摘要：卡林·鲍曼（Karlyn Bowman），是一位政治保守的美国编辑兼舆论分析师。她目前是美国企业研究所的高级研究员，研究美国公众对各种问题的看法，包括经济、税收、环境和妇女的态度。。她于1979年至1990年担任《公众舆论》的执行编辑，并于1990年至1995

卡林·鲍曼（Karlyn Bowman），是一位政治保守的美国编辑兼舆论分析师。她目前是美国企业研究所的高级研究员，研究美国公众对各种问题的看法，包括经济、税收、环境和妇女的态度。。她于1979年至1990年担任《公众舆论》的执行编辑，并于1990年至1995年担任《美国企业》的创始编辑。

Karlyn Bowman is a politically conservative American editor and public opinion analyst. She is currently a senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, studying the American public's views on various issues, including the economy, taxation, environment, and attitudes towards women.. She served as the executive editor of Public Opinion from 1979 to 1990 and as the founding editor of American Enterprise from 1990 to 1995.

正文一：

4 月，人口普查局发布了 2024 年选举登记和投票报告。这些数据可以查看许多选民特征，例如种族和民族、性别、年龄、家庭收入等等。

选民的趋势数据很有价值，但我对人口普查在本系列中包含的另一个问题特别感兴趣。人口普查还询问已登记但未投票的人为什么不投票。我之所以关注这个问题，是因为每个选举季都有新闻报道声称投票存在重大困难或障碍。这些担忧以及其他问题说服了民主党人在拜登总统任期开始时提出立法，这将使选举的许多方面联邦化。这项立法在众议院而不是参议院获得通过，将要求各州提供自动选民登记，建立当天登记和投票，实施两周的提前投票，并扩大邮寄投票。今年3月，特朗普总统最近发布了一项《选举诚信行政命令》，其中要求提供公民身份证明才能投票。预计会有法庭挑战。

新的人口普查数据并未表明障碍是非选民不投票的重要甚至次要原因。在查看数据之前，需要对数据进行警示说明。人口普查数据就是我们所说的“召回”数据，这意味着人口普查在选举后进入现场，询问人们是否进行了登记和投票。许多人仍然给出他们认为公民正确的回答，并告诉人口普查访问员他们投票了，而实际上有些人没有。尽管如此，学术界和其他人仍广泛使用这个人口普查版本来显示按特定特征划分的投票趋势。自 1964 年以来，人口普查一直在为每次全国选举提供这些宝贵的数据。

人口普查数据中的未选民已经采取了登记的步骤，但他们仍然没有投票。对 2024 年这个群体的首要解释是他们 “不感兴趣”，近十分之二的选民 （19.7%） 给出了这样的回答。其次是太忙 （17.8%），不喜欢候选人或竞选问题 （14.7%）。疾病或残疾由 12 人选择。4% 和 7.4% 的人说他们不在城里。4% 的人告诉采访者，他们只是忘记了。

非投票者之间存在一些不足为奇的亚组差异。在 65 岁及以上的群体中，有 35% 的人表示疾病或残疾使他们无法投票，而只有 2%。8%对于最年轻可能更健康的年龄组，即 18-24 岁的人，前三个回答是相同的，白人、黑人和西班牙裔的回答相同，但黑人和西班牙裔非投票者比白人更有可能说他们不感兴趣。高中毕业生给出不感兴趣的回答的可能性略高于拥有学士学位或以上的人。

至于可能的投票障碍，人口普查报告中 3.6% 的人表示他们有登记问题，2.4% 的人表示他们的投票地点不方便，2.2% 的人表示交通问题。这些回答补充了 2024 年 PRRI 民意调查的回答。不到 2% 的人表示他们在投票时遇到了障碍，例如被告知他们没有正确的 ID，或者单独说，尽管他们已经注册，但他们的名字不在名单上。1% 的人表示他们受到骚扰或困扰。许多选民遇到的一个问题是排长队 （17%），地方选举官员可以努力纠正这个问题。

