摘要：Li Lu,a renowned investor and practitioner of value investing,is known for his profound philosophical thinking and commitment to l

作者：阿奇

Li Lu's Value Investing Methodology Overview（Complete Chinese-English Edition）

李录，著名投资人、价值投资践行者，以深厚的哲学思考和长期主义视角闻名。

Li Lu,a renowned investor and practitioner of value investing,is known for his profound philosophical thinking and commitment to long-termism.

他在投资方法上融合了格雷厄姆、巴菲特与芒格的智慧，强调理性、自律与深入研究的重要性。

His investment approach integrates the wisdom of Benjamin Graham,Warren Buffett,and Charlie Munger,emphasizing rationality,self-discipline,and deep research.

他相信，真正成功来自于理解自身局限，耐心等待高确定性的机会，并在不断学习中拓展能力圈。

He believes that true success stems from understanding one's own limitations,patiently waiting for high-certainty opportunities,and continuously expanding one's circle of competence through learning.

他的实践不仅验证了价值投资的力量，也为复杂多变的世界提供了一套清晰而朴素的行动指南。

His practices not only validate the power of value investing but also offer a clear and pragmatic guide for navigating a complex and ever-changing world.

核心信念：价值投资+长期主义+深度研究+认知自我

Core Beliefs:Value Investing+Long-Termism+Deep Research+Self-Awareness

一、价值投资的四个核心理念

的严格遵循

Strict Adherence to the Four Core Principles of Value Investing

1.股票是公司的部分所有权。

Stocks Represent Ownership in a Business

股票不仅仅是可交易的证券，它代表的是对公司所有权的证书。

Stocks are not merely tradable securities;they represent ownership certificates in a company.

投资股票实际上是投资一家公司，公司创造价值，部分所有者分享价值增长带来的利益。这是可持续的“正道”。

Investing in stocks means investing in a business,sharing in the value created by the company.This forms the sustainable"right path."

一个社会只要允许股权交换，价值投资就存在。

As long as equity exchanges are permitted in society,value investing remains viable.

2.市场服务于我，而非我的老师。

The Market Serves Me,It Is Not My Teacher

市场的存在只是为投资者提供买卖机会的工具。

The market exists merely as a tool to provide buying and selling opportunities for investors.

市场价格不等于内在价值，不能把市场当作老师，只能利用它。市场的存在目的在于发现人性的弱点。

Market price does not equal intrinsic value;the market should be utilized,not worshiped.Its fluctuations expose human weaknesses.

市场先生的概念，即市场情绪无常，可以在它神经质或极度情绪化时利用它买卖。

The idea of"Mr.Market"illustrates that one should take advantage of the market’s mood swings.

那些“高大上”的交易理论说法都是杂音。

Sophisticated trading theories are often just noise.

3.安全边际

Margin of Safety

投资是对未来的预测，预测不可能百分之百准确。

Investment involves forecasting the future,and forecasts are never 100%accurate.

因此，买入价格必须大大低于公司的内在价值，预留很大的安全空间。

Thus,buying prices must be significantly below intrinsic value to allow a wide margin of safety.

安全边际也能在不太懂的情况下提供保护。

This margin also protects against imperfect knowledge.

在缺乏经验时，他从寻找有安全边际（如低市净率）的便宜股票开始。这是投资中最主要的困难之一。

Early in his career,Li Lu started by seeking cheap stocks with strong safety margins,recognizing that finding true safety margins is one of investing’s greatest challenges.

4.能力圈

Circle of Competence

预测能力有限，因此只能在自己真正理解、能够界定边界的狭小范围内投资。

The ability to predict is limited,so you can only invest within a narrow range of what you really understand and can define the boundaries.

知道自己不懂什么，比知道自己懂什么更重要。

Knowing what you don't know is more important than knowing what you do know.

能力圈必须非常狭小，边界要界定清楚。

The circle of competence must be very narrow,with well-defined boundaries.

在能力圈外，预测能力很难建立。

Outside the circle of competence,predictive ability is difficult to build.

能力圈的建立需要长期刻苦的学习和努力，它是投资中最主要的困难之一。

The establishment of the circle of competence requires long and hard study and effort,and it is one of the main difficulties in investing.

通过兴趣来定义和扩展能力圈。

Define and expand the circle of competence through interests.

要投资于你真正知道的东西。

To invest in what you really know.

理解公司的竞争优势及其可持续性，对难以预测的行业或公司要避免。

Understand the company's competitive advantage and its sustainability,and avoid industries or companies that are difficult to predict.

能力圈是随着学习和经验一点点变大的。

The circle of competence gets bigger little by little with learning and experience.

二、长期投资与复利效应

Long-Term Investing and the Power of Compounding

价值投资是一条漫长但最终能够通向成功的“大道”或“正道”。

Value investing is a long but ultimately successful“highway”or"right path."

李录强调要长期持有，依靠公司内在价值的增长获得回报。

Li Lu stresses the importance of holding investments for the long term,relying on intrinsic value growth for returns.

对复利的力量要有信念，抓住那些能够提供复利增长的机会。成功的道路可能需要15年以上。

One must have unwavering faith in the power of compounding and seize opportunities that offer exponential growth,understanding that true success may take over 15 years.

长期投资使得交通不堵塞，走的人寥寥无几，是愿意走艰苦道路的人的机会。

Long-term investing is a road less traveled—and precisely because of that,it offers great opportunity.

