摘要：北京时间2025年9月18日凌晨，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会后召开新闻发布会并发表讲话。会议决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点至4.00%–4.25%，并继续推进资产负债表的缩减。鲍
导读
北京时间2025年9月18日凌晨，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会后召开新闻发布会并发表讲话。会议决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点至4.00%–4.25%，并继续推进资产负债表的缩减。鲍威尔在讲话中指出，美国经济增长动能趋缓，劳动力市场有所走弱，通胀水平仍高于长期目标。在通胀风险上行与就业风险加大的背景下，美联储作出政策调整，以维持风险平衡并为未来经济形势变化保留政策空间。
以下为杰罗姆·鲍威尔的演讲全文：
Transcript of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement
September 17, 2025
CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. While the unemployment rate remains low, it has edged up, job gains have slowed, and downside risks to employment have risen. At the same time, inflation has risen recently and remains somewhat elevated.
鲍威尔主席：下午好。我的同事和我始终专注于实现美联储的双重使命，即保障充分就业与稳定价格，以惠及全体美国人民。当前，虽然失业率依然处于低位，但已略有上升，就业增速放缓，而就业面临的下行风险增加。同时，近期通胀回升，仍维持在相对较高水平。
In support of our goals, and in light of the shift in the balance of risks, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
为支持上述目标，并考虑到风险平衡的变化，今天联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决定将政策利率下调0.25个百分点。同时，我们还将继续缩减持有的证券规模。简要回顾经济形势之后，我会进一步说明货币政策立场。
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has moderated. GDP rose at a pace of around one and a half percent in the first half of the year, down from 2.5 percent last year. The moderation in growth largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending. In contrast, business investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from last year’s pace. Activity in the housing sector remains weak. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects GDP to rise 1.6 percent this year and 1.8 percent next year, a touch stronger than projected in June.
近期指标显示，经济活动的增长势头有所放缓。今年上半年，国内生产总值（GDP）增速约为1.5%，低于去年的2.5%。增速下降主要源于消费支出减弱。与之相比，企业在设备和无形资产方面的投资较去年有所回升。房地产市场活动依旧低迷。在最新的经济预测摘要（SEP）中，中位数预测显示GDP今年将增长1.6%，明年为1.8%，略高于6月份的预测。
In the labor market, the unemployment rate edged up to 4.3 percent in August but remains little changed over the past year at a relatively low level. Payroll job gains have slowed significantly to a pace of just 29 thousand per month over the past three months. A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force, due to lower immigration and lower labor force participation. Even so, labor demand has softened and the recent pace of job creation appears to be running below the “breakeven” rate needed to hold the unemployment rate constant. In addition, wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation. Overall, the marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers is unusual. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen. In our SEP, the median projection for the unemployment rate is 4.5 percent at the end of this year and edges down thereafter.
劳动力市场方面，8月份失业率小幅上升至4.3%，但与过去一年相比总体变化不大，仍处低位。过去三个月，就业增长明显放缓，月均新增岗位仅2.9万个。这种放缓很大程度上可能源于劳动力供给增速下降，原因包括移民减少和劳动参与率降低。即便如此，劳动力需求也在减弱，当前的就业创造速度似乎已低于维持失业率稳定所需的“收支平衡水平”。此外，工资增速继续放缓，但仍快于通胀。总体而言，劳动力供给与需求同步显著放缓的情况并不常见。在这样一个活力不足、相对疲软的劳动力市场中，就业风险明显上升。SEP的中位数预测显示，今年年底失业率将达到4.5%，此后逐步回落。
Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat
elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the Consumer Price Index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.7 percent over the 12 months ending in August and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.9 percent. These readings are higher than earlier in the year as inflation for goods has picked up. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up, on balance, over the course of this year on news about tariffs, as reflected in both market and survey-based measures. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 3.0 percent this year and falls to 2.6 percent in 2026 and to 2.1 percent in 2027.
通胀水平已较2022年年中高点明显回落，但相较于我们2%的长期目标，仍处于偏高区间。根据消费者价格指数（CPI）和其他数据估算，截至8月份的过去12个月，个人消费支出（PCE）总指数上涨2.7%；若剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别，核心PCE上涨2.9%。这些读数较年初有所提高，主要因为商品通胀有所回升。相比之下，服务业的通缩趋势似乎仍在延续。受关税相关消息影响，今年以来短期通胀预期整体有所上升，这在市场指标和调查数据中都有体现。然而，从一年或以后的更长期视角看，大多数通胀预期指标仍与我们2%的目标大体一致。SEP的中位数预测显示，PCE总通胀率今年为3.0%，2026年降至2.6%，2027年进一步降至2.1%。
Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today’s meeting, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4 to 4-1/4 percent and to continue reducing the size of our balance sheet.
我们的货币政策行动以促进充分就业和价格稳定这两项双重使命为指引。今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点，至4.00%–4.25%，并继续缩减资产负债表规模。
Changes to government policies continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. Higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen. A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short-lived—a one-time shift in the price level. But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed. Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.
政府政策的变化仍在持续，其对经济的影响尚不确定。较高的关税已经开始推高部分商品价格，但其对整体经济活动和通胀的影响仍需观察。一个合理的基准假设是，这种影响对通胀而言相对短暂，仅会带来一次性的价格水平上升。但也存在另一种可能，即通胀影响更具持久性，这是必须加以评估和管理的风险。我们的责任在于确保一次性的价格水平上升不会演变为持续的通胀问题。
In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. When our goals are in tension like this, our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate. With downside risks to employment having increased, the balance of risks has shifted. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance.
短期内，通胀风险偏向上行，而就业风险则倾向下行。这是一个具有挑战性的局面。当我们的目标处于这种张力中时，我们的政策框架要求在双重使命之间进行权衡。随着就业下行风险的增加，整体风险平衡已经发生转变。因此，我们认为在本次会议上采取进一步措施，朝着更加中性的政策立场迈进是合适的。
With today’s decision, we remain well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments. We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
在今天的决策后，我们依然具备良好的条件，能够及时应对潜在的经济变化。我们将继续根据最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡，来确定货币政策的适当立场。
In our SEP, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path for the federal funds rate, based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario for the economy. The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.6 percent at the end of this year, 3.4 percent at the end of 2026, and 3.1 percent at the end of 2027. This path is 1/4 percentage point lower than projected in June. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and they are not a Committee plan or decision. Policy is not on a preset course.
在我们的经济预测摘要中，FOMC参会者基于各自判断的最可能经济情景，写下了他们认为适当的联邦基金利率路径。中位数预测显示，联邦基金利率在今年年底为3.6%，2026年底为3.4%，2027年底为3.1%。这一利率路径比6月份的预测低0.25个百分点。一如既往，这些个人预测存在不确定性，它们并非委员会的计划或决定。政策并没有现成的轨道。
The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission, and we at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to our discussion.
美联储的货币政策被赋予两项目标——充分就业和稳定价格。我们始终致力于支持充分就业，使通胀水平可持续地回归2%的目标，并保持长期通胀预期的稳固锚定。能否实现这些目标，关系到全体美国民众的利益。我们深知，美联储的每一项决策都会影响全国的社区、家庭和企业。我们的一切行动，都是为了履行公共使命。美联储将尽全力实现充分就业和稳定价格的目标。谢谢大家，接下来欢迎各位展开讨论。
FOMC会议纪要（2025年9月17日）
编译：刘辰阳
监制：李婧怡
版面编辑｜孔姝潼
责任编辑｜李锦璇、阎奕舟
主编｜安然
近期热文
来源：IMI财经观察