摘要：THE spectacle of India and Pakistanteetering on the threshold ofwar and thenbacking offis both alarming and familiar. This time th
(外刊精读)《经济学人》——被西方抛弃的巴基斯坦正遭受着接连不断的经济危机，衰败已无法阻挡！
1.原文
对于印度和巴基斯坦来说，运气是局势缓和与灾难之间的关键因素。
迟早，这份运气会消耗殆尽。
Luck stands between de-escalation and disaster for India and Pakistan
Sooner or later, the luck will run out
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）更简约、阅读体验更好！
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THE spectacle of India and Pakistanteetering on the threshold of war and then backing off is both alarming and familiar. This time the odds remain in favour of de-escalation, as before. Yet the past two weeks show that relations between the two nuclear powers, which have flared into open conflict four times since partition in 1947, are increasingly unstable and dangerous. It is more important than ever that the two sides address their differences, including Pakistan’s recklessindulgence of militant groups, which threatens itself and India.
On May 7th Indian missiles struck Pakistan and the Pakistani-ruled part of Kashmir, a territory both sides claim. These were in retaliation for a terrorist attack on April 22nd that killed 26 civilians in the part of Kashmir that India controls. It says it has intercepts that show militants from Pakistan were to blame. Pakistan, meanwhile, denies this and says that it has shot down several Indian warplanes. It is threatening further counter-strikes. Artillery duels along the de facto border in Kashmir are growing in intensity and killing civilians. The outside world, following a well-worn script, has urged both sides to step back.
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1.1 翻译
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印度和巴基斯坦在战争的边缘摇摇欲坠，随后又退缩，这种景象既令人担忧又让人觉得似曾相识。和以往一样，这次的形势仍然有利于局势的缓和。然而，过去两周的情况表明，自 1947 年分治以来，这两个核大国之间的关系已经爆发过四次公开冲突，并且正变得越来越不稳定和危险。双方解决他们之间的分歧比以往任何时候都更加重要，包括巴基斯坦不计后果地纵容武装组织，这对它自身和印度都构成了威胁。
5 月 7 日，印度导弹袭击了巴基斯坦以及巴基斯坦控制的克什米尔地区，这是一个双方都宣称拥有主权的领土。这些袭击是对 4 月 22 日发生在印度控制的克什米尔地区、造成 26 名平民死亡的恐怖袭击的报复。印度称其截获的情报显示来自巴基斯坦的武装分子是罪魁祸首。与此同时，巴基斯坦否认了这一点，并表示已经击落了几架印度战机。巴基斯坦威胁要进行进一步的反击。克什米尔实际边界沿线的炮击交锋正愈演愈烈，还导致了平民的死亡。外界按照老一套的说辞，敦促双方后退一步。
1.2 重点详解
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teetering on the threshold of：“teetering” 发音为 [ˈtiːtərɪŋ]，动词原形 “teeter” 表示 “摇摇欲坠；蹒跚而行”，“on the threshold of” 意思是 “在…… 的边缘”，所以 “teetering on the threshold of” 表示 “在…… 边缘摇摇欲坠，濒临”。backing off：词组，“back off” 有 “后退；退缩；放弃” 的意思，“backing off” 是其现在分词形式，这里表示退缩的动作或状态。de-escalation：[ˌdiːˌeskəˈleɪʃn]，名词，由 “de-（表示相反、向下等）” 和 “escalation（升级；加剧）” 组成，意思是 “（紧张局势等的）缓和；逐步降低” 。flared into：“flare” 发音为 [fleə(r)]，作动词时意为 “突然爆发；突然发怒；闪耀”，“flared into” 表示 “突然发展成；爆发成”，常指冲突、危机等突然加剧或爆发。reckless：[ˈrekləs]，形容词，意为 “鲁莽的；不计后果的；不顾危险的”，常用来形容人的行为或态度。