摘要：安德烈斯・马丁内斯 - 费尔南德斯（Andrés Martínez-Fernández）是传统基金会艾利森国家安全中心负责拉丁美洲事务的高级政策分析师。在此职位上，他领导传统基金会关于美国对拉美政策的研究工作，围绕经济发展、对外援助、跨国有组织犯罪，以及中国共

曾梓洇：Venezuela’s Aggression Toward Guyana Must End

安德烈斯・马丁内斯 - 费尔南德斯（Andrés Martínez-Fernández）是传统基金会艾利森国家安全中心负责拉丁美洲事务的高级政策分析师。在此职位上，他领导传统基金会关于美国对拉美政策的研究工作，围绕经济发展、对外援助、跨国有组织犯罪，以及中国共产党和其他域外行为体的恶意活动等议题开展研究并与受众互动。

加入传统基金会之前，安德烈斯曾在一家全球领先的市场情报公司担任分析师，为跨国公司高管提供关于拉丁美洲政治及宏观经济风险的咨询。

此前，他在美国企业研究所担任研究员，撰写了大量关于美国对委内瑞拉制裁、墨西哥和哥伦比亚跨国有组织犯罪，以及其他美拉政策议题的报告和出版物。他还曾为美洲国家组织及拉美政治团体担任顾问。

他的文章发表于《外交政策》《洛杉矶时报》《世界政治评论》《国会山报》《真实清晰世界》《国家利益》和《美洲季刊》等平台。

安德烈斯拥有约翰・霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院拉丁美洲研究与国际经济学硕士学位，以及佛罗里达国际大学历史学学士学位。

威尔逊・比弗（Wilson Beaver）是传统基金会艾利森国家安全中心负责国防预算的高级政策顾问。在此职位上，他围绕美国国防预算的充足性、构成及特性开展研究、撰写文章并与受众互动，同时支持该中心促进美国强大国防的使命。

2023 年加入传统基金会之前，威尔逊曾担任参议院小企业委员会资深成员兰德・保罗（Rand Paul）的政策顾问。在委员会任职期间，他参与了《2022 年小企业创新研究与技术转移法案延期法案》相关工作，聚焦国防创新 grants 的研究安全议题（SBIR/STTR 计划）。

在此之前，威尔逊曾在美国陆军担任士官和团队领导。服役期间，他作为伞兵隶属于驻意大利维琴察的第 173 空降旅战斗队，参与了北约在欧洲的多项演习与行动，并在 “坚定决心行动” 中部署至伊拉克。

威尔逊拥有乔治城大学外交事务硕士学位、乔治梅森大学国际安全硕士学位，以及路易斯安那州立大学国际研究学士学位（辅修德语）。2009-2010 年，他通过美国国务院的国家安全语言计划在俄罗斯生活学习。他累计在意大利、土耳其、俄罗斯、奥地利、荷兰和法国等国家生活过九年，精通俄语、法语和德语。

Guyanese President Irfaan Ali and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio shake hands as they meet in Georgetown, Guyana, on March 27, 2025.

2025 年 3 月 27 日，圭亚那总统伊尔凡・阿里与美国国务卿马可・鲁比奥在圭亚那乔治敦会面时握手。

Key Takeaways

1.Rubio warned that any military action by Nicolás Maduro’s regime against Guyana would result in a “very bad day” for Venezuela.

2.That must translate into intensified diplomatic pressure, more targeted sanctions against Venezuelan officials, and deepened cooperation with Guyana.

3.Stopping Venezuela’s aggression now is not just in Guyana’s national security interest—it is also in the interest of the United States and of the whole hemisphere.

1.鲁比奥警告称，尼古拉斯・马杜罗政权对圭亚那采取的任何军事行动，都将让委内瑞拉迎来 “非常糟糕的一天”。
2.这必须转化为加大外交压力、对委内瑞拉官员实施更有针对性的制裁，以及深化与圭亚那的合作。
3.当下阻止委内瑞拉的斗争，不仅符合圭亚那的国家安全利益 —— 也符合美国及整个美洲的利益。

