摘要：2025年9月9日美国有线电视新闻网刊登普任曾在乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普和乔·拜登四任美国总统执政时担任国家安全领域高级职务，现任CNN全球事务分析师的布雷特·H·麦格克分析文章，主要内容如下：

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法新社电视台的画面显示：2025年9月9日以军突然空袭居住在卡塔尔首都多哈的哈马斯领导人

2025年9月9日美国有线电视新闻网刊登普任曾在乔治·W·布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、唐纳德·特朗普和乔·拜登四任美国总统执政时担任国家安全领域高级职务，现任CNN全球事务分析师的布雷特·H·麦格克分析文章，主要内容如下：

以色列刚刚对卡塔尔首都发动空袭，目标直指居住在多哈的哈马斯政治领导人。那么，接下来会发生什么？

以色列此次行动并非完全出人意料。自2023年10月7日哈马斯突然袭击以色列、屠杀1000多名以色列人并劫持近250人作为人质后，哈马斯领导人就已经成为以色列打击的目标。以色列普明确表示，无论哈马斯领导人身在加沙地带内部还是境外，都将成为打击目标，并一直在寻找除掉他们的最佳时机。

一、袭击虽不令人意外，但却仍令人震惊。主要原因有三：

一是以色列第一时间公开承认实际了轰炸行动。上一次以色列打击加沙地带以外的哈马斯领导人，即去年在伊朗首都德黑兰击毙哈马斯在加沙的实际领导人哈利勒・伊斯梅尔・易卜拉欣・哈亚哈亚的前任伊斯梅尔·哈尼耶的行动，以色列方直到行动实施五个月后才承认对其死亡负责。

但此次，以色列立即公开全面承认这次行动。他们想让全世界知道：哈马斯领导人不仅会在任何地方成为打击目标，而且以色列会以一种肆无忌惮的方式采取行动：以军在此次被命名为“烈火峰会”的行动中，动用了10架军用飞机，发射了10枚空对地弹药。

二是美国和以色列此前都曾请求卡塔尔接纳这些领导人。以色列此次打击的并非偏远地区某个秘密恐怖分子据点，而是位于一个与美以两国均保持密切合作的国家卡塔尔首都，而且该地点是美国和以色列都知晓的。此类行动堪称史无前例。

我曾在多哈待过数月，通过卡塔尔方面与以色列和哈马斯谈判，以推动释放人质。哈马斯在多哈的据点并非秘密。各方之间存在一种未明确言说的共识：尽管以色列有权暗杀这些领导人，但考虑到卡塔尔在调解谈判中扮演的角色，以色列不会这样做。

三是此次空袭降低了与哈马斯达成释放人质协议的可能性。要让剩余的人质安全返回，唯一的途径是通过谈判达成协议。目前人质被关押在地下深处，这使得军事营救行动难度极大。哈马斯已公开表示，任何营救人质的尝试都将导致人质死亡。若无法达成协议，人质将无法获释。

要达成协议，就必须与哈马斯在多哈的领导层谈判，并通过这些领导层与加沙地带内部的激进派领导人沟通。除此之外，别无他法。

以色列刚刚实施的此次行动，很可能会让这一谈判进程陷入停滞。卡塔尔可能会暂停或降低其中介角色。而且，若此次行动取得成功，加沙地带以外可能将不再有任何拥有足够影响力来促成协议、确保人质获释的哈马斯领导人。

2025年9月6日，以色列人在耶路撒冷举行要求释放人质和结束加沙地带战争的集会

二、这次袭击对仍被哈马斯扣押的人质意味着什么？

哈马斯应对以色列此次袭击的手段有限。其军事能力已被大幅削弱，向以色列境内施加武力的能力也有所下降。不过，哈马斯仍能煽动以色列境内的恐怖袭击。本周早些时候，该组织显然就煽动了一起恶性袭击事件：在耶路撒冷早高峰期间针对在公交车站等候的以色列人发动了袭击。经过以色列近二年来的无情打击，哈马斯可能已经从一支有组织的军事力量变成仅乘少数战斗人员的残部。

然而，人质的命运仍由哈马斯掌控。其中20人在被关押700天后仍然存活。目前存在极大风险：哈马斯可能会通过处决一名或多名人质来报复以色列。其目的是向以色列释放一个信号：拯救人质的唯一途径是停止战争，并接受哈马斯继续在加沙掌权，而这是以色列绝不可能接受的。

为降低人质面临的这一风险，美国可明确表示：若人质受到任何伤害，哈马斯的处境将更加糟糕。白宫可暂停为促成或保障任何形式协议所做的努力。长期以来，哈马斯一直希望特朗普能在某个时候（即使在正式协议达成前）要求以色列停止在加沙的行动。特朗普则可排除了这种可能性，并明确表示：只有当人质未受伤害且最终获释时，美国才会继续支持通过谈判达成解决方案。

