摘要：Pakistan is certainlyspinning a good storyabout China’s defense industry. Its army said it used Chinese J-10C planes to shoot down
1.原文
中国国防工业迎来 “深度求索” 时刻
投资者正在重新评估中国的军事能力及崛起为武器出口国的潜力。
Investors are reassessing Beijing’s military capacity and potential to rise as an arms exporter.
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In investing, narratives can matter a lot more than earnings or cash flow analysis.
Pakistan is certainly spinning a good story about China’s defense industry. Its army said it used Chinese J-10C planes to shoot down five Indian jets, including three Rafales, a MIG-29 and an Su-30. Rafales are made by France’s Dassault Aviation SA, while the other two were imported from Russia. India’s government has not confirmed or denied Islamabad’s claim and evidence remains inconclusive.
Nonetheless, investors got excited. It was the first real combat between modern Chinese warplanes and advanced Western jets — and surprisingly, China seems to come out on top. On Monday, Avic Chengdu Aircraft Co., which made the J-10C jets, soared 20.6%, while Dassault tumbled 6.2%.
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1.1 翻译
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在投资领域，叙事的重要性往往远超盈利或现金流分析。
巴基斯坦无疑正在围绕中国国防工业编造一个精彩故事。其军方称，已使用中国J-10C 战机击落五架印度战机，包括三架 “阵风” 战机、一架米格 - 29 和一架苏 - 30。“阵风” 战机由法国达索航空制造，另外两款则从俄罗斯进口。印度政府尚未证实或否认伊斯兰堡的说法，相关证据也尚无定论。
尽管如此，投资者还是兴奋不已。这是中国现代战机与西方先进战机的首次真正交锋 —— 而且出人意料的是，中国似乎胜出了。周一，制造 J-10C 战机的成都飞机工业（集团）有限责任公司股价飙升 20.6%，而达索航空股价则暴跌 6.2%。
1.2 重点详解
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spinning a good story /ˈspɪnɪŋ ə ɡʊd ˈstɔːri/含义：字面意为 “编造一个好故事”，此处指通过叙事或宣传塑造有利形象（有时含夸大或虚构成分）。用法：动名词短语，在句中作宾语，强调通过语言或传播手段构建某种叙事逻辑，常见于金融、政治等领域对舆论操控的描述。Islamabad /ɪzˈlɑːməbæd/含义：伊斯兰堡，巴基斯坦首都，此处代指巴基斯坦政府或军方。用法：专有名词，地名代指国家或政权，英文中常以首都代指国家（如 Washington 代指美国）。inconclusive /ˌɪnkənˈkluːsɪv/含义：无定论的，无法确证的。用法：形容词，描述证据、结果等无法明确支持某一结论，常与 “evidence”“findings” 等词搭配，如 “The study’s results were inconclusive.”come out on top /kʌm aʊt ɒn tɒp/含义：胜出，最终成功。用法：动词短语，强调在竞争或冲突中取得优势地位，无需被动语态，直接用于主语后，如 “She came out on top in the election.”tumbled /ˈtʌmbld/含义：（价格、数量等）暴跌，骤降。用法：动词过去式，侧重描述大幅、突然的下跌，比 “fall” 更强调剧烈程度，常见于金融市场描述，如 “Stock prices tumbled after the news.”2.原文
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Some are hailing it as another DeepSeek moment for China. In late January, a little-known Hangzhou-based startup released an AI reasoning model that performed almost as well as OpenAI at a fraction of the cost, thereby propelling a bull run in Chinese tech names. Are we witnessing a repeat, in defense this time?
I see parallels. While the jury is still out on how disruptive DeepSeek is to US big tech, its arrival has pointed to a new way forward for China, and shows that growth is still possible despite President Donald Trump’s tariffs. More than manufacturing electronics and apparel, Chinese companies can be good at making software, too, the thinking goes. Over time, they might just be able to gain market share in services exports, which the US dominates.
