摘要：Megan Brenan is a Senior Editor at Gallup. Brenan uses her expertise in analysis and questionnaire design to advise on Gallup clie

王雨沐：Political Fundamentals Foreshadowed Trump Victory（政治基本面预示了特朗普的胜利）

Trump's personal vulnerabilities mattered less

特朗普的个人弱点不那么重要

BY MEGAN BRENAN, JEFFREY M. JONES AND LYDIA SAAD

作者：梅根·布伦南、杰弗里·M·琼斯和莉迪亚·萨阿德

Megan Brenan is a Senior Editor at Gallup. Brenan uses her expertise in analysis and questionnaire design to advise on Gallup client survey projects. She also writes data-driven articles on a broad range of topics for Gallup.com, including economic, political and business matters.

梅根·布伦南是盖洛普的高级编辑。布伦南利用她在分析和问卷设计方面的专业知识为盖洛普客户的调查项目提供建议。她还为盖洛普撰写了大量关于经济、政治和商业等广泛主题的数据驱动文章。

Jeffrey M. Jones, Ph.D., has served as a Gallup Senior Editor since 2000, overseeing research and conducting analysis for Gallup's U.S. polling and other public release surveys. His research on public opinion and voting behavior has been published in academic journals and edited books.

杰弗里·M·琼斯博士自2000年以来一直担任盖洛普高级编辑，负责盖洛普美国民意调查和其他公共发布调查的研究和分析。他在学术刊物和编辑书籍上发表了关于公众意见和投票行为的研究。

Lydia Saad is the Director of U.S. Social Research at Gallup, where she is responsible for maintaining Gallup’s long-term trends and ongoing measurement of U.S. public opinion. In this role, Lydia writes extensively for Gallup’s news website covering social, political and economic topics, and speaks to the press about these findings. She also serves on Gallup’s public release committee, which sets and enforces standards for the company’s public-release work, and she chairs the Gallup Institutional Review Board.

Lydia Saad是盖洛普美国社会研究总监，负责维护盖洛普的长期趋势和对美国公众舆论的持续测量。在这个职位上，Lydia为盖洛普的新闻网站撰写了大量关于社会、政治和经济话题的文章，并就这些发现向媒体发表讲话。她还担任盖洛普公共发布委员会的成员，该委员会为公司公共发布工作制定和执行标准，并担任盖洛普机构审查委员会的主席。

华盛顿特区——盖洛普的主要美国政治和经济指标显示，全国情绪在2024年强烈支持共和党。尽管唐纳德·特朗普在支持率和某些重要人物评级方面落后于卡马拉·哈里斯，但他在周二的胜利表明，在预测选举结果方面，选举环境的基本面仍然是最重要的。

如下所详述，美国人对共和党的认同度和倾向在选举日到来之际，加上他们对经济、国家方向和民主党总统乔·拜登的工作表现的负面看法，为特朗普和共和党创造了有利的环境。

经济问题沉重地压在选民的心头

美国登记选民表示，将影响他们选择总统的22个问题中，经济是最重要的。这是大多数选民（52%）认为候选人在这一问题上的立场对他们的投票有“极其重要”的影响的唯一问题，选民们支持特朗普而不是哈里斯，以便更好地处理这个问题，支持率提高了九个百分点。

盖洛普（Gallup）对美国人对当前国民经济状况和未来展望的看法进行的月度追踪显示，自2021年通胀开始上升以来，公众对经济的信心已经偏向负面。盖洛普最终的选举前经济信心得分为-26，更接近总统所在政党在1992年、2008年、2016年输掉选举，而不是在1996年、2004年、2012年赢下选举。2020年，当特朗普败选时，美国人的评价基本上是中性的，尽管其他在任总统在经济信心处于类似水平时获胜。

共和党在党派归属方面占主导地位

美国人的党派倾向与他们如何投票密切相关，因此成为选举结果的重要指标。因此，当盖洛普在第三季度发现共和党人在美国党派认同方面领先于民主党时，这具有重要意义——48%的人认同或倾向于共和党，而45%的人认同或倾向于民主党。

共和党的优势在10月份得以保持，这与自1992年以来所有先前选举的最后一个月的政党平衡形成了鲜明对比。从1992年到2020年，在选举日之前的一个月，民主党在选民的政党偏好中领先于共和党。

民主党在总统选举年赢得白宫时，他们在党派归属方面拥有比正常情况更大的优势，包括1992年、1996年、2008年、2012年和2020年。在民主党优势较窄的年份，例如2004年和2016年，即使共和党在普选中失利，共和党也会在选举人团中获胜。因此，共和党今年在党派认同方面罕见的领先优势使特朗普处于有利地位，除非民主党的投票率远远超过共和党的投票率。