indulgence：[ɪnˈdʌldʒəns]，名词，动词形式是 “indulge”，“indulgence” 常见意思有 “纵容；迁就；嗜好；沉溺”，这里指巴基斯坦对武装组织的纵容行为。in retaliation for：词组，“retaliation” 发音为 [rɪˌtæliˈeɪʃn]，“in retaliation for” 意思是 “作为对…… 的报复”，用于说明某个行为是对之前某件事的回应。intercepts：[ˈɪntə(r)ˌsepts]，动词 “intercept” 的复数形式，“intercept” 作动词意为 “拦截；截住；截获（信息等）”，这里 “intercepts” 作名词，表示截获的情报等。well-worn：[ˌwel ˈwɔː(r) n]，形容词，原义是 “用旧的；穿旧的”，这里引申为 “陈腐的；老一套的”，常用来形容观点、说法、套路等因经常使用而显得缺乏新意。script：[skrɪpt]，名词，常见意思有 “剧本；脚本；笔迹；手迹”，这里指外界敦促双方的那种老套的说法，可理解为 “套路；模式” 。2.原文
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Something like this pattern has occurred several times since 2000. Yet look closer and this conflict is changing. Pakistan’s decay has been unstoppable. The country endures a rolling economic crisis; its democracy is rigged by its army, led since late 2022 by General Asim Munir, a pioushardliner. Remarkably, the state enables or tolerates militant groups within its borders, including Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), which has a history of atrocities against Indians. Other terrorists, including those operating from Afghanistan, killed 1,612 Pakistanis last year in 444 attacks, the worst toll for a decade. As Pakistan sinks, India is rising: its GDP is now ten times larger than its troubled neighbour’s, having been five times larger back in 2000.
New weapons technology is changing the conflict, too. India has increased arms spending since the last mini-war in 2019. It has acquired warplanes from France and boosted its drone capabilities. Pakistan, for its part, has bought new fighters and missiles from China, from which it now imports 81% of its arms, up from 38% just 15 years ago. Following the wind-down of the war on terror and the fall of Kabul to the Taliban in 2021, America and Europe pay less attention to Pakistan. Once Western presidents and prime ministers had to indulge, humour, bribe and threaten Pakistan in order to ensure its half-co-operation. Now they more often ignore it.
The combination of an unstable Pakistan, an arms race and outside indifference is dangerous. Fortunately, the military exchanges have so far been measured. True, India’s missiles stuck deeper into Pakistan than ever and hit more sites. But they appear to have targeted militant camps. Its aircraft remained in Indian airspace. During skirmishes in 2019 the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi foolishly stoked jingoism at home. This time government rhetoric and the public mood have been more restrained. Pakistan, meanwhile, may have salved its wounded pride by shooting down Indian warplanes, possibly using Chinese air-to-air missiles. It has conducted artillery fire but so far only in Kashmir. It reserves the right to take further action. Still, there is an off-ramp from Armageddon.
2.1 翻译
