摘要：朱莉·雷是内容高级顾问、世界新闻执行主编，在内布拉斯加州奥马哈市。从事写作和编辑工作已逾 30 年，其中 20 多年为盖洛普工作。她为国际客户、领导者和媒体分析并撰写盖洛普的全球研究，重点关注移民问题。除了编辑和管理盖洛普网站（Gallup.com）上发布的全
8 Global Trends to Follow in 2025（2025 年值得关注的 8 大全球趋势）
Top stories from 2024 that will make headlines next year（2024 年的热门话题将在明年继续成为头条新闻）
朱莉·雷（JULIE RAY）
朱莉·雷是内容高级顾问、世界新闻执行主编，在内布拉斯加州奥马哈市。从事写作和编辑工作已逾 30 年，其中 20 多年为盖洛普工作。她为国际客户、领导者和媒体分析并撰写盖洛普的全球研究，重点关注移民问题。除了编辑和管理盖洛普网站（Gallup.com）上发布的全球研究文章外，雷还为盖洛普网站撰写了 400 多篇文章，并与他人合著的文章也发表在国际政策杂志和期刊上。
华盛顿特区——如果你觉得 2024 年很艰难，那 2025 年就更得做好准备了。
“拒绝现状”的选举年已落下帷幕。包括 10 个人口最多的国家在内的 60 多个国家的选民参与了投票。选举结果往往对执政党不利；即便没有像美国和英国那样彻底落败，执政党也大多未能获得预期的支持率。如今，获胜者面临的挑战将是施政。
2024 年全年战火纷飞，但远未结束。尽管阿萨德政权在 12 月的倒台使叙利亚旷日持久的内战戛然而止，但目前仍在进行的冲突比二战以来的任何时候都要多。以色列与真主党之间的停火协议目前仍在维持，以色列和哈马斯之间或许也在逐步走向停火，但乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的和平前景却十分黯淡。
在这一过程中，盖洛普公司持续向世界各地的人们提出有关其生活的关键问题，以收集有关人类感受的全球统计数据。
盖洛普即将开启其全球调查的第 20 个年头，在回顾 2024 年的重大全球发现的同时，我们也展望 2025 年的前景。
世界上最幸福的国家是……不是美国。在《世界幸福报告》发布 12 年的历史中，美国首次未能跻身全球最幸福国家的前 20 名。美国排在第 23 位，较前一年的第 15 位有所下降。
2025 年的下一个看点：3 月 20 日，盖洛普及其在牛津大学幸福研究中心、联合国可持续发展解决方案网络和《世界幸福报告》编辑委员会的研究伙伴发布下一份报告时，看看美国目前的排名。2025 年报告的主题将是“关爱与分享”。
全球安全状况开始下滑：盖洛普最新的年度全球安全状况更新显示，如今全球民众的安全感比十年前有所提升，但有迹象表明这一进展面临威胁。提高民众对当地警察的信任度以及对所在社区的满意度，或许是扭转这一趋势的关键。
2025 年展望：尽管像萨尔瓦多这样的国家在 2024 年首次登上“最安全”榜单，但拉丁美洲仍是全球“最不安全”的地区。让我们通过盖洛普的下一份全球安全报告来了解这一情况是否依旧，以及世界其他地区民众的安全感如何。
谁信任选举？保加利亚人不信任。在 2024 年投票前，仅有 10% 的保加利亚人信任本国选举的公正性——这一比例为全球最低。在巴基斯坦和南非，选民对选举缺乏信任也是普遍现象，尽管墨西哥民众对选举的信心有所提升，但仅有 44% 的墨西哥人对其选举表示信任。而在全球最大的选举——印度大选前夕，七成成年人表示有信心，使其跻身全球信任度最高的 20 个国家之列。
2025 年接下来的情况：盖洛普将继续追踪人们对本国选举的信心，并衡量他们对可能影响其领导人选择的问题的态度。2025 年，德国和加拿大将成为焦点，因为两国选民将前往投票站投票。
移民意愿仍处于历史高位：盖洛普最新的全球移民数据显示，人们离开本国的意愿仍高于十年前。这在世界各地几乎都如此，从撒哈拉以南非洲和拉丁美洲等传统移民输出地区到美国和加拿大等移民接收地区都是如此。
2025 年的下一个数据：略低于五分之一的潜在移民（18%），即全球约 1.7 亿成年人，将美国列为他们未来理想的居住地。然而，这一数字仍低于 2017 年之前的任何一年。当盖洛普在 2025 年更新这些数据时，看看美国是否仍是最具吸引力的目的地。
中美对比：目前，在世界大部分地区，美国在领导力认可度方面领先于中国。但盖洛普的一项分析表明，这种认可度在很大程度上取决于谁在执政。
2025 年展望：根据盖洛普 2023 年对 133 个国家的相对净支持率调查，美国在其中 81 个国家中占据优势，而中国在 52 个国家中领先。看看美国在 2024 年是否还能保持其领导地位的支持率优势。
乌克兰人希望尽快结束战争：2024 年末，乌克兰人对战争的态度发生了变化。首次有微弱多数的乌克兰成年人（52%）表示希望本国尽快通过谈判结束战争。近四成乌克兰人（38%）认为本国应继续战斗直至胜利。
接下来在 2025 年：随着战争的持续，乌克兰人对迅速加入北约和欧盟的希望逐渐破灭，盖洛普将继续就他们对未来的看法进行调查。
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- If you thought 2024 was a tough year, buckle up for 2025.