缺乏严重的投票障碍是民意调查中长期存在的发现。仅举一个例子，ABC 新闻和哈佛大学 1983 年的一份报告仔细研究了可能的和不太可能的选民。ABC的杰夫·奥尔德曼（Jeff Alderman）写道，这两个群体“都没有意识到在登记或选举过程中投票存在重大的后勤障碍。他们通常对投票程序感到满意。“在这项民意调查中，类似数量的未投票者给出了人口普查所跟踪的'太忙'和'排长队'的回答。从那时起的其他研究证实，障碍对绝大多数公民来说并不是一个重大问题。

那么，为什么我们在选举年听到这么多关于投票障碍的消息呢？首先，我们应该了解真正的障碍并纠正它们，因为投票很重要，它让人们对政府的运作方式有发言权。检查提议的更改以查看它们是否会使系统更好地工作也总是值得的。但似乎两党都利用这个问题来试图获得政治优势——吸引他们的基础选民并扩大他们的吸引力。但是，让联邦政府更多地参与一个需要一些改进但在全国范围内运作良好的系统，至少在我看来是一个大错误。

正文二：

In April, the Census released its report on registration and voting in the 2024 election. The data make it possible to look at many voter characteristics such as race and ethnicity, gender, age, family income, and much more.

The trend data on voters is valuable, but I'm especially interested in a different question the Census includes in this series. The Census also asks people who are registered but didn't vote why they didn't do so. I focus on this question because of the drumbeat of news stories each election season claiming there are significant difficulties or impediments to voting. Those concerns among others persuaded Democrats to introduce legislation at the beginning of President Biden's term which would have federalized many aspects of elections.The legislation, which passed the House but not the Senate,would have required states to provide automatic voter registration, established same day registration and voting, put in place two weeks of early voting, and expand vote by mail. In March,President Trump recently issued an Election Integrity Executive Order that would require, among other things, proof of citizenship to vote. Court challenges are expected.

The new Census data do not suggest that impediments are a significant or even minor reason why nonvoters don't vote. Before reviewing the data,a cautionary note about the data is in order. The Census data are what we call "recall" data,which means the Census goes into the field after the election and asks people if they were registered and voted. Many people still give what they see as the civically correct response and tell Census interviewers that they voted, when in fact some did not. Still, this Census release is widely used by academics and others to show trends in voting by specific characteristics. The Census has been providing this invaluable data for every national election since 1964.

Nonvoters in the Census data have already taken the step to register, yet still they don't vote. The top explanation for this group in 2024 was that they were＂not interested" with nearly two in ten voters, 19.7%,giving this response. That was followed by being too busy (17.8%), and not liking the candidates or campaign issues (14.7%). Illness or disability was chosen by 12. 4% and 7. 4% said they were out of town. Four percent told interviewers they simply forgot.

There were some unsurprising subgroup differences among nonvoters. Thirty-five percent of those in the 65 and over group said illness or disability prevented them from voting compared to 2. 8%for the youngest presumably healthier age group, those ages 18-24.The top three responses were the same for whites,blacks and Hispanics, but black and Hispanic nonvoters were more likely than whites to say they weren't interested. High school grads were slightly more likely to give the not interested response than those with a BA or more.

As for possible voting impediments, 3.6% in the Census report said they had registration problems,2.4% said their voting places were inconvenient, and2.2% noted transportation problems. These responses augment responses from a 2024 PRRI poll.Fewer than 2% said they faced impediments to voting such as being told they didn't have the correct ID,or,separately,that their name wasn't on the list though they were registered. One percent said they were harassed or bothered. The one problem a lot of voters had was long lines (17%), something local election officials can work to correct.

The dearth of serious voting impediments is long-standing finding in polls. To take just one, a 1983 report by ABC News and Harvard looked closely at likely and unlikely voters. Jeff Alderman of ABC wrote that both groups did "not perceive major logistical obstacles to voting in either the registration or election process. They are generally satisfied with voting procedures. . . "In this poll, a similar number of nonvoters gave the "too busy" and "long lines"response the Census has tracked. Other studies since that time confirm that impediments are not a significant problem for the vast majority of citizens.

So why do we hear so much about voting impediments in election years? First, we should know about real impediments and correct them because voting is important and gives people a say in how government works. It is also always worth examining proposed changes to see if they will make the system work better. But it also appears that both parties use the issue to try to secure political advantage-to appeal to their base voters and widen their appeal.But getting the federal government more involved in a system that needs some improvements but works very well across the country seems to me at least to be a big mistake.

来源：非 常道