以哈和谈的持续僵持势必进一步延长和加剧加沙地区巴勒斯坦人的苦难

三、白宫的初步反应与以哈和谈的前景

在今日早些时候白宫一份措辞严谨的声明中，特朗普的新闻发言人卡罗琳·莱维特表示：“特朗普总统认为，这一不幸事件或可成为推动和平的契机。”与此同时，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡表示，他准备推进美国几天前提出的一项协议。该协议要求哈马斯立即释放所有存活的人质以及遇难者遗体，以换取巴勒斯坦囚犯获释，同时启动旨在通过谈判实现战争永久结束的进程。

但这种结果的可能性微乎其微。更有可能的情况是，冲突将持续下去，即便在最好的情况下，要重新开启任何外交途径也可能需要数周时间。

Doha strikes: Ramifications for hostages and for peace. Analysis by Brett H. McGurk on CNN. September 10, 2025

Brett McGurk is a CNN global affairs analyst who served in senior national security positions under Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

Israel just launched airstrikes in the capital of Qatar, targeting Hamas’s political leadership. So, what happens now?

The Israeli operation is not entirely surprising. Hamas’s leaders have been dead men walking since October 7, 2023, after Hamas invaded Israel, massacred over 1,000 Israelis, and took nearly 250 more as hostages. Israel has made clear since then that it will target every Hamas leader whether inside Gaza or abroad and they have acted on that commitment.

So, this operation could be viewed as a long time coming.

Not surprising, but shocking

But an event that’s not surprising, can still be shocking. That’s how I’d describe what just happened, for three reasons:

First, Israel openly claimed credit.

The last time the Israelis targeted a Hamas leader outside of the Gaza Strip – an operation that killed Al-Hayya’s predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran last year – they said little to nothing about the operation. Sure, the world suspected Israel was responsible but a cardinal rule of clandestine operations is not to talk about them. And in the case of Haniyeh, Israel did not claim credit for his death until five months after the operation was carried out.

Here, the Israelis immediately and publicly took full credit for the operation. They wanted the world to know that Hamas leaders will not only be targeted anywhere, but in the brazen manner with a named operation (“Summit of Fire”) consisting of ten military aircraft firing ten air-to-ground munitions.

Second, both the United States and Israel had asked Qatar to host these leaders.

This was not a strike against a secret terrorist compound in a remote area. It was a strike against a location known to the United States and Israel in the capital of a country that works closely with both. Such an act is unprecedented.

I have spent months in Doha negotiating through the Qataris with Israelis and Hamas for the release of hostages. The location of Hamas was not a secret. There was an unstated understanding that while Israel could assassinate the leaders, they would not do so given Qatar’s role in mediating talks.

Third, the strike makes a hostage deal less likely. The only way to return the remaining hostages safely is through a negotiated deal The hostages are being held deep underground, making military rescue operations difficult. Hamas has stated publicly that any effort to rescue the hostages will result in their deaths. Absent a deal, the hostages will not be freed.

Negotiating a deal requires negotiating with the Hamas leadership in Doha and through those leaders with the militant leaders inside Gaza. There is no other way to do it.

The operation that Israel has just conducted in all likelihood brings that process to a halt. Qatar may suspend or downgrade its mediation role. And if the operation was successful, there may no longer be any Hamas leaders outside of Gaza with the clout needed to close a deal and secure the freedom of the hostages in any case.

What does this mean for the hostages?

Hamas has few tools available to respond to this attack by Israel. Its military capability has been significantly degraded and its ability to exert force into Israel diminished. Hamas can still inspire terrorist attacks inside Israel, as it apparently did earlier this week with a horrific attack in Jerusalem against Israeli civilians waiting at a bus station during the morning commute. But otherwise, Hamas is a rump of what it was before October 7, when the organization existed as an organized military force.

However, Hamas controls the fate of the hostages, twenty of whom are still alive after 700 days in captivity. There is now significant risk that Hamas retaliates against Israel by executing one or more of the hostages. The aim would be a signal to Israel that the only way to save the hostages is to stop the war and accept Hamas remaining in power in Gaza, which Israel will never do.

To reduce this risk to the hostages, the United States can make clear that any harm to them will result in an even worse situation for Hamas. The White House can halt its efforts to secure or guarantee a deal of any kind. Hamas has long hoped that Trump at some point might demand that Israel stop its operations in Gaza even before reaching a deal. Trump can foreclose that possibility and make clear that the United States will continue to support a negotiated settlement only if the hostages are unharmed and ultimately freed.

The end is a long ways off

In a carefully crafted White House statement earlier today, Karoline Leavitt said “President Trump believes this unfortunate incident could serve as an opportunity for peace.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu around the same time said he is prepared to move ahead with the deal the United States presented days ago. That deal demands that Hamas release all living hostages and remains of the dead immediately in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and the start of a process to negotiate a permanent end to the war.

We can all hope that Hamas come to its senses and accepts those terms, but such an outcome is unlikely. The more likely scenario is that this conflict continues and it may take weeks in the best case to restore any diplomatic path at all.

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