such as routine risks). This bias leads to perceptions of probability that do not match objective reality, resulting in distorted behavior.

2.有限理性假设（bounded rationality hypothesis）

根据行为经济学理论，决策者的认知能力和信息处理能力是有限的。面对复杂的风险情景时，决策者难以全面分析所有可能性，因此可能依赖简单的启发式规则（如可得性偏差和代表性偏差）进行概率评估。这种启发式决策容易引发系统性偏差，导致预估概率的扭曲。

According to behavioral economics theory, policymakers' cognitive and information-processing abilities are limited. Faced with complex risk scenarios, policymakers cannot fully analyze all possibilities, so they may rely on simple heuristic rules (such as availability bias and representation bias) for probability assessment. Such heuristic decisions tend to lead to systematic biases, leading to distortions in estimated probabilities.

3.时间压力与情境复杂性（Timepressure and situational complexity）

在应急管理场景中，时间紧迫和情境复杂性加剧了决策过程中的不确定性。决策者往往需要在有限的时间内快速做出判断，因此可能过度依赖主观经验或有限信息，而非基于全面的概率分析。这种情况下，主观感知的概率容易偏离客观概率。

In emergency management scenarios, time constraints and situational complexity exacerbate uncertainty in the decision-making process. Decision makers often need to make quick judgments in a limited time, so they may rely too much on subjective experience or limited information rather than on comprehensive probabilistic analysis. In this case, the subjective perceived probability easily deviates from the objective probability.

4.风险情绪效应

风险的感知常受到情绪的显著影响，尤其在高风险或高损失情境中。焦虑和恐惧等负面情绪可能导致决策者高估某些风险事件的发生概率，而忽视其他更具现实性的情景。

5.信息不对称或模糊性（Information asymmetry or ambiguity）

应急情境中的信息通常是不完全的或模糊的，这增加了决策的不确定性。在缺乏明确概率数据的情况下，决策者可能依赖主观判断，从而进一步放大概率扭曲的可能性。

Information in emergency situations is often incomplete or vague, which increases the uncertainty of decision-making. In the absence of clear probabilistic data, decision makers may rely on subjective judgments, further amplifying the potential for probability distortions.

6.社会与文化因素（Social and cultural factors）

不同的社会和文化背景也会影响决策者对风险和概率的理解。例如，某些文化可能更加注重规避风险，导致对低概率高损失事件的敏感度提高。这种文化因素可能通过群体决策进一步加剧预估概率的扭曲。

Different social and cultural contexts can also influence policymakers' understanding of risk and probability. For example, some cultures may place greater emphasis on risk aversion, leading to increased sensitivity to low-probability, high-loss events. Such cultural factors may further exacerbate distortions in estimated probabilities through group decision-making.

预估概率扭曲行为特征的产生是多种因素共同作用的结果，包括心理偏差、有限理性、情绪效应以及信息不完全等。在应急决策中，理解这些特征有助于设计更科学的决策支持工具，从而减轻主观偏差对决策质量的影响。

The predictive probability distortion behavior characteristics are the result of a combination of factors, including psychological bias, bounded rationality, emotional effects, and incomplete information. In emergency decision-making, understanding these characteristics can help to design more scientific decision support tools, thereby mitigating the impact of subjective bias on decision-making quality.

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