宋圭武：世界本质是确定性

摘要：世界本质是确定性，即上帝不会掷骰子？还是不确定性，是上帝在掷骰子？在科学上仍然是未知数。个人认为，在理性控制的背景下，世界本质是确定性。一是概率论本质体现的是确定性。因为概率论虽然在个体或小数据层面，是不确定性，这说明在个体或小数据层面人类无法把握所有影响变量

宋圭武：世界本质是确定性

世界本质是确定性，即上帝不会掷骰子？还是不确定性，是上帝在掷骰子？在科学上仍然是未知数。个人认为，在理性控制的背景下，世界本质是确定性。一是概率论本质体现的是确定性。因为概率论虽然在个体或小数据层面，是不确定性，这说明在个体或小数据层面人类无法把握所有影响变量，比如投一枚硬币出现正反面的情况，在仅投少数几次的情况下是具有很大偶然性的。但在大数据情况下，偶然性变化又呈规律性，比如投硬币在很多次情况下出现正反面的概率会各趋于二分之一。为什么会出现这种情况，因为在大数据情况下，所有未考虑到的影响变量其作用互相抵消，最终消解了人类无法把握的误差。二是混沌效应本质也是体现确定性。所谓混沌效应是指一个微小的变化，可能会引发一个大的变化，而这正说明世界本质是确定性。因为若没有确定性，微小的变化要引发一个大的变化，可能性是很小的。三是不确定性属于单面的主观世界。若把主观世界和客观世界双面有机统一起来看，不确定性必然体现为确定性。四是自由意志属于局部世界和个体世界，但局部世界的自由意志和个体世界的自由意志，并不能破坏宇宙整体的稳定性和确定性。五是局部世界的自由意志和个体世界的自由意志，本质也是基于确定性的自由。因为若自由没有确定性，这样的自由是不可能有真自由的。比如，你可以选择吃米饭或吃面饭，这是选择自由，而一旦选择，必然结果是确定性的。而若你可以自由选择吃米饭或面饭，但你选择后结果又具有不确定性，比如你选择了吃米饭，但结果是你选择了吃面饭，这样你所谓的选择自由其实是无自由。所以，自由若没有确定性，自由本质就是非自由。所以，自由本质也是确定性。六是从宇宙全局看，是体现客观特点的确定性，从宇宙局部看，是体现主观特点的确定性，二者最终都统一于确定性。

Song Guiwu The Nature of the World Is Determinism

The nature of the world is determinism, that is, God does not roll dice? Or uncertainty, is God rolling dice? In science, it is still unknown.Personally, in the context of rational control, the nature of the world is determinism.First, the essence of probability theory is determinism.Although probability theory is uncertain in the individual or small data level, it shows that humans cannot grasp all the influencing variables in the individual or small data level. For example, the occurrence of heads and tails in a coin toss is very chance in only a few times.But in the case of big data, the change of chance is regular, for example, the probability of heads and tails in a coin toss will tend to one half.Why this happens? Because in the case of big data, all the unconsidered influencing variables cancel each other, and finally eliminate the error that humans cannot grasp.Second, the nature of chaos effect is determinism.The so-called chaos effect refers to a small change, which may lead to a large change, and this is to show that the nature of the world is determinism.Because if there is no certainty, the possibility of a small change to lead to a large change is very small.Third, uncertainty belongs to the one-sided subjective world. If the subjective world and the objective world are organically unified, uncertainty will inevitably embody certainty. Fourth, free will belongs to the local world and the individual world, but the free will in the local world and the individual world cannot destroy the stability and certainty of the universe as a whole. Fifth, the free will in the local world and the individual world is also based on certainty in essence. Because if freedom is not determined, such freedom cannot be truly free. For example, you can choose to eat rice or noodle rice, this is the freedom of choice, and once you choose, the inevitable result is determined. If you can freely choose to eat rice or noodle rice, but after you choose the result is uncertain, for example, you choose to eat rice, but the result is that you choose to eat noodle rice, so you so-called freedom of choice is actually no freedom. Therefore, if freedom is not determined, the essence of freedom is not free. Therefore, the essence of freedom is also determined. Sixth, from the overall view of the universe, it is determined to reflect the objective characteristics, from the local view of the universe, it is determined to reflect the subjective characteristics, and the two are ultimately unified in certainty.