The “say no to the status quo” year of elections is over. Voters in more than 60 countries, including 10 of the world’s most populous nations, went to the polls. The results were often disastrous for incumbent parties; if they didn’t lose outright, like in the U.S. and the United Kingdom, they won with less support than expected. The challenge for the winners, now, will be to govern.
Far from over are the conflicts that raged throughout 2024. Although the fall of the Assad regime in December brought an abrupt end to Syria’s long civil war, there are still more active conflicts now than at any point since World War II. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is holding for now -- and Israel and Hamas may be inching toward one -- but peace prospects for Ukraine and Russia are dim.
Through it all, Gallup continues to ask people around the world important questions about their lives as we gather global statistics on how humanity feels.
As Gallup gets ready to start its 20th year of surveying the world, we look back at the biggest global discoveries from 2024 with an eye toward what’s in store for 2025.
And the Happiest Country in the World Is … Not the United States. For the first time in the World Happiness Report’s 12-year history, the U.S. didn’t earn a spot among the top 20 happiest countries in the world. It’s No. 23 -- down from a 15th-place finish the previous year.
Next in 2025: Find out where the U.S. ranks now when Gallup and its research partners at the University of Oxford Wellbeing Research Centre, the U.N. Sustainable Development Solutions Network and the World Happiness Report's editorial board publish their next report on March 20. The theme for the 2025 report will be “caring and sharing.”
Global Safety Starts to Slip: Gallup’s latest annual update on global safety revealed people worldwide feel safer today than they did a decade ago, but there are signs that this progress is in jeopardy. Raising people’s trust in their local police and their satisfaction with their local communities may be key to reversing this trend.
Next in 2025: Although countries like El Salvador made the “most safe” list for the first time in 2024, Latin America still ranks as the “least safe” region in the world. Find out if this is still true and how safe the rest of the world feels with Gallup’s next Global Safety Report.
Who Trusts Elections? Bulgarians don’t. Before they went to the polls in 2024, only 10% of Bulgarians trusted the honesty of their elections -- the lowest rate in the world. The lack of trust in elections was a theme for voters in Pakistan and South Africa, and even though confidence was up in Mexico, just 44% of Mexicans expressed faith in their elections. But ahead of the world’s biggest election, in India, seven in 10 adults expressed confidence, earning it a spot in the top 20 countries globally.
Next in 2025: Gallup will continue to track people’s confidence in their elections and measure their attitudes on the issues that likely influence their choices about who leads them. Germany and Canada will be in the spotlight in 2025 as their voters head to the polls.
Desire to Migrate Remains at Record High: Gallup’s latest global migration data show people’s desire to leave their country remains higher than it was a decade ago. This is true in almost every part of the world, from traditionally migrant-sending regions like sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America to migrant-receiving regions like the U.S. and Canada.
Next in 2025: Just under one in five potential migrants (18%) -- or about 170 million adults worldwide -- named the U.S. as their desired future residence. However, this figure remains down from where it was in all years leading up to 2017. Find out if the U.S. is still the most attractive destination when Gallup updates these figures in 2025.
China vs. the U.S.: The U.S. is currently beating China in the competition for leadership approval in much of the world. But a Gallup analysis shows this approval can depend a great deal on who is in power.
Next in 2025: Based on relative net approval scores, the U.S. enjoyed an advantage in 81 out of 133 countries that Gallup surveyed in 2023, while China had an advantage in 52. Find out whether the U.S. held on to its leadership approval advantage in 2024.
Ukrainians Seek a Quick End to the War: Ukrainians’ attitudes toward the war shifted in late 2024. For the first time, a slim majority of Ukrainian adults (52%) said they would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. Nearly four in 10 Ukrainians (38%) believed their country should keep fighting until victory.
Next in 2025: With their hopes for quick accession to NATO and the EU fading as the war drags on, Gallup will continue to survey Ukrainians about what they think their future holds.
Dim Outlook for Peace in the Middle East: Few people in Israel or the West Bank and East Jerusalem think peace will ever be reached in the long-running conflict between Israel and Palestine. Two-thirds of people living in Israel (66%) and in the West Bank and East Jerusalem (68%) think a permanent peace will never be achieved.
Next in 2025: With Hamas and Israel getting closer to a possible ceasefire, Gallup plans to return to the region next year and find out what Palestinians and Israelis see in their future.
Americans’ Harsh Judgment of Their Courts: Americans’ confidence in their nation’s judicial system and courts dropped to a record-low 35% in 2024. The result further sets the U.S. apart from other wealthy nations, where a majority, on average, still expresses trust in an institution that relies largely on the public’s confidence to protect its authority and independence.
Next in 2025: Gallup will track whether attitudes change when Donald Trump returns to the White House. But if confidence in the courts remains jaded, it could undermine the public’s faith in the legitimacy of important legal cases and decisions.
来源：非 常道