三、深入研究与基本面分析

In-Depth Research and Fundamental Analysis

作为投资者，核心工作是预测公司未来的经济表现，即对公司基本面进行分析。

The core task of an investor is to forecast a company's future economic performance through fundamental analysis.

需要弄清楚公司如何赚钱、为什么赚钱、未来能赚多少，以及在竞争中的地位和优势（护城河）。

One must understand how the company earns money,why it earns money,how much it can earn in the future,and its competitive position and moat.

研究方法像调查记者一样，需要快速搜集和整理数据，探究每一个细枝末节，对任何事物都保持好奇心。

Research should be conducted like investigative journalism—collecting and synthesizing information rapidly,probing every detail,and maintaining a strong sense of curiosity.

研究是耗时且艰难的，需要大量时间去了解公司。

It is a time-consuming and difficult process.

绝大部分企业难以预测，需要选择那些更可预测的行业和优秀的企业。

Most businesses are hard to predict,so the focus should be on highly predictable industries and outstanding companies.

四、基于兴趣的学习方法

Learning Guided by Interest

让自己的兴趣引导学习方向。

Let genuine interest guide the direction of learning.

采用科学的方法（可证实、逻辑清晰、有解释力和预测力），保持诚实的态度，一点一滴积累知识。

Adopt a scientific approach—verifiable,logically clear,explanatory,and predictive—while maintaining honesty and a steady accumulation of knowledge.

现实生活中的问题多是统计学问题，需要学好统计。

Many real-world problems are fundamentally statistical;mastering statistics is essential.

强烈兴趣能让你在竞争中更有效率地积累知识。

Strong passion allows for more efficient knowledge accumulation and offers a competitive advantage.

五、客观评估与知己所不知

Objective Assessment and Knowing What You Don’t Know

在投资决策中，要对自己的知识和能力保持诚实，明确知道自己理解的部分和不理解的部分。

In investment decision-making,it is crucial to be honest about one’s knowledge and capabilities—clearly distinguishing what one understands from what one does not.

对于难以评估的因素（如管理层），如果无法准确判断，就不要将其纳入决策。

For factors that are difficult to evaluate(such as management quality),if one cannot accurately assess them,they should be excluded from decision-making.

要通过训练自己，具备反驳最聪明反对者的能力，才能说自己理解了某个观点（这是查理·芒格的方法，李录学习并应用）。

True understanding comes when one can withstand the strongest counterarguments—an approach Li Lu learned and applied from Charlie Munger.

六、处理错误

Dealing with Mistakes

错误不可避免，包括违反价值投资原则、信息不准确、洞见有误等。

Mistakes are inevitable,whether due to violations of value investing principles,inaccurate information,or flawed insights.

知错是前提，虽然来源未具体阐述处理方法，但清醒认识错误的存在本身至关重要。

Recognizing mistakes clearly is the first and crucial step,even though specific error-handling methods are not always elaborated.Awareness and acknowledgment are fundamental.

七、卖出决策

Sell Discipline

除了发现错误或估值达到极端疯狂程度外，投资组合构建是不断优化机会成本的过程。

Apart from identifying mistakes or encountering extremely irrational valuations,selling decisions are driven by the continuous optimization of opportunity costs.

发现更好的投资机会，也会导致原持仓的卖出。

Discovering a better investment opportunity naturally leads to selling existing holdings.

八、应对市场波动与危机

Handling Market Volatility and Crises

股价下跌不是风险，而是机会，可以买到便宜的股票。

A drop in stock prices is not a risk but an opportunity to buy at a discount.

真正的风险是资本的永久性丧失。

True risk lies in the permanent loss of capital.

市场波动可以暴露投资者自身的弱点，应当以理智心态应对。

Market volatility tends to expose investors’inner weaknesses and should be approached with rationality and composure.

九、选客户的重要性

The Importance of Client Selection

为了坚持价值投资的长期主义和原则，需要选择理解并接受这种理念的客户。

To adhere to value investing’s long-term principles,it is essential to select clients who understand and embrace this philosophy.

要避免那些追求短期业绩和低波动性的客户，因为迎合他们会导致偏离正道、进行投机。

Clients chasing short-term returns or low volatility should be avoided,as pandering to them leads to deviation and speculation.

李录挑剔客户，只管理理解并承诺长期投资的资金，从而摆脱华尔街投资者对投资策略的限制。

Li Lu carefully selects clients,managing only funds committed to long-term investing,thus freeing himself from the pressures of typical Wall Street investors.

十、地理分配基于机会和兴趣

Geographic Allocation Based on Opportunity and Interest

在投资的地区分配上没有先入为主的标准，而是跟随机会和兴趣走，聚焦于自己更了解的地区（如亚洲和美国）。

There are no preconceived standards for geographic allocation;instead,investments follow where opportunities and interests lie,focusing on regions where one possesses deeper understanding,such as Asia and the United States.

十一、投资组合构建是一个

优化机会成本的过程

Portfolio Construction as an Opportunity Cost Optimization Process

始终将现金作为机会成本，任何新的投资都必须提高整个组合的风险调整后回报率。

Cash is always treated as the baseline opportunity cost.Any new investment must enhance the portfolio's overall risk-adjusted returns.

这是一个持续优化、动态调整的过程。

Portfolio construction is thus a continuous and dynamic optimization process.

来源：松果生活一点号