摘要：While there has been a clear anti-globalization political trend in recentyears, the trade data pains a different picture. Accordin
While there has been a clear anti-globalization political trend in recentyears, the trade data pains a different picture. According to UN data, trade in goodsand services accounted for a record high share of global GDP in 2024. How can we understand these trends? What factors are driving their development?
ZHU Min
Senior Advisor of CCIEE; Former Vice President of IMF; Former Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China
First, the share of global trade inglobal GDP reached a record high in 2024, which is a very positive phenomenon, indicating that globalization continues to develop. Especially amid current concerns about anti-globalization trends, the continued growth of trade shows that the economy's intrinsic forces, market dynamics, and globalization itself all remain strong. Therefore, this is a very encouraging development, and we fully support the role of trade in driving globalization forward.
Second, we observed significant structural changesin global trade in 2024. The first notable shift was the rapidgrowth of trade within the Global South and between developing and developed nations. Particularly in the context of supply chain restructuring driven by anti-globalizationforces, emerging economies and developing countries are making efforts to promote and facilitate trade.
Another structural change was the increasing concentration of trade within two major blocs - the Global South and the Global North. Emerging economies are trading more frequently with other emerging economies, while developed countries are also more trading among themselves. Taking China as an example, the country's trade with ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa—particularly trade related to the Belt and Road Initiative—recorded rapid growth in 2024. This reflects the rising global competitiveness of Chinese products and underscores the substantial potential for trade development among Global South countries. Looking ahead, there remains significant room for growth in trade among developing and emerging economies, which will likely lead to a new wave of global supply chain restructuring.
来源：博鳌亚洲论坛
