摘要：TALK TO A business owner in any country and, before long, they will voice a familiarcomplaint.
原文标题 :
Free exchange
Why “labour shortages” don’t really exist
Use the term, and you are almost always a bad economist or a special pleader
自由交流
为什么 “劳动力短缺 ”并不存在？
如果你使用这个词，说明你几乎就是一个糟糕的经济学家或一个特别辩论者
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TALK TO A business owner in any country and, before long, they will voice a familiar complaint.
如果与任意国家的企业老板聊上一会儿，他们很快就会发出一个熟悉的吐槽声。
In low-unemployment America, a third of firms say they experience recruitment challenges as candidates lack the right skills.
在低失业率的美国，1/3的企业称他们面临招聘困难，因为求职者缺乏对口的技能。
In high-unemployment Italy, a quarter have the same complaint.
在高失业率的意大利，1/4的企业也有同样的苦恼。
Labour shortages are, apparently, not just a problem in rich countries.
显然，劳动力短缺不只是发达国家才有的问题。
Goldman Sachs, a bank, reports that officials, regulators and private-sector folk in India worry about a lack of skilled labour.
高盛银行报告称，印度的官员、监管机构和私企人士都在为缺乏熟练劳动力而发愁。
From Hong Kong to Guatemala, over two-thirds of employers moan about a talent shortage, according to a survey by ManpowerGroup, a consultancy.
根据咨询公司“万宝盛华”的一项调查，从HK到危地马拉，超过2/3的雇主都在吐槽人才匮乏的问题。
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The story is consistent over time.
这种情况一直都存在。
When jobs are plentiful, people say there is a labour shortage. It is hard for bosses to find staff.
当工作岗位充足时，人们就会说存在劳动力短缺问题。老板们很难招到员工。
But when unemployment is high, people still say there is a shortage.
然而，当失业率居高不下时，人们还是会说存在劳动力短缺问题。
“There are 3m jobs available in America that are not filled because too many of our people don’t have the skills for those jobs,” said Marco Rubio, now America’s secretary of state, in 2013, when the jobless rate was north of 7%.
现任美国国务卿的马尔科·卢比奥在2013年失业率超过7%时曾说：“美国有300万个职位空缺，原因是我们当中太多人不具备从事这些工作的技能。”
The story is also consistent across industries.
这种情况在各个行业也普遍存在。
Some economists say there is a lack of blue-collar workers; others worry about who will pick vegetables. Still others focus on care workers.
一些经济学家说，蓝领工人短缺；另一些人担心摘菜工短缺。还有人关注护理人员短缺问题。
Alex Tabarrok of George Mason University has written about “the extreme shortage of high-IQ workers”.
乔治梅森大学的亚历克斯·塔巴洛克曾撰写过关于《高智商人才极度短缺》 的文章。
In sum, people always say there is a labour shortage. This tells you something: the term is slippery, perhaps even incoherent.
总而言之，人们总是在说劳动力短缺。这说明了一个问题：“劳动力短缺” 这个说法很模糊，甚至自相矛盾。
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It makes most sense when related to the macroeconomic cycle.
当与宏观经济周期联系起来时，劳动力短缺这一概念最说得通。
Demand for labour can run above supply, such as after the covid-19 pandemic, when high spending boosted demand for labour.
劳动力供不应求的情况时有发生，例如在新冠疫情之后，高消费刺激了对劳动力的需求。
In such circumstances, wages rise as firms compete for staff.Across the G10, averagenominal pay is 20% higher than in 2019.
在这种情况下，由于企业争相招聘员工，工资也随之上涨。在G10国家中，平均名义工资比2019年高出20%。
For a while, higher nominal pay can eliminate labour shortages by encouraging work and discouraging hiring.
在一段时间内，较高的名义工资可以通过激励人们就业和抑制企业招聘行为，来消除劳动力短缺的状况。
But because economywide labour shortages are ultimately inflationary, higher wages do not bring demand and supply into line.
但由于整个经济层面的劳动力短缺最终会引发通货膨胀，所以工资上涨并不能使劳动力的供需达到平衡。
Central banks must instead raise interest rates to reduce demand for labour.
相反，各国中央银行必须提高利率来降低对劳动力的需求。
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The micro level presents a different story. Here, a labour shortage is a question of price and distribution, rather than scarcity.
从微观角度来看，情况就不一样了。在微观层面，劳动力短缺是一个价格和匹配的问题，而不是劳动力资源稀缺的问题。
If a company complains about a shortage of vegetable-pickers, what it really means is that it cannot hire them at the wage it would like to pay.
如果一家公司抱怨蔬菜采摘工短缺，真正的意思是它无法以自己期望支付的工资雇到这些人。
The term “labour shortage” thus implies a normative claim—that there “should” be more workers at the prevailing wage—rather than describing an economic reality.
因此，“劳动力短缺” 这个术语隐含着一种规范性的论断，——按照当前的工资水准“理应”有更多的工人——而不是在描述真实的经济状况。
（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇441/956左右）
原文出自：2025年3月15日《TE》Finance & economics版块
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本文翻译整理: Irene
本文编辑校对: Irene
仅供个人英语学习交流使用。
【重点句子】（3个）
In sum, people always say there is a labour shortage. This tells you something: the term is slippery, perhaps even incoherent.
总而言之，人们总是在说劳动力短缺。这说明了一个问题：“劳动力短缺” 这个说法很模糊，甚至自相矛盾。
It makes most sense when related to the macroeconomic cycle.
当与宏观经济周期联系起来时，劳动力短缺这一概念最说得通。
The micro level presents a different story. Here, a labour shortage is a question of price and distribution, rather than scarcity.
从微观角度来看，情况就不一样了。在微观层面，劳动力短缺是一个价格和匹配的问题，而不是劳动力资源稀缺的问题。
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