摘要：Jeffrey M. Jones, Ph.D., has served as a Gallup Senior Editor since 2000, overseeing research and conducting analysis for Gallup's

共和党在 2022 年之前只占据过一次优势

作者：Jeffrey M. Jones

Jeffrey M. Jones, Ph.D., has served as a Gallup Senior Editor since 2000, overseeing research and conducting analysis for Gallup's U.S. polling and other public release surveys. His research on public opinion and voting behavior has been published in academic journals and edited books.杰弗里·M·琼斯博士自2000年起担任盖洛普高级编辑，负责监督盖洛普美国民意调查及其他公开发布的调查的研究并进行分析。他关于民意和投票行为的研究成果发表于学术期刊并编著书籍。

专业领域：美国民意调查与研究

华盛顿特区——2024年，美国人的政党偏好依然分歧很大，共和党连续第三年略占优势。总体而言，46%的美国人认为自己是共和党人或倾向于共和党的独立人士，而45%的美国人认为自己是民主党人或倾向于民主党的独立人士。在2022年之前，共和党仅在1991年有过一次微弱优势。

这些结果基于 2024 年盖洛普电话调查的综合数据，涵盖对 14,000 多名美国成年人的采访。

盖洛普调查了美国人的政治认同，包括共和党人、民主党人还是独立人士。然后，这些政治认同为独立人士的人会被问及他们更倾向于共和党还是民主党。

自 1991 年以来，盖洛普一直在持续测量独立人士的政治倾向。在这段时间的大部分时间里，民主党在综合党派认同和倾向方面至少略占优势，包括从 1992 年到 2001 年、2004 年到 2010 年以及 2012 年到 2021 年。

民主党的优势在 2008 年最大，为 12 个百分点，但到 2011 年则缩小至零，之后十年又稳定在 2 至 6 个百分点的范围内。

过去三年，人们对美国局势发展不甚满意，对美国经济的评价也较为负面，民主党总统乔·拜登的工作支持率也较低，共和党略占优势，仅领先一到两个百分点。在执政的民主党面临如此严峻的形势下，共和党最终在2022年大选中赢得了美国众议院的控制权，并在2024年大选中赢得了美国参议院的控制权和总统职位。

近期，民主党在党派归属上的优势已转向共和党，这一趋势在大多数美国主要群体中都较为明显。在西班牙裔美国人（从27%增至36%）、年轻人（从33%增至39%）、低收入人群（从36%增至41%）、无大学学历人群（从45%增至50%）、天主教徒（从42%增至47%）以及黑人（从12%增至17%）中，共和党认同度和倾向的增幅均略高于平均水平。

自 2021 年以来，共和党党员人数几乎没有增加的子群体包括大学毕业生（从 41% 增加到 42%）、65 岁及以上的成年人（从 49% 增加到 48%）、非西班牙裔白人（从 53% 增加到 54%）、已婚人士（从 51% 增加到 52%）、高收入人群（从 47% 增加到 48%）和中等收入人群（从 46% 增加到 47%）、政治自由主义者（从 9% 增加到 10%）和非宗教人士（从 25% 增加到 26%）。

当初次被问及2024年的政治立场时，美国人最有可能认同自己是独立人士（43%），其中28%的人表示自己是民主党人，28%的人表示自己是共和党人。自2011年以来，每年都有至少39%的美国人认同自己是政治独立人士，最新数据追平了2014年和2023年创下的最高纪录。

在过去三年中，每年自认为共和党人和民主党人的美国人比例均相等。这与前几年相比形成了鲜明对比，当时更多的美国成年人自认为是民主党人，尽管在1991年、2002年和2003年，共和党略微领先，而在2004年和2005年，两党势均力敌，情况并非如此。自1988年以来，盖洛普一直采用统一的电话访谈方法询问初始党派认同问题。

两党在无倾向性政党认同度方面都接近历史最低点。民主党在2023年创下的历史最低纪录是27%。在2015年之前，该比例从未低于30%，但过去10年中有6年一直低于这一水平。

