葉啟新：《美国民众对国情咨文的评价仍处于历史低位》

摘要：作者介紹：莉迪亚·萨阿德是盖洛普美国社会研究总监，负责维护盖洛普对美国民意的长期趋势和持续测量。她为盖洛普新闻网站撰写大量文章，涵盖社会、政治和经济话题，并向媒体介绍这些发现。她还是盖洛普公共发布委员会成员，该委员会负责制定并执行公司公共发布工作的标准，同时她

莉迪亚·萨阿德

美国社会研究主任

华盛顿特区

作者介紹：莉迪亚·萨阿德是盖洛普美国社会研究总监，负责维护盖洛普对美国民意的长期趋势和持续测量。她为盖洛普新闻网站撰写大量文章，涵盖社会、政治和经济话题，并向媒体介绍这些发现。她还是盖洛普公共发布委员会成员，该委员会负责制定并执行公司公共发布工作的标准，同时她还担任盖洛普机构审查委员会主席。

Lydia Saad is the Director of U.S. Social Research at Gallup, where she is responsible for maintaining Gallup’s long-term trends and ongoing measurement of U.S. public opinion. In this role, Lydia writes extensively for Gallup’s news website covering social, political and economic topics, and speaks to the press about these findings. She also serves on Gallup’s public release committee, which sets and enforces standards for the company’s public-release work, and she chairs the Gallup Institutional Review Board.

华盛顿特区——唐纳德·特朗普就任第二任期前夕进行的一项盖洛普民意调查显示，美国人认为美国在一些领域蓬勃发展，包括生活质量和军事实力，但他们认为还有更多领域存在不足，例如道德和解决贫困问题。

美国人对美国社会或政策31个不同方面的平均满意度为38%，与乔·拜登总统任期内每年的平均满意度持平。这一数字低于唐纳德·特朗普即将结束第二任期的2021年1月的41%，也低于新冠疫情爆发前的2020年的48%。

在此趋势的前几年里，美国人对国家状况的满意度平均都在 40% 以上，其中 2002 年创下了 54% 的历史新高。那一年的满意度比 2001 年的 49% 增加了 5 个百分点，这在很大程度上反映了 9/11 袭击事件发生后的几个月里美国人对国家暂时的支持。

盖洛普每年一月都会在其“国民情绪”调查中提出这一系列问题。自2001年以来，除2009年和2010年外，满意度榜单每年都包含在调查中；2011年至2013年，满意度榜单仅涵盖有限的几个议题领域。最新一次调查于1月2日至15日进行。

美国人对国家发展方向的总体满意度也历来偏低，尽管今天的满意度得分为20%，与2023年以来的水平相似，但比2021年1月的11%有所提高。这一数据反映了公众在新冠疫情期间的不满情绪，以及2020年大选和1月6日国会大厦遇袭事件后的负面政治氛围。

大多数美国人对国家军队和社会团体地位感到满意

大多数美国人普遍对国家的军事实力、整体生活质量、女性地位、个人发展机会以及对同性恋群体的接纳程度感到满意。

美国人在其他三个问题上意见分歧很大，不满意的人数与满意的人数大致相同：宗教团体的影响力、国家免受恐怖主义侵害的安全保障以及黑人或其他少数族裔群体的地位。

在所有其他衡量指标方面，不满意的美国人比例均高于满意的美国人，这些指标涵盖医疗保健、外交、移民、环境、枪支、种族关系、能源、犯罪、税收、公共教育、堕胎和经济等政策。最后一个方面包括国家应对贫困和无家可归问题的努力，仅获得16%的满意度，是美国人满意度最低的方面。

值得注意的是，美国人对美国医疗质量（45%）的满意度高于对可负担医疗服务可用性（29%）的满意度。他们对技术对社会的影响（43%）比对大公司的规模和影响力（25%）更满意。

党派人士对国家现状的看法

国家的整体生活质量是共和党和民主党大多数人（包括倾向于各自党派的独立人士）感到满意的唯一方面。

两党在其他 13 个问题上存在分歧：

大多数共和党人对七个方面感到满意，而大多数民主党人不满意：枪支法、黑人和其他少数族裔的地位、妇女的地位、有组织的宗教的影响、环境质量、一个人通过努力工作获得成功的机会以及国家对男女同性恋者的接受程度。

至少有一半的民主党人对以下六个方面感到满意，而大约一半或更多的共和党人不满意：美国在世界事务中扮演的角色、国家的军事实力和战备状态、国家免受恐怖主义侵害的安全、国家的经济状况、联邦政府的规模和权力以及当今进入美国的移民水平。

不到一半的两党成员对17个议题感到满意，这些议题涵盖多个国内政策领域，包括堕胎政策、种族关系、医疗保健质量和可负担性、国家政府体制及其运作方式、公共教育以及能源政策等。

随着特朗普上任，两党人士对国家现状的看法将发生重大转变，共和党人会更加满意，而民主党人则不那么满意。虽然这是意料之中的事，但衡量特朗普成功的一个标准，可能是将更多议题纳入两党多数人都满意的范畴。

如今，美国人对大多数问题的满意度都低于2017年1月（特朗普首个总统任期即将开始）的水平，平均满意度从44%降至38%。疫情、种族平等的广泛审查、高通胀、非法移民激增、美国最高法院推翻罗诉韦德案的多布斯案裁决、特朗普的重罪定罪以及两次总统选举都发生在这一时期，这些都可能在一定程度上导致了满意度的下降。

2017年与现在的差异最明显体现在对整体生活质量、大型企业的规模和影响力、公共教育质量、美国人缴纳的联邦税额以及通过努力工作获得成功的机会等方面的满意度——所有这些方面的满意度如今至少下降了13个百分点。其他许多问题的满意度下降幅度也较小。

与2017年相比，美国人如今对种族关系现状以及黑人或其他少数族裔群体地位的满意度明显提高。（然而，这些方面的满意度仍然远低于21世纪初的水平。）

原文：

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- A Gallup poll conducted just before Donald Trump took office for his second term highlights a handful of areas in which Americans believe the country is thriving, including the quality of life and the military, but they perceive many more areas to be falling short, such as morality and addressing poverty.