国民满意度持续偏低

二十多年来，只有不到一半的美国人对国家的发展方向持积极态度，但这种观点水平上的差异对现任总统所在的政党有着重要影响。尽管对国家发展方向的高满意度并不总是保证现任政党获胜，但低满意度总是与现任政党的失败相对应。

在盖洛普 10 月的最后一次大选前调查中，有 26% 的美国人表示他们对美国目前的形势感到满意。这一水平与现任政党在总统选举中失败的年份一致，包括 1992 年（22%）、2008 年（13%）和 2020 年（28%）。现任政党获胜时满意度最低的一年是 2012 年，为 33%。

共和党有望解决最重要的问题

9月份，美国人认为共和党比民主党更能解决他们认为国家面临的最重要问题的比例从41%上升到46%。美国人经常提到的最重要的具体问题往往对共和党有利，包括10月份的经济（21%）、移民（21%）、政府（17%）和通货膨胀（14%）。

自1948年以来，这一指标在盖洛普趋势中对选举结果的预测性极高。自那一年开始，被评定为更能处理最重要问题的政党，在总统选举中除了两次之外都赢得了胜利。唯一一次该指标与结果不一致是在1948年，当时美国人认为共和党更能处理最重要的问题（国际问题），但民主党现任总统哈里·杜鲁门再次当选。1980年，两党打成平手，当时通胀是首要问题，而2000年没有提出这个问题。

总统的工作批准率处于历史低点

拜登退出2024年总统竞选的决定，将总统工作支持率从可以说是今年最重要的选举指标之一，转变为次要重要指标之一。拜登在选举前的最终工作支持率为41%，远低于过去连任总统的48%的门槛。特朗普在2020年选举中失利，当时有46%的人支持他作为总统的工作。

拜登的不受欢迎程度可能仍然影响了选举，以至于选民将他们对拜登政府的失望情绪转移到了哈里斯身上。就她而言，45%的美国成年人10月份对她作为副总统的工作表示认可。

在总统选举年，如果现任总统不竞选连任，反对党几乎都会获胜，只有1988年例外。无论现任总统在选举时受欢迎（1960年、2000年和2016年）或不受欢迎（1952年、1968年和2008年），这些失败都会发生。与今年的情况不同，所有这些选举都是在现任总统在之前的选举中当选第二个总统任期之后进行的。

特朗普的个性对选民来说显然不那么重要

美国选民对候选人个人品质的评分显示，哈里斯比特朗普更受欢迎，在道德品质、诚实和值得信赖方面，哈里斯的领先优势较小。特朗普比哈里斯更受美国选民的青睐，认为他是一位强大、果断的领导人，能够完成工作。在盖洛普10月底的最后一次选举前民调中，更多美国人认为哈里斯比特朗普更受欢迎。

特朗普在选举中的稳固优势表明，他所认为的领导能力可能抵消了他受欢迎程度和个人性格的不足，选民更多地受到国家环境（经济和国家方向）的影响，而不是候选人因素。

暗指

选民通常会在选举日奖励执政党，如果他们对国家状况感到满意，就会惩罚执政党。根据这一惯例，美国人对国家状况的持续不满似乎是现任总统党连续第三次选举失败的原因。选民不满的来源从四年前的新冠疫情和种族关系转向了今年的经济焦虑和移民问题，让美国人在总体上不受欢迎的民主党政府执政四年后，与不受欢迎的共和党政府执政四年后一样，对国家状况感到不满。

美国人对特朗普个人的任何保留意见似乎都不如他们对国家状况的不满重要。这种不满也帮助共和党在下个国会任期内赢得了美国参议院的控制权——如果共和党在众议院保持控制，并在未来几天内确定最终竞选结果，他们可能会获得对联邦政府的完全控制。

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup’s key U.S. political and economic indicators signaled that the nation’s mood strongly favored the Republicans in 2024. While Donald Trump lagged Kamala Harris in favorability and on certain important character ratings, his victory on Tuesday suggests that fundamentals of the election environment are still preeminent in forecasting election outcomes.

As detailed below, Americans’ relatively high Republican Party identification and leaning heading into Election Day, combined with their negative views of the economy, the direction of the country and the job performance of Democratic President Joe Biden, created a favorable environment for Trump and the Republican Party.

Economic Concerns Weighed Heavily on Voters’ Minds

The economy ranked as the most important of 22 issues that U.S. registered voters said would influence their choice for president. It was the only issue on which a majority of voters, 52%, said the candidates’ positions on it were an “extremely important” influence on their vote, and voters favored Trump over Harris to better handle the issue by nine percentage points.

