摘要：“美国大面积加征关税非常不合理，这对美国经济会造成很大创伤。从全球来看，没有任何一个国家可以完全独立于其他国家，相信美国最终会意识到这一点并做出调整。”4月21日，印度钢铁应用商协会会长Nikunj Turakhia（尼库尼·图拉克西亚）在接受《中国冶金报》记
中国冶金报社
记者 樊三彩 报道
图为尼库尼·图拉克西亚接受《中国冶金报》记者独家专访 （舒礼焕/摄)
“美国大面积加征关税非常不合理，这对美国经济会造成很大创伤。从全球来看，没有任何一个国家可以完全独立于其他国家，相信美国最终会意识到这一点并做出调整。”4月21日，印度钢铁应用商协会会长Nikunj Turakhia（尼库尼·图拉克西亚）在接受《中国冶金报》记者独家专访时强调，“目前只需静观其变，时间会证明很多东西。”
“希望中国钢企深度融入印度的发展”
世界钢协统计数据显示，2024年，中国粗钢产量10.05亿吨，同比下降1.7%；印度粗钢产量1.49亿吨，同比增长6.3%，分列全球产钢国第一、二位。
尼库尼·图拉克西亚认为，世界第一、第二两大国之间开展合作很有必要，也顺理成章。“当前，印度钢铁工业发展水平与中国钢铁存在较大差距，需要在产品技术、成本节约、生产效率等多方面向中国学习，也希望中国钢铁企业能深度融入到印度的发展中来。”他说。
据介绍，2024-2025财年（2024年4月1日到2025年3月31日），印度GDP总量达到3.89万亿美元，同比增长6.7%，相较于2013-2014财年的1.86万亿美元，已实现翻番。目前，印度政府提出5万亿美元GDP发展目标，并通过制定数字印度计划、“印度制造”计划等系列举措，正加速实现这一目标。特别是在铁路基础设施建设投资方面，印度2024-2025财年已经达到320亿美元，相较于2014年（36.1亿美元）增长近8倍。印度经济未来有很好的增长预期。
“希望中国钢铁企业积极参与印度的发展，多开展一些除钢铁贸易以外的合作。”他特别强调并建议，“可以在印度建设海外仓、建工厂、投资高端制造业等，进行更多元的深度合作，也可以将一部分产能转移至印度，这也是规避关税风险的好办法。”他说道。
在他看来，中国钢铁企业当前更多是“站在门外”进行风险和可行性评估。而日韩与印度签署有自由贸易协定，享受着免税准入，因此在印度开展了更多投资。
“欧盟碳关税未来必定会延期”
“虽然印度也进行了一些尝试，但生产绿钢没有那么容易，并且征收碳关税将把每个国家的生产成本进一步增加50美元/吨~100美元/吨，没有任何一个国家真正准备好如何应对。”尼库尼·图拉克西亚表示。
国际货币基金组织（IMF）4月22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将全球经济增长预期从3.3%大幅下调至2.8%，主因是美国单边加征关税引发贸易政策不确定性加剧。尼库尼·图拉克西亚强调，当前，全球经济形势复杂严峻，钢铁行业也面临需求下滑的困境，这一现状并不会很快改善，通过碳关税为行业发展增加难度的做法并不可取。“欧盟碳关税未来必定会延期，因此不必对此有太多担心。”他笃定道。
印度政府在2017年5月份发布的扩大钢铁产能的远景规划《国家钢铁政策(2017)》显示，到2030-2031财年，印度计划将粗钢产能扩大至3亿吨。近日，印度钢铁部秘书桑迪普·庞德里克（Sandeep Poundrik）表示，印度有信心达成3亿吨产能目标，因为预计消费量将快速增长。公开数据显示，印度2021-2023年的钢铁产量增速稳居世界前列。面对快速增长的钢铁产量与低碳转型的压力，印度钢铁产业将如何平衡？
尼库尼·图拉克西亚直言：“我们不会刻意去做平衡，依然会优先保证生产，满足经济发展需求。”在他看来，欧洲国家在发展时期也进行了大量碳排放，但现在要求其他发展中国家缩减碳排放，这是极为不公平的。同时，在经济繁荣的时候，“碳”话题被更多地提及，而这两年经济并不好，国际上谈论的强度正在减弱，这是一个动态的过程。
“3亿吨产能计划并不是根本目的，主要视印度经济发展状况和国内需求情况而定。”他补充道。
—— 英文版 ——
Nikunj Turakhia, President of the steel Users Federation Of India：
The US' imposition of tariffs will "hurt itself", and we just need to wait and see.
