摘要：What changes have geopolitical tensions brought to the division of labor in globaltrade, investment and industrial chains, and wha

What changes have geopolitical tensions brought to the division of labor in globaltrade, investment and industrial chains, and what medium- and long-term constraints may these changes impose? How should businesses deal with the uncertainty brought about by this situation?

Ian GOLDIN

Former Vice President and Head of Policy, World Bank; Advisor to President Nelson Mandela; Former Chief Executive of Development Bank of Southern Africa

Geopolitics and the reduction in dependence on distant suppliers is increasing the focus on de-risking supply chains, even though this can mean a reliance on more suppliers and more trade. The COVID-19 pandemic raised awareness of the risks of dependence on one supplier as vulnerabilities in supply chains at times led to shortages.

Geopolitical tensions were further exacerbated by Russia-Ukraine War and the subsequent sanctions. This had negative consequences on European producers and particularly on German industry, which was highly reliant on Russian gas for its chemical and manufacturing processes. The increased costs of energy have accelerated the transformation of the German and other European economies. In the UK, Brexit has also had a significant impact, as well over half of trade was with the European Union, which is now more costly. The fact that the UK is no longer a bridge to European markets for investors has undermined investment and led to a slowing of UK economic growth and trade.

The re-election of President Trump in 2025 has far-reaching implications, with the threat of tariff being raised against a wide range of countries, including close allies with which the USA has long-standing free trade agreements. Mexico and Canada, along with the USA, benefited greatly from the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement and its subsequent evolution in 2019 into the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement. This is now under threat, as is the free trade agreement with the European Union and is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) agreement. The undermining of the World Trade Organization and the using of tariffs as an unpredictable tool of geopolitics risks creating a global trade war and severely curtailing global growth and poverty reduction, making it impossible to attain the SDGs. Consumers in the USA will also suffer greatly, as inflation and interest rates rise and inequality widens even more as poor people suffer most from slowing growth and higher prices.

Asia has benefited greatly from trade and investment and although tariff escalation will impact negatively on the entire world economy, the Asian economies are the most robust and able to absorb the shocks. The impact will be to increase investment and trade within the Asian region, and to slow growth in North America and Europe. Business should deal with the uncertainties by increasing investment in Asia, which is more predictable and offers higher returns.

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