美国国务卿马尔科・卢比奥近期对圭亚那的访问传递了一个强有力的信号：委内瑞拉的斗争行为不会不受约束。

在圭亚那首都乔治敦发表讲话时，卢比奥警告称，尼古拉斯・马杜罗政权对圭亚那采取的任何军事行动，都将让委内瑞拉迎来 “非常糟糕的一天”。他的言论反映出国际社会对委内瑞拉在该地区不断升级的挑衅行为 —— 尤其是其就长期存在争议、资源丰富的埃塞奎博地区恐吓圭亚那的努力 —— 与日俱增的担忧。

卢比奥国务卿的访问正值紧张局势加剧之际，其标志是一艘委内瑞拉海军舰艇近期侵入圭亚那领海。这种公然的恐吓行为，是委内瑞拉对这个较小邻国宣示主导权、觊觎本不属于它的近海石油资源的更大规模行动的一部分。为了地区稳定和法治，美国及其盟友必须果断行动，支持圭亚那。

埃塞奎博地区约占圭亚那领土的三分之二，长期以来一直是委内瑞拉领土收复主义野心的目标。但在埃克森美孚等国际公司在圭亚那近海发现大量石油后，马杜罗政权对这一争端的紧迫感加剧了。圭亚那此前曾是拉美最贫穷的国家之一，近年来经济飞速增长，成为全球发展最快的经济体之一。

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这些领土主张不仅有政治动机，而且缺乏法律依据。1899 年支持圭亚那的仲裁裁决仍得到国际认可。委内瑞拉拒绝这一裁决、拒绝通过法律渠道建设性参与的行为，构成了国际法院认定的对国际准则的违反。

2024 年，委内瑞拉对圭亚那的斗争行为升级：马杜罗在发起要求委内瑞拉人投票决定是否将埃塞奎博纳入本国主权的公投后，向边境增派军队。投票前，加拉加斯开展了持续的宣传活动，甚至包括政府支持的 “埃塞奎博音乐节”，以及生态社会主义部制作的歌曲《埃塞奎博是我们的》。

与此形成对比的是，圭亚那一直遵循正当的外交途径，目前正通过国际法院寻求解决方案。

不幸的是，马杜罗政权 —— 急于转移对其经济崩溃的注意力 —— 正在推行鲁莽的扩张主义。尽管坐拥全球最大已探明石油储量，委内瑞拉却因数十年的社会主义管理不善、腐败和专制统治而陷入崩溃。本月，由于特朗普政府对加拉加斯这个破坏稳定的毒枭政权施加新压力并追究责任，马杜罗在委内瑞拉经济举步维艰之际宣布进入经济紧急状态。

然而，马杜罗对委内瑞拉经济的管理不善才是导致委内瑞拉人民困苦的主要原因，过去十年间已有超过 700 万委内瑞拉人逃离该国。马杜罗对与美国或邻国和平共处毫无兴趣，他只想着掠夺邻国的繁荣，转移对国内失败的注意力。

美国必须以强硬态度回应。特朗普政府通过卢比奥等官员已正确表明坚定立场，现在必须将其转化为具体行动：加大外交压力，对委内瑞拉军方和政治官员实施更有针对性的制裁，深化与圭亚那的军事和经济合作。

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美国南方司令部（SOUTHCOM）也应按美国国防部的建议，扩大在该地区的联合安全倡议。特别是与圭亚那的军事合作 —— 此前一直相当有限 —— 正日益符合美国和圭亚那的共同国家利益。近年来，双方合作已有所扩大，2023 年底，南方司令部与圭亚那国防军在圭亚那境内开展了联合军事飞行演习，以回应委内瑞拉的威胁。

圭亚那国防军装备不足，但乔治敦现政府已在着手提升其保卫边境的能力，2024 年的国防预算较前一年增长 85%。在可能和可行的情况下，美国应通过对外军售等方式，帮助圭亚那国防军更好地装备自身以实现自卫。

地区组织也发挥着关键作用。美洲国家组织（OAS）应继续公开确认圭亚那的领土完整，加勒比共同体（CARICOM）应团结成员国，通过协调一致的外交和经济支持声援乔治敦。

圭亚那完全有权捍卫自身主权和经济增长，抵御邻国垂死的社会主义专制政权。美国、加勒比共同体及其他伙伴和盟友必须确保委内瑞拉的斗争行为遭遇统一抵制。尽管外交和国际仲裁仍是重要工具，威慑同样必不可少。马杜罗必须明白，持续的敌意将付出代价。

阻止委内瑞拉的斗争不仅符合圭亚那的国家安全利益，也符合美国和整个西半球的利益。

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s recent visit to Guyana sent a powerful message that Venezuela’s aggression will not go unchecked.