"Large-scale tariff hikes by the United States are highly unreasonable and will cause significant damage to its own economy. From a global perspective, no country can be completely independent of others. I believe the United States will eventually realize this and make adjustments." On April 21, Nikunj Turakhia, president of the Indian Steel Application Association, emphasized in an exclusive interview with China Metallurgical News, "At present, we just need to wait and see. Time will prove many things."
"Hope Chinese steel enterprises deeply integrate into India's development"
According to the World Steel Association's statistics, in 2024, China's crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7%; India's crude steel output was 149 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, ranking first and second globally respectively.
Nikunj Turakhia believes that cooperation between the world's top two steel producers is necessary and logical. "Currently, there is a significant gap between India's steel industry development level and that of China. India needs to learn from China in many aspects such as product technology, cost savings, and production efficiency. We also hope that Chinese steel enterprises can deeply integrate into India's development," he said.
It is reported that in the fiscal year 2024-2025 (April 1, 2024 to March 31, 2025), India's GDP reached 3.89 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Compared with 1.86 trillion US dollars in the fiscal year 2013-2014, it has doubled. Currently, the Indian government has set a GDP target of 5 trillion US dollars and is accelerating the realization of this goal through a series of measures such as the Digital India initiative and the "Make in India" program. Especially in terms of railway infrastructure investment, it has reached 32 billion US dollars in the fiscal year 2024-2025, an increase of nearly eight times compared to 3.61 billion US dollars in 2014. India's economy has a good growth outlook in the future.
"Hope Chinese steel enterprises participate in India's development and carry out more cooperation beyond steel trade," he emphasized. "It is suggested that they can build overseas warehouses, set up factories, invest in high-end manufacturing, etc., to carry out more diversified and in-depth cooperation. They can also transfer part of their production capacity to India, which is also a good way to avoid tariff risks," he said.
In his view, Chinese steel enterprises are currently more "standing outside" to assess risks and feasibility. While Japan and South Korea have signed free trade agreements with India and enjoy duty-free access, they have carried out more investments in India.
"The EU carbon tariff will definitely be extended in the future"
"Although India has made some attempts, it is not that easy to produce green steel. Moreover, the imposition of carbon tariffs will increase production costs by about 50 to 100 US dollars per ton for every country. No country is truly prepared for how to deal with this." he added.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the latest World Economic Outlook report on April 22, significantly lowering the global economic growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, mainly due to the uncertainty in trade policies caused by the unilateral tariffs imposed by the United States. Nikunj Turakhia emphasized that the current global economic situation is complex and severe, and the steel industry is also facing the predicament of declining demand. This situation will not improve quickly, and it is not advisable to increase the difficulty for the industry's development through carbon tariffs. "The EU carbon tariff will definitely be extended in the future, so there is no need to worry too much about it," he said confidently.
The Indian government's long-term plan for expanding steel production, the National Steel Policy (2017), released in May 2017, aims to increase crude steel production capacity to 300 million tons by the fiscal year 2030-2031. Recently, Sandeep Poundrik, the secretary of the Indian Ministry of Steel, stated that India is confident of achieving the 300 million tons capacity target because it is expected that consumption will grow rapidly. Public data shows that India's steel production growth rate has been among the world's top in 2021-2023. Facing the rapid growth of steel production and the pressure of low-carbon transformation, how will the Indian steel industry balance these factors?
Nikunj Turakhia said straightforwardly, "We will not deliberately try to balance. We will still prioritize production to meet the demands of economic development." In his view, European countries also emitted a large amount of carbon during their development periods, but now asking other developing countries to reduce carbon emissions is extremely unfair. At the same time, the "carbon" topic is more frequently discussed during economic prosperity, but in the past two years when the economy has not been good, the intensity of international discussions has weakened. This is a dynamic process.
"The 300 million tons capacity plan is not the ultimate goal. It mainly depends on India's economic development situation and domestic demand," he added.
来源：中国冶金报社