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自 2000 年以来，类似这样的模式已经出现过好几次了。然而，仔细观察就会发现，这场冲突正在发生变化。巴基斯坦的衰败已无法阻挡。这个国家正遭受着接连不断的经济危机；自 2022 年末以来，由虔诚的强硬派人物阿西姆・穆尼尔将军领导的军队操纵着巴基斯坦的民主。值得注意的是，巴基斯坦政府纵容或容忍境内的武装组织，其中包括虔诚军（LeT），该组织有针对印度人的暴行历史。包括那些从阿富汗发起行动的其他恐怖分子，去年发动了 444 次袭击，造成 1612 名巴基斯坦人死亡，这是十年来最惨重的伤亡。在巴基斯坦衰落的同时，印度却在崛起：如今印度的国内生产总值（GDP）是陷入困境的巴基斯坦的十倍，而在 2000 年时仅为巴基斯坦的五倍。
新的武器技术也在改变着这场冲突。自 2019 年上一次小规模战争以来，印度增加了军备开支。它从法国购买了战机，并增强了其无人机作战能力。就巴基斯坦而言，它从中国购买了新的战斗机和导弹，目前巴基斯坦 81% 的武器都从中国进口，而 15 年前这一比例仅为 38%。随着反恐战争的缓和以及 2021 年喀布尔落入塔利班之手，美国和欧洲对巴基斯坦的关注度降低了。曾经，西方的总统和总理们不得不迁就、哄骗、贿赂并威胁巴基斯坦，以确保它能给予一定程度的合作。如今，他们更多时候选择忽视巴基斯坦。
不稳定的巴基斯坦、军备竞赛以及外部的冷漠态度，这些因素结合起来是很危险的。幸运的是，到目前为止双方的军事交锋还是有所克制的。诚然，印度的导弹这次比以往更深入地打击了巴基斯坦，并袭击了更多目标。但它们似乎瞄准的是武装分子营地。印度的飞机也停留在本国领空内。在 2019 年的小规模冲突中，纳伦德拉・莫迪总理领导的政府愚蠢地在国内煽动沙文主义情绪。而这一次，政府的言辞和民众的情绪都更加克制。与此同时，巴基斯坦可能通过击落印度战机来挽回其受伤的颜面，很可能使用的是中国的空对空导弹。巴基斯坦进行了炮击，但目前也仅限于克什米尔地区。它保留采取进一步行动的权利。不过，现在仍有避免世界末日（大规模冲突）的出路。
2.2 重点详解
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decay：[dɪˈkeɪ]，名词，意为 “衰败；衰退；腐烂；腐朽”，这里指巴基斯坦在经济、民主等方面的衰退。rolling：[ˈrəʊlɪŋ]，形容词，原意为 “旋转的；翻滚的”，“a rolling economic crisis” 表示接连不断的经济危机，“rolling” 在这里表示连续的、不断出现的。rigged：[rɪɡd]，动词 “rig” 的过去分词形式作形容词，“rig” 有 “操纵；控制；作弊” 等意思，“its democracy is rigged” 表示民主被操纵。pious：[ˈpaɪəs]，形容词，意为 “虔诚的；虔敬的；伪善的；道貌岸然的”，这里指将军是虔诚的。hardliner：[ˈhɑː(r) dˌlaɪnə(r)]，名词，意为 “强硬派；强硬分子”，指立场强硬的人。atrocities：[əˈtrɒsəti]，名词 “atrocity” 的复数形式，意为 “暴行；凶恶；残暴的行为”，“a history of atrocities” 表示暴行历史。wind-down：[ˈwɪnd daʊn]，名词，意为 “逐步减少；逐渐停止”，“the wind-down of the war on terror” 表示反恐战争的缓和。measured：[ˈmeʒəd]，形容词，意为 “慎重的；有节制的；量过的”，“the military exchanges have so far been measured” 表示军事交锋是有所克制的。jingoism：[ˈdʒɪŋɡəʊɪzəm]，名词，意为 “沙文主义；极端爱国主义”，指那种盲目爱国、好战的情绪。restrained：[rɪˈstreɪnd]，形容词，意为 “克制的；有节制的；受限制的”，形容政府言辞和民众情绪是克制的。salved：[sælv]，动词 “salve” 的过去式和过去分词，“salve” 有 “缓解；减轻；慰藉” 等意思，“salved its wounded pride” 表示挽回受伤的颜面。off-ramp：[ˈɔːf ræmp]，名词，原指（高速公路等的）驶出坡道，这里引申为 “出路；摆脱困境的途径”，“an off-ramp from Armageddon” 表示避免大规模冲突的出路。3.原文
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Unfortunately, unless the conflict’s underlying causes are tackled, it will surely flare up again. India needs to end its self-defeating repression of the part of Kashmir it controls. This has a Muslim majority and has been subject to more centralised administration since 2019, resulting in militarisation, clampdowns on free speech and abuses of human rights. But the bigger problem is Pakistan’s tolerance of militants which it has long viewed as a source of asymmetric leverage. Although Pakistan’s involvement in the atrocity of April 22nd is not proven, a group linked to LeT initially claimed responsibility. It then issued a denial, saying that its social media had been hacked. Pakistan’s timeworn strategy is to sponsor destabilising attacks and then call for stability.