共和党认同率的最低点是2013年的25%。上一次达到30%或以上是在2006年，过去六年一直稳定在28%左右。因此，过去三年共和党总体归属率的上升，归因于更多独立人士倾向于共和党，而非更多美国人直接认同自己是共和党人。

长期以来，民主党在美国成年人口中的政党偏好至少略占优势。但在过去三年里，在不受欢迎的拜登政府的领导下，共和党的认同和倾向已经超过了民主党。因此，随着共和党准备在未来两到四年内控制联邦政府，这种政党偏好有可能重新转向民主党。这种情况是否会发生，很大程度上取决于美国人对共和党执政下的国家状况感到满意还是不满。

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ political party preferences remained closely divided in 2024, with the Republican Party having a slight edge for the third consecutive year. Overall, 46% of Americans identified as Republicans or independents who leaned toward the Republican Party, compared with 45% who identified as Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Prior to 2022, Republicans only had a slight edge once before, in 1991.

These results are based on combined data from 2024 Gallup telephone surveys, encompassing interviews with more than 14,000 U.S. adults.

Gallup asks Americans if they identify politically as a Republican, a Democrat or an independent. Those who identify as political independents are then asked whether they lean more toward the Republican Party or the Democratic Party.

Gallup has measured the political leanings of independents consistently since 1991. For most of this time, the Democratic Party has held at least a slight edge in combined party identification and leaning, including from 1992 through 2001, 2004 through 2010, and 2012 through 2021.

The Democratic advantage was largest in 2008, at 12 percentage points, but shrank to zero by 2011 before settling into the two-to-six-point range for the next decade.

In the past three years, which were marked by low satisfaction with the way things were going in the United States, negative evaluations of the U.S. economy and low job approval ratings for Democratic President Joe Biden, Republicans have held slight advantages of one to two points. Amid this challenging climate for the incumbent Democratic Party, Republicans won control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2022 elections and the U.S. Senate and the presidency in the 2024 elections.

The recent shift from a Democratic to Republican advantage in party affiliation is apparent in most major subgroups of Americans. There have been slightly larger-than-average increases in Republican identification and leaning among Hispanic Americans (from 27% to 36%), young adults (33% to 39%), lower-income Americans (36% to 41%), those without a college degree (45% to 50%), Catholics (42% to 47%) and Black Americans (12% to 17%).

Among the subgroups showing little to no increase in Republican Party affiliation since 2021 are college graduates (from 41% to 42%), adults aged 65 and older (49% to 48%), non-Hispanic White people (53% to 54%), married people (51% to 52%), upper-income (47% to 48%) and middle-income Americans (46% to 47%), political liberals (9% to 10%), and nonreligious Americans (25% to 26%).

Independent Identification Holds at Record-High 43%

When initially asked for their political party identification in 2024, Americans were most likely to identify as independents (43%), with 28% saying they were Democrats and 28% Republicans. Pluralities of at least 39% of Americans have identified as political independents each year since 2011, with the latest figure tying the record high, previously registered in 2014 and 2023.

In each of the past three years, equal percentages of Americans have identified as Republicans and Democrats. This contrasts with earlier years when more U.S. adults identified as Democrats, although this was not the case in 1991, 2002 and 2003, when Republicans led by a slight margin, and in 2004 and 2005, when the parties tied. Gallup has asked the initial party identification question using a consistent telephone interviewing methodology since 1988.

Both parties are near their historic low points in unleaned party identification. Democrats’ record low was 27%, measured in 2023. After not registering under 30% until 2015, the percentage has been below that mark in six of the past 10 years.

The low point in Republican identification was 25% in 2013. It was last at 30% or above in 2006 and has been stable at around 28% over the past six years. As such, the increase in total Republican Party affiliation over the past three years is attributable to more independents leaning Republican rather than more Americans identifying outright as Republican.

Bottom Line

The Democratic Party long had at least a slight edge in party preferences among the U.S. adult population. But in the past three years, under an unpopular Biden administration, Republican identification and leaning has exceeded that of Democrats. It is possible, then, that with Republicans poised to control the federal government for the next two to four years, that party preferences will shift back toward the Democrats. Whether that happens will depend largely on whether Americans are pleased or displeased with the state of the nation under Republican rule.

来源：非常道