Public confidence in the economy has skewed negative since inflation began to rise in 2021, according to Gallup’s monthly tracking of Americans’ views of current national economic conditions and their outlook for the future. Gallup’s final preelection economic confidence score of -26 was closer to what it has typically been in losing (1992, 2008, 2016) rather than winning (1996, 2004, 2012) years for the president’s party. In 2020, Americans’ evaluations were essentially neutral when Trump lost, though other incumbent presidents have won when economic confidence was at a similar level.

Republicans Had Lead in Party Affiliation

Americans’ partisanship strongly aligns with how they will vote, making it an important indicator of election outcomes. Thus, it was significant when Gallup found Republicans leading Democrats in U.S. party identification in the third quarter -- 48% identified as or leaned Republican, and 45% identified as or leaned Democratic.

That GOP advantage held in October, a sharp contrast from the party balance in the final month in all prior elections since 1992. From 1992 through 2020, Democrats led Republicans in Americans’ party preferences in the month before Election Day.

Democrats won the White House in presidential election years when they had larger-than-normal advantages in party affiliation, including 1992, 1996, 2008, 2012 and 2020. In years when Democrats’ advantage was narrower -- 2004 and 2016, for example -- Republicans won in the Electoral College if not also the popular vote. Thus, Republicans’ rare lead in party identification this year put Trump in a strong position to win unless Democratic turnout far outpaced Republican turnout.

National Satisfaction Was Persistently Low

Less than half of Americans have felt positively about the direction of the country for over two decades, but differences in the level of that view have important implications for the party of the incumbent president. While high satisfaction with the nation's direction hasn’t always guaranteed incumbent party victory, low satisfaction has always corresponded with incumbent party defeat.

Twenty-six percent of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. in Gallup’s final preelection reading in October. That’s a level consistent with years when the incumbent party lost the presidential election, including in 1992 (22%), 2008 (13%) and 2020 (28%). The lowest satisfaction rating in a year the incumbent party won was 33% in 2012.

Republican Party Favored to Address Most Important Problem

By 46% to 41%, Americans said in September that the Republican Party is better able than the Democratic Party to address what they thought was the most important problem facing the country. The specific issues Americans frequently named as the most important tended to favor the GOP, including in October -- the economy (21%), immigration (21%), the government (17%) and inflation (14%).

This measure has been highly predictive of election outcomes in Gallup trends dating back to 1948. The party rated as better at handling the most important problem has won all but two of the presidential elections since that year in which the question was asked. The only time the measure was out of sync with the outcome was in 1948, when Americans believed the Republican Party was better able to handle the most important problem (international issues) but returned Democratic incumbent Harry Truman to office. The two parties tied in 1980, when inflation was the top issue, while the question was not asked in 2000.

Presidential Job Approval Was Historically Low

Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 race moved presidential job approval from arguably the most important election indicator this year to one of secondary importance. Biden’s 41% final preelection job approval rating was well below the 48% threshold for past presidents who were reelected. Trump lost the 2020 election when 46% approved of the job he was doing as president.

Biden’s unpopularity may still have affected the election to the extent that voters transferred their frustrations with the Biden administration to Harris. For her part, 45% of U.S. adults approved of the job she was doing as vice president in October.

In presidential election years when the incumbent was not running for reelection, the opposition party won all but the 1988 election. These losses occurred whether the incumbent president was popular (1960, 2000 and 2016) or unpopular (1952, 1968 and 2008) at the time of the election. All of those elections, unlike this year’s, came after the incumbent had been elected to serve a second term as president in the prior election.

Trump's Character Apparently Less Important to Voters

Ratings of the candidates’ personal qualities showed Harris had a strong advantage over Trump in U.S. voter perceptions of being likable and smaller leads for having strong moral character and being honest and trustworthy. Trump outpaced Harris in perceptions of being a strong and decisive leader and being able to get things done. More Americans also had a favorable view of Harris than of Trump in Gallup’s final preelection poll in late October.

Trump’s solid margin of victory in the election suggests that his perceived leadership skills may have offset his deficits in likability and personal character and that voters were more influenced by the national environment (the economy and direction of the nation) than by candidate factors.

Implications

Voters usually reward the party in power on Election Day when they are happy with the state of the nation and punish it when they are dissatisfied. Per that norm, Americans’ continued unhappiness with the state of the nation seems responsible for the defeat of the incumbent presidential party for the third consecutive election. The source of voter frustration shifted from COVID-19 and race relations four years ago to economic angst and immigration this year, leaving Americans no happier with the state of the nation after four years of a generally unpopular Democratic administration than after four years of an unpopular Republican one.

Any reservations Americans had about Trump personally seemingly mattered less than their dissatisfaction with the state of the nation. That dissatisfaction also helped Republicans win control of the U.S. Senate in the next congressional term -- and possibly gain complete control of the federal government if the GOP holds control of the House as the final races are determined in the coming days.

来源：非常道