Americans’ average satisfaction across 31 different aspects of U.S. society or policy is 38%, matching the average each year during Joe Biden’s presidency. This is down from 41% in January 2021 as Donald Trump was finishing his first term, and from 48% in 2020, before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Americans’ satisfaction with national conditions routinely averaged above 40% in all earlier years of the trend, including a record high of 54% in 2002. The five-point increase that year over the 49% measured in 2001 largely reflected Americans’ temporary rally behind the country in the months after the 9/11 attacks.

Gallup asks this question series in January each year as part of its Mood of the Nation survey. The satisfaction list has been part of the survey every year since 2001 except 2009 and 2010, and included only a limited number of issue areas from 2011 through 2013. The latest survey was conducted Jan. 2-15.

Americans’ overall satisfaction with the direction of the country is also historically on the low side, although today’s 20% satisfaction score, similar to the readings since 2023, is improved from 11% in January 2021. That reading captured public discontent during the COVID-19 pandemic as well as with the negative political climate after the 2020 election and Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol.

Majorities of Americans are generally satisfied with the nation’s military strength, the overall quality of life, the position of women, the opportunity for people to get ahead, and the acceptance of gay and lesbian people in the country.

Americans are closely split on three other issues, with about as many dissatisfied as satisfied: the influence of organized religion, the nation’s security from terrorism, and the position of people who are Black or from other racial minority groups.

More Americans are dissatisfied than satisfied with all other aspects measured, spanning policies on healthcare, foreign affairs, immigration, the environment, guns, race relations, energy, crime, taxes, public education, abortion and the economy, among other issues. The last group includes the nation’s efforts to deal with poverty and homelessness, which, at 16%, garners the lowest satisfaction rating from Americans.

Notably, more Americans are satisfied with the quality of medical care in the U.S. (45%) than with the availability of affordable healthcare (29%). They are also more satisfied with the effect technology is having on society (43%) than with the size and influence of major corporations (25%).

Americans’ satisfaction with most of the specific issues is about the same as a year ago. Two exceptions where they have grown slightly more satisfied are race relations and gun policy, increasing by six percentage points each, to 36% and 37%, respectively. Americans’ already-low satisfaction with public education, healthcare and the size and power of the federal government has fallen further, each by five or six points.

Given the timing of the survey, these results offer a baseline for evaluating whether Americans' assessments of the country change during Trump's second term, rather than reflecting his handling of the issues so far.

The overall quality of life in the country is the only aspect with which majorities of Republicans and Democrats, including independents who lean toward each party, are satisfied.

Partisans are at odds on 13 other issues measured:

Majorities of Republicans are satisfied, while majorities of Democrats are dissatisfied, with seven areas: gun laws, the position of Black and other racial minority people, the position of women, the influence of organized religion, the quality of the environment, the opportunity for a person to get ahead through hard work and the acceptance of gay and lesbian people in the nation.

At least half of Democrats are satisfied, while about half or more of Republicans are dissatisfied, with six areas: the role the U.S. plays in world affairs, the nation's military strength and preparedness, the nation’s security from terrorism, the state of the nation’s economy, the size and power of the federal government, and the level of immigration into the country today.

Less than half of both party groups are satisfied with 17 issues encompassing a number of domestic policy issue areas. These include abortion policy, race relations, healthcare quality and affordability, the nation’s system of government and how it works, public education, and energy policy, among others.

Partisans' perspectives on the state of the country will shift significantly with Trump in office, with Republicans becoming more content and Democrats less so. While this is expected, a measure of success for Trump could be moving more issues into the category where majorities in both parties are satisfied.

Americans express less satisfaction on most issues today than they did in January 2017, just before Trump’s first presidential term, summarized in average satisfaction falling from 44% to 38%. The pandemic, broad scrutiny of racial justice, high inflation, a surge of illegal immigration, the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade, Trump’s felony convictions and two presidential elections occurred in this period, each possibly contributing to some of the declines.

The differences between 2017 and now are most pronounced with respect to satisfaction with the overall quality of life, the size and influence of major corporations, the quality of public education, the amount Americans pay in federal taxes, and the opportunity to get ahead by working hard -- all of which have satisfaction percentages that are at least 13 points lower today. And satisfaction with numerous other issues has declined by smaller amounts.

Americans are significantly more satisfied today than in 2017 with the state of race relations and, relatedly, with the position of people who are Black or belong to other racial minority groups. (However, satisfaction with these areas is still sharply lower than it was in the early 2000s.)

Trump assumes office at a time of persistently low satisfaction with the U.S., overall, and with many specific aspects of the country, which is consistent with Americans’ belief that the U.S. lost more ground than it gained during Biden’s presidency.

While Americans are confident that Trump can improve conditions in some areas, they doubt he can in others. And in terms of Trump's track record, they also thought the country lost more ground than it gained at the end of his first term. Although his first job approval rating this year is better than the last one he earned in 2017, it is still among the lowest initial job approval ratings, historically.

Americans' persistent low satisfaction with national conditions may be hard for the nation’s leaders to address; however, the rank order of concerns resulting from this poll offers Trump and officials at all levels of government guidance on where the public might appreciate them focusing their efforts.

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