《海洋预报》| 径流与潮差对钦江河口盐水入侵距离的影响机制

摘要：构建三维数学模型，定量分析不同径流和潮差组合下钦江河口盐水入侵距离。结果表明：盐水入侵距离随径流的增大而减小，随潮差的增大而增大；潮差较小时，盐水入侵距离与径流之间呈线性关系，随着潮差增大，二者之间的非线性关系逐渐增强，满足幂函数y=axn关系。基于非线性多元

径流与潮差对钦江河口盐水入侵距离的影响机制

作者：郑华1 2刘洁1 23 肖毅1 2

单位：

1. 重庆交通大学国家内河航道工程技术研究中心, 重庆 400074;

2. 重庆交通大学河海学院, 重庆 400074;

3. 中交第四航务工程勘察设计院有限公司, 广东广州 510290

分类号：P731.12

出版年·卷·期（页码）：2025·42·第一期（56-63）

摘要：构建三维数学模型，定量分析不同径流和潮差组合下钦江河口盐水入侵距离。结果表明：盐水入侵距离随径流的增大而减小，随潮差的增大而增大；潮差较小时，盐水入侵距离与径流之间呈线性关系，随着潮差增大，二者之间的非线性关系逐渐增强，满足幂函数y=axn关系。基于非线性多元回归，构建钦江河口盐水入侵距离预测公式。

关键词：钦江河口径流潮差数值模拟盐水入侵距离

Abstract：In this paper, a three-dimensional mathematical model was constructed to quantitatively analyze the saltwater intrusion distance in the Qinjiang River Estuary under different combinations of runoff and tidal range. The results show that the change in saltwater intrusion distance was inversely proportional to the change in river runoff and positively proportional to the change in tidal range. Specifically, under conditions of minimal tidal range, a linear correlation is observed between the saltwater intrusion distance and river discharge. Conversely, as the tidal range intensifies, the relationship becomes increasingly nonlinear, conforming to a powerfunction (y=axn). Furthermore, this investigation has yielded a predictive equation for saltwater intrusion distance, derived from nonlinear multiple regression analysis, which has been substantiated through rigorous validation. This formula is poised to aid in the optimization of local water resource allocation and management strategies.

Key words：Qinjiang River Estuary; runoff and tidal range; numerical simulation; saltwater intrusion distance