摘要：Jakob Wilhelmus, Director in PGIM’s Thematic Research group, said there is no question the implementation of broad tariffs by the

Harry Wu, journalist for Southern Finance Omnimedia Corp (SFC)

PGIM Global Asset Management recently released a report called A NEW ERA OF globalization, which shows the world has entered a new era where Globalization has essentially splintered into two distinct and separate tracks.

Jakob Wilhelmus, Director in PGIM’s Thematic Research group, said there is no question the implementation of broad tariffs by the White House are reshuffling global supply chains and shifting trade patterns. These on-again / off-again tariff policies have raised immense uncertainty in corporate board rooms and markets as well. However, once the dust settles, what is most likely to emerge are two distinct tracks of global trade.

The first track of globalization, which has sharply decelerated if not come to a sputtering halt altogether, currently represents just 25% of global GDP but captures nearly all the media and political focus. Sectors in this so-called “small yard, high fence” approach include AI and high-end semiconductors, 5G networks, critical minerals, fossil fuels, EVs and batteries, as well as military technology. It is in these areas that de-globalization is occurring.

The Second globalization track, rarely mentioned in sensationalist media stories and often ignored in political discourse, continues to move forward at a high speed and represents roughly 75% of global GDP. On this track, a vast array of goods and services are still traded across borders based on comparative economic advantage – regardless of geopolitical rivalries and growing protectionist instincts.

When it comes to DeepSeek and advancements in the Chinese semiconductor sector, Jakob Wilhelmus said these highlight the astounding advancements China has made from manufacturing to cutting-edge technologies. Today, Chinese EVs are not following the trend set by US or European carmakers but their technology is what everyone else is trying to catch up to.

SFC: What impact do you think US' tariff policy will have on globalization trends? How will it influence the evolvement of the dual-track pattern discussed in the report?

Jakob Wilhelmus: Trump’s tariff policy accelerated what we define as the “new era of globalization.” There is no question the implementation of broad tariffs by the White House are reshuffling global supply chains and shifting trade patterns.

These on-again / off-again tariff policies have raised immense uncertainty in corporate board rooms and markets as well. However, once the dust settles, what is most likely to emerge are two distinct tracks of global trade.

The first track contains sectors that are imperative for national security – from semiconductors to energy, military technology, and critical minerals – which by our calculation accounts for roughly 25% of global GDP.

In fact, we have already seen de-globalization trends emerge in these areas before this year. Think about Europe’s energy policy following the Ukraine conflict or CHIPS and Science Act. This track is also distinct as many of its sectors are currently exempt from Trump’s initial tariff barrage.

The second track contains the remaining 75% of global GDP and includes the goods that fill our homes, closets and offices – from socks and sofas to tables and household electronics. Despite the current rhetoric from the White House, we expect economic imperatives will prevail in these sectors; efficiency and lower cost will once again drive production for these non-security related goods.

SFC: The report mentioned "despite the prospect of prolonged trade tensions, around 75% of global GDP remains on the 'fast track,' reliant on efficient global supply chains and not easily fenced in by national security concerns." Have you changed your views in light of the tariffs announcement, and why?

Jakob Wilhelmus: We have not changed our view for two reasons. First, the pure arithmetic of available workforce, living standards and economics prohibit any industrial country to quickly pull back overseas production and establish production domestically.

Second, the exemption of goods in the USMCA agreement is another indicator of just how hard, if not impossible, it is to cut off trade completely. Mexico and Canada are two of America’s three largest trading partners, their exclusion acknowledges the importance of both trade and the need for production driven by comparative advantages.

SFC: China's DeepSeek and other advances are becoming more and more obvious. How will China's technological progress affect the dynamics of the two tracks?

Jakob Wilhelmus: Great power rivalry and the need to be self-reliant in sectors critical for security is behind the de-globalization track. It is driven by the desire to be a global leader in vital industries like semiconductors and military technology but also their critical inputs, such as metals and minerals.

As for DeepSeek and advancements in the Chinese semiconductor sector, these highlight the astounding advancements China has made from manufacturing to cutting-edge technologies. Today, Chinese EVs are not following the trend set by US or European carmakers but their technology is what everyone else is trying to catch up to.

SFC: You once said (in the press release) that even if the US expands the scope of protected industries, about 80% of global trade still occurs outside the US, and companies in major industries will continue to pursue free trade and competitive advantages. What are the reasons for your judgment? What new features will emerge in the new stage of globalization?

Jakob Wilhelmus: Globalization, after all, has been one of the key reasons for the rise of the world’s wealth and prosperity over centuries. And no matter the current uncertainty around trade with the US, the economics of comparative advantages will prevail around the world. That is, Indonesia, Thailand, Brazil and Canada are not applying tariffs on each other. This does not mean that there cannot be any change in trade between other countries, but our research does not see a widespread turn towards tariffs.

However, the New Era of Globalization will see the emergence of new winners; countries that already have some manufacturing capabilities in place – such as India, Costa Rica, Morocco or Poland – and can use the friend-shoring momentum to their advantage.

Another set of winners will be countries that have large metals and mineral reserves and are not aligned with one great power allowing them to benefit from the critical role these commodities will take in a new world – for example, Australia or Chile.

For investors, it is important to not get carried away. Yes, we live in uncertain times and investors should focus on the immediate volatility and disruptions – for example by considering option-based hedging strategies that can help mitigate risks from volatile markets and correlation breakdowns. But for long term success, investors will have to incorporate elements of this dual-track era of globalization into their portfolio.

来源：指间联盟商务经理-吴哲