America has some bargaining power, and the Trump administration should urge Pakistan’s government to shut down terror camps and prosecute militant leaders. International organisations that still have influence over Pakistan, including the IMF and the global anti-terrorist-financing watchdog, should demand it does more.
In the new multipolar world other countries should pull their weight, too. China has become Pakistan’s most powerful patron but its citizens have been victims of terrorism there. The Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, should put pressure on Pakistan. They have long been friendly with it, but their economic interests are now aligned with giant India. With luck the latest outbreak of violence will fit the familiar pattern. But sooner or later luck will run out.
3.1 翻译
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不幸的是，除非冲突的根本原因得到解决，否则冲突肯定会再次爆发。印度需要结束对其控制的克什米尔地区的那种适得其反的镇压。该地区以穆斯林为主，自 2019 年以来一直受到更加集中化的管理，导致了军事化管控、对言论自由的打压以及侵犯人权的行为。但更大的问题是巴基斯坦对武装分子的容忍，长期以来巴基斯坦一直将这些武装分子视为一种不对称的杠杆手段。尽管没有证据表明巴基斯坦参与了 4 月 22 日的暴行，但一个与虔诚军有关联的组织最初声称对此负责。随后该组织又否认了这一点，称其社交媒体账号被黑客攻击了。巴基斯坦老套的策略是资助那些破坏稳定的袭击行动，然后又呼吁实现稳定。
美国有一定的谈判筹码，特朗普政府应该敦促巴基斯坦政府关闭恐怖分子营地，并起诉武装组织头目。那些对巴基斯坦仍有影响力的国际组织，包括国际货币基金组织和全球反恐融资监督机构，应该要求巴基斯坦采取更多行动。
在新的多极化世界中，其他国家也应该尽自己的一份力量。中国已成为巴基斯坦最强大的支持者，但中国公民也曾在巴基斯坦成为恐怖主义的受害者。包括沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国和卡塔尔在内的海湾国家，应该向巴基斯坦施压。这些国家长期以来一直与巴基斯坦友好，但它们的经济利益现在与庞大的印度是一致的。幸运的话，最近这次暴力冲突将符合人们熟悉的模式（即不会进一步恶化）。但运气迟早会用光的。
3.2 重点详解
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self-defeating：[ˌself dɪˈfiːtɪŋ]，形容词，意为 “弄巧成拙的；适得其反的”，“self-defeating repression” 表示这种镇压行为最终对自身不利。centralised：[ˈsentrəlaɪzd]，形容词，也可写作 “centralized”，意为 “集中的；中央集权的”，“centralised administration” 表示集中化管理。clampdowns：[ˈklæmpdaʊnz]，名词 “clampdown” 的复数形式，“clampdown” 意为 “（对…… 的）压制；打击；限制”，“clampdowns on free speech” 表示对言论自由的打压。asymmetric：[ˌeɪsɪˈmetrɪk]，形容词，意为 “不对称的；非对称的”，“asymmetric leverage” 表示不对称的杠杆作用。timeworn：[ˈtaɪmwɔː(r) n]，形容词，意为 “陈旧的；老掉牙的；长期使用而磨损的”，“timeworn strategy” 表示老套的策略。bargaining power：词组，意为 “谈判筹码；议价能力”，指在谈判等情境下所拥有的能够影响对方的能力或资源。prosecute：[ˈprɒsɪkjuːt]，动词，意为 “起诉；控告；检举；追究”，“prosecute militant leaders” 表示起诉武装组织头目。patron：[ˈpeɪtrən]，名词，意为 “赞助人；资助者；主顾；庇护者”，“China has become Pakistan’s most powerful patron” 表示中国是巴基斯坦强大的支持者。aligned：[əˈlaɪnd]，形容词，动词原形 “align” 有 “使结盟；使一致；使排成一行” 等意思，“their economic interests are now aligned with giant India” 表示他们的经济利益与印度一致。来源：英语杂货铺