Similarly, Chinese defense companies might one day be able to sell more weapons overseas. Between 2020 and 2024, China accounted for only 5.9% of global arms exports, well behind America’s 43%, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. In addition, there’s little geographical diversity; Almost two-thirds of China’s weapons exports went to Pakistan.
2.1 翻译
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有人将其誉为中国的又一个 “深度求索” 时刻。今年 1 月底，一家名不见经传的杭州初创企业发布了一款人工智能推理模型，其性能与 OpenAI 相近，但成本仅为后者的一小部分，从而推动中国科技股迎来一轮上涨行情。我们是否正在见证类似的一幕，只是这次发生在国防领域？
我看到了相似之处。尽管外界尚未就 “深度求索” 对美国大型科技公司的颠覆性影响达成共识，但其出现为中国指明了一条新的前进道路，并表明，尽管面临唐纳德・特朗普总统的关税政策，中国仍有增长的可能。人们认为，中国企业除了擅长制造电子设备和服装外，也能在软件领域有所建树。随着时间的推移，它们或许能够在服务出口领域（目前由美国主导）获得市场份额。
同样，中国国防企业或许有朝一日能在海外销售更多武器。根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据，2020 年至 2024 年间，中国仅占全球武器出口的 5.9%，远远落后于美国的 43%。此外，中国武器出口的地理多样性不足；近三分之二的出口流向了巴基斯坦。
2.2 重点详解
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hailing it as /ˈheɪlɪŋ ɪt æz/含义：将其誉为，把… 称作。用法：动词短语，“hail” 意为 “赞扬、欢呼”，“as” 后接称号或评价，用于表达对某人 / 事的高度认可，如 “They hailed him as a hero.”bull run /bʊl rʌn/含义：（股市的）牛市，上涨行情。用法：名词短语，特指股市长期上涨的趋势，与 “bear run（熊市）” 相对，常见于金融领域，如 “The tech sector is experiencing a bull run.”the jury is still out /ðə ˈdʒʊəri ɪz stɪl aʊt/含义：尚无定论，意见尚未统一。用法：固定表达，字面原指陪审团未达成裁决，引申为对某事物的评价或结论尚未明确，如 “The jury is still out on the new policy’s effectiveness.”geographical diversity /ˌdʒiːəˈɡræfɪkəl daɪˈvɜːsəti/含义：地理多样性，指在地域分布上的广泛性和分散性。用法：名词短语，“geographical” 意为 “地理的”，“diversity” 指 “多样性”，常用于描述市场、客户或业务分布的地域范围，如 “The company aims to increase geographical diversity in its operations.”accounted for /əˈkaʊntɪd fɔːr/含义：（在数量、比例上）占，构成。用法：动词短语，“account for” 表示 “（数量、比例）占” 或 “解释原因”，此处取前者含义，如 “Women account for 40% of the workforce.”3.原文
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So imagine China selling more warplanes and missiles to the Global South. Already, it’s the biggest supplier in West Africa, accounting for 26% of total arms imports there. This is lucrative business: Dassault Aviation notched 17% net income margin last year.
To be sure, investors will have to wait for months, if not years, to see if developing nations friendly with Beijing will place more military equipment orders. But positioning well ahead of positive earnings is nothing new. German and French defense names are on fire this year, triggered by the White House’s isolationist foreign policies and NATO countries’ vows to ramp up spending. Whether the Europeans can get their act together is another matter. But that has not stopped Dassault from rallying more than 50% for the year despite Monday’s drop. Meanwhile, Germany's Rheinmetall AG and Hensoldt AG more than doubled in market value.
There is also the lack of availability. One reason European military stocks are doing so well is because there are only a handful of publicly listed names that asset managers can get exposure to. After all, for decades Europe relied on the US for national security, so the continent’s defense industry is fragmented and in need of an overhaul. A similar picture emerged in China. Military modernization is new and the country only weaned off imported Russian weapons in the mid-2010s.