Speaking in Guyana’s capital city of Georgetown, Rubio warned that any military action by Nicolás Maduro’s regime against Guyana would result in a “very bad day” for Venezuela. His remarks reflect growing concern over Venezuela’s escaLating provocations in the region, especially its efforts to intimidate Guyana over the long-disputed, resource-rich Essequibo region.

Secretary Rubio’s visit comes amid rising tensions, marked by the recent incursion of a Venezuelan naval vessel into Guyana’s territorial waters. This blatant act of intimidation is part of a more extensive campaign by Venezuela to assert dominance over its smaller neighbor and lay claim to offshore oil resources that do not belong to it. For the sake of regional stability and the rule of law, the United States and its allies must act decisively in support of Guyana.

The Essequibo region, which makes up about two-thirds of Guyana’s territory, has long been the target of Venezuela’s irredentist ambitions. But this dispute has taken on new urgency for the Maduro regime following significant oil discoveries by ExxonMobil and other international firms operating in Guyana’s offshore waters. Guyana, previously one of the poorest countries in Latin America, has enjoyed tremendous economic growth in recent years, becoming one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

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These territorial claims are not only politically motivated but also legally unfounded. The 1899 Arbitral Award, which settled the boundary in Guyana’s favor, remains internationally recognized. Venezuela’s rejection of that ruling and its refusal to engage constructively through legal channels constitute a violation of international norms, as identified by the International Court of Justice.

In 2024, Venezuela ramped up aggression against Guyana, moving troops to the border following a referendum called by Maduro asking Venezuelans whether they wanted to establish Venezuelan sovereignty over Essequibo. A sustained propaganda campaign by Caracas preceded the vote. This even included a state-sponsored music festival called “Essequibo Fest,” and a song produced by the Ministry of Ecosocialism called “Essequibo is ours.”

In contrast, Guyana has followed the appropriate diplomatic path and is currently pursuing a resolution through the ICJ.

Unfortunately, Maduro’s regime—desperate to distract from the collapse of its economy—is pursuing reckless expansionism. Despite sitting atop the world’s largest proven oil reserves, Venezuela has been driven into ruin by decades of socialist mismanagement, corruption, and authoritarianism. This month, Maduro has declared an economic emergency as the Venezuelan economy struggles, thanks to new pressure and accountability from the Trump administration against the destabilizing narco-regime in Caracas.

Nonetheless, Maduro’s mismanagement of Venezuela’s economy is the primary cause of the hardships of the Venezuelans, causing more than seven million Venezuelans to flee the country over the past decade. Maduro is not interested in peaceful coexistence with the United States or its neighbors; he is interested in looting his neighbor’s prosperity and distracting from his own failures at home.

The United States must respond with strength. The Trump administration—through voices like Secretary Rubio—has rightly signaled a firm stance. That must translate into concrete actions: intensified diplomatic pressure, more targeted sanctions against Venezuelan military and political officials, and deepened military and economic cooperation with Guyana.

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The Guyana Defense Force is underequipped, but the current government in Georgetown is already moving to increase its capacity to defend Guyana’s border, with a defense budget in 2024 that marked an 85 percent increase over the previous year. Where possible and practical, the United States should look for ways to help the Guyana Defense Force better equip itself for self-defense through foreign military sales.

Regional organizations also play a crucial role. The Organization of American States (OAS) should continue to affirm Guyana’s territorial integrity publicly, and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) should rally its members to support Georgetown through coordinated diplomatic and economic support.

Guyana has every right to defend its sovereignty and economic growth against the moribund, socialist autocracy next door. The United States, CARICOM, and other partners and allies must ensure that Venezuela’s aggression is met with unified resistance. While diplomacy and international arbitration remain essential tools, deterrence is equally necessary. Maduro must understand that continued hostility will come at a cost.

Stopping Venezuela’s aggression now is not just in Guyana’s national security interest—it is also in the interest of the United States and of the whole hemisphere.

来源：非常道