摘要：Second time around, US President Donald Trump again finds himself under water, i.e. having more people dislike what he’s doing tha
Reader question:
Please explain “under water” in this headline: Reuters poll finds Trump’s approval rating under water after first month.
My comments:
After Trump’s first month back in office, that is.
Second time around, US President Donald Trump again finds himself under water, i.e. having more people dislike what he’s doing than the other way around, according to a poll conducted by Reuters, a major international news agency.
Under water?
Here, look at it this way, Trump is likened to a swimmer at the risk of drowning himself or a ship that is struggling to stay afloat.
Under water, to have oneself completely submerged in water is not the ideal position a swimmer finds himself in, to say the least. He must get back above surface level in order to breathe – and to survive.
Likewise, a ship that finds itself going under water is, I’m afraid, a sinking ship.
Figuratively speaking, a person who’s in debt is financially under water.
A failing business that is not making enough money to break even is likewise under water.
Here, in our example, “under water” is used to describe the situation Trump finds himself in, insofar as his approval rating is concerned.
In this situation, 50 percent approval rating is considered water level. If exactly 50 percent of people polled support him, he’s on water level. He’s 50-50, or half and half. He’s breaking even.
If more than 50 percent of the population support him, he’s considered above water.
If less than 50 percent of the people support him, as is the case in the Reuters poll, then he’s under water.
Again, under water means more people disapprove of what he’s doing than the other way around.
In other words, he’s no longer a popular President, as he was right after the 2024 election last November.
Well, that’s all for us, and here are more media examples of “under water” pertaining to Donald Trump and his political foes in terms of their popularity or the lacks thereof:
1. Nearly all Americans – 87 percent – think President Joe Biden’s decision to end his reelection bid was the right thing to do, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist poll. That view crossed ideological, generational and partisan lines, a strong note of unity in a din of national division.
Biden’s decision increases Democrats’ chances of winning the election, said a plurality (41 percent) of Americans. Those who felt this moment would prove a turning point included 65 percent of Democrats, 38 percent of independents and 21 percent of Republicans.
At the same time, 24 percent said Biden’s decision to exit decreases Democrats’ odds of winning in November, while 34 percent said his move will make no difference, including 42 percent of Republicans.
“If you look at the policies of the last four years, he hasn’t missed a beat,” Democratic strategist Adam Parkhomenko said. “But he’s not as quick as he used to be. Four years is a long time.”
Roughly three-quarters of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said Vice President Kamala Harris should be nominated for the top of their ticket in November. Fewer than a quarter said Democrats should find someone else to lead the party. This poll was conducted Monday, as endorsements, campaign donations and pledged delegates began to stack up in support of Harris taking Biden’s place.
If the election were held today, 46 percent of voters would back Trump, while 45 percent of U.S. registered voters would support Harris, falling well within the margin of error. Compared to the previous PBS News/NPR/Marist poll, taken this month before Biden left the race, support for both Trump and Harris fell by a few points each, while the percentage of undecided voters grew 8 points.
Whether Harris has the ability to attract voters beyond the Democratic Party – and overcome middling-to-poor public impressions of Biden’s tenure – is another question. Right now she’s under water for general perception, this poll found, though a significant number aren’t sure what they think of her.
In this latest poll, 44 percent of U.S. adults said they viewed Harris unfavorably. At the same time, 40 percent said they regarded her favorably, while 15 percent said they were not sure, including 19 percent of independents.
- Harris and Trump are tied, PBS.org, July 23, 2024.
2. Donald Trump received a rude awakening Friday night from Fox News, when it reported fresh polling in four key states (Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that showed three of them too close to call and the other one slipping away.
It’s not ideal for a presidential campaign to peak roughly 100 days before an election, but these surveys, especially contrasted with other polling better for Trump, show the former president’s case against President Biden doesn’t translate to one against Vice President Kamala Harris as easily as GOP strategists might have hoped.
They also show a race arguably slipping away under Trump’s nose.
Especially given a common thread of these polls seems to be a “vibe” check: In other words, battleground voters like Harris more than they do Trump right now, and it’s unclear how the Republican candidate changes that.
As the Fox polls show, no matter who is ahead or behind, Trump is under water everywhereand Harris isn’t. Great for scuba diving but not great for close elections.
In Michigan, which Biden won by less than 3 points in 2020, the Harris-Trump race is tied at 49% in a head-to-head, though Trump is up 45% to 43% against Harris in a race including Robert Kennedy Jr. (5%), Jill Stein (1%) and Cornel West (1%).
Other positives for Trump, relatively speaking: He gets 17% of the black vote here, far better than the 0% he got in a recent Detroit News-WDIV-TV live-dial Michigan poll that showed a tied race.
Trump also has a plurality of independents here with 36%, more than a double-digit lead over Harris and Kennedy.
Still, Harris has a higher net-favorable rating than Trump, albeit by 1 point.
Wisconsin, decided by less than a percentage point in the last two elections, sees a 1-point Trump lead in the binary battle and a race tied at 46% in the expanded field.
Harris has support here from 92% of Democrats and 51% of women in the larger battle. Trump has 52% of men and 89% of Republicans and is +2 with independents.
- In ‘vibe’ election, battleground poll shifts should scare Donald Trump as 2024 race could be slipping away, NYPost.com, July 28, 2024.
3. President Donald Trump watches the polls.
There’s simply no denying it because the president tends to spend a lot of time talking about them. And that is particularly the case when the polls aren’t looking good for him.
For the first few weeks of his second term, Trump’s approval ratings, while not as good as his predecessors, were the best that he has ever seen. But that changed on Thursday with the worst day of polling of his entire second term.
Trump combatted that by claiming his approval rating was around 70 percent as the week closed.
The picture painted by CNN data guru Harry Enten, though, was not good at all for the president. Enten has delivered several glowing reviews of Trump polling across the first few weeks of his presidency, but on Thursday it was downright ugly.
“The last day and change has been the worst day of polling for Donald Trump during his entire second term in office,” Enten said standing in front of a graphic that showed Trump at -5 points (CNN), -6 points (Gallup), -7 points (Ipsos) and -4 points (Quinnipiac) for approval ratings in four new polls.
Enten pointed out the numbers and said, “Negative, negative, negative, negative. Under water, under water, under water, under water. These four polls, all of them tell a consistent story, and that is Trump is on the negative side of the ledger.
“His net approval is negative. He is under water like the Little Mermaid.”
- Donald Trump makes polling claims one day after he gets very bad news, PenLive.com, February 22, 2025.
本文仅代表作者本人观点，与本网立场无关。欢迎大家讨论学术问题，尊重他人，禁止人身攻击和发布一切违反国家现行法律法规的内容。
About the author:
Zhang Xin is Trainer at chinadaily.com.cn. He has been with China Daily since 1988, when he graduated from Beijing Foreign Studies University. Write him at: zhangxin@chinadaily.com.cn, or raise a question for potential use in a future column.
来源：中国日报网