For arms exporters, there’s no better advertisement success in a real confrontation. In a way, China’s long-held friendship with Pakistan is already paying off. Islamabad is doing a great job marketing Beijing’s military might.
3.1 翻译
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试想一下，中国向全球南方国家出售更多战机和导弹的情景。实际上，中国已是西非最大的武器供应国，占该地区武器进口总量的 26%。这是一项利润丰厚的业务：达索航空去年的净利润率达到了 17%。
诚然，投资者若想看到与中国友好的发展中国家增加军事装备订单，即便不需要数年，也得等待数月时间。但在盈利前景向好之前提前布局并非新鲜事。受白宫孤立主义外交政策以及北约国家加大国防开支承诺的推动，德国和法国的国防企业今年表现火爆。欧洲国家能否协调一致则是另一回事。但这并未阻止达索航空今年股价累计上涨超 50%—— 尽管周一大幅下跌。与此同时，德国莱茵金属公司和亨索尔特公司的市值增长了一倍多。
此外，还存在供应不足的问题。欧洲军事类股票表现如此出色的一个原因是，可供资产管理公司投资的上市企业寥寥无几。毕竟，几十年来欧洲依赖美国保障国家安全，因此该地区的国防工业分散，需要进行全面改革。中国也曾出现类似的情况。军事现代化是一项新进程，中国直到 21 世纪 10 年代中期才摆脱对俄罗斯进口武器的依赖。
对于武器出口商而言，没有什么比在真实对抗中取得成功更具宣传效果了。从某种程度上说，中国与巴基斯坦的长期友谊已经开始产生回报。伊斯兰堡正在出色地宣传中国的军事力量。
3.2 重点详解
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Global South /ˈɡloʊbəl saʊθ/含义：全球南方，指经济相对欠发达的发展中国家（多位于南半球及北半球南部），与 “Global North（发达国家）” 相对。用法：专有名词短语，用于描述地缘政治和经济格局中的发展中国家群体，如 “The Global South faces challenges in climate change adaptation.”lucrative /ˈluːkrətɪv/含义：利润丰厚的，有利可图的。用法：形容词，强调商业活动或投资的高收益性，常与 “business”“industry” 等词搭配，如 “She runs a lucrative consulting firm.”notched /nɒtʃt/含义：获得，达成（某一数值或成就）。用法：动词过去式，非正式用法，侧重 “成功取得”，常见于金融或业绩描述，如 “The company notched record profits last quarter.”isolationist /ˌaɪsəˈleɪʃənɪst/含义：孤立主义的（主张国家避免卷入国际事务的政策）。用法：形容词，描述外交政策倾向，如 “Isolationist policies often lead to reduced international cooperation.”ramp up /ræmp ʌp/含义：增加，提高，逐步扩大。用法：动词短语，强调逐步或显著地提升规模、数量或强度，如 “The factory is ramping up production to meet demand.”get their act together /ɡet ðeər ækt təˈɡeðər/含义：协调一致，有条理地合作。用法：固定表达，口语化短语，指团队或组织解决内部问题、达成协作，如 “The committee needs to get its act together to pass the bill.”on fire /ɒn ˈfaɪr/含义：表现出色，极为成功（尤指股市或市场中的热度）。用法：俚语短语，形容某类资产或行业热度高涨、涨幅显著，如 “Tech stocks have been on fire this year.”fragmented /ˈfræɡmentɪd/含义：分散的，碎片化的。用法：形容词，描述体系、行业等缺乏整合或统一，如 “The healthcare system in the country is highly fragmented.”overhaul /ˈoʊvərhɔːl/含义：全面改革，彻底检修。用法：名词 / 动词，指对系统、机构等进行根本性的改进，如 “The company plans a major overhaul of its operations.”weaned off /wiːnd ɒf/含义：使摆脱依赖，戒掉。用法：动词短语（wean 的过去分词形式），原指 “断奶”，引申为 “逐步停止依赖某物”，常与 “off” 搭配，如 “She weaned herself off caffeine.”来源：英语杂货铺
