摘要：斯韦特兰娜·巴本科娃，经济学博士，俄罗斯科学院东方研究所经济研究部高级研究员，俄罗斯高等经济大学世界经济与国际事务系客座讲师。（Svetlana Babenkova, Ph.D. in Economics, Senior Research Fellow in

陈煜：Financial and Economic Development Dynamics of North African Countries: Opportunities for Russia in the New Political Landscape（北非国家金融与经济发展动态：新政治格局下俄罗斯的机遇）

斯韦特兰娜·巴本科娃（Svetlana Babenkova）

斯韦特兰娜·巴本科娃，经济学博士，俄罗斯科学院东方研究所经济研究部高级研究员，俄罗斯高等经济大学世界经济与国际事务系客座讲师。（Svetlana Babenkova, Ph.D. in Economics, Senior Research Fellow in the Depart ment of Economic Research at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences and a Visiting Lecturer in the Department of Foreign Regional Studies of the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.）

引言

北非是非洲和阿拉伯世界中经济增长最快的地区。2023 年，其 GDP 总量增长了 4.2%，相比之下，中东地区 GDP 增长 1.6%，整个非洲地区增长 3.2%。专家预测，2024 年这些国家的市场规模将增长约 4%，其中埃及和摩洛哥将引领这一增长趋势。然而，该地区各国面临诸多挑战，包括气候变化、乌克兰局势导致的粮食供应急剧减少，以及国内严重的宏观经济问题，如高通胀、外汇基础薄弱和各国央行黄金及外汇储备的不断减少 。尽管如此，该地区国家对欧盟的外国直接投资（FDI）仍具有吸引力。中国也在北非积极推行经济政策。最具潜力的市场是创新技术领域，俄罗斯作为信息安全和金融科技解决方案的领先者，也可能试图在这一领域分得一杯羹。

北非国家面临的经济问题：风险与挑战

根据联合国非洲经济委员会的一份报告，2022 年北非面临着一系列挑战，包括不利的天气条件，这对主要农作物产量产生了负面影响，同时外部贷款的利率也有所上升。反过来，这导致由于外汇收入减少，基础商品的出口下降。2023 年，乌克兰冲突带来的不利影响使这些问题更加严重。

北非的产油国，对于这些国家来说，石油出口即便不是唯一的、也是主要的为国家财政带来收入的经济部门，它们逆势而为，从全球市场油价上涨中获取了少量短期利润。

然而，该地区出现的更大的负面趋势几乎完全抵消了这一微小收益：对国际金融机构的依赖，以及来自国际货币基金组织（IMF）、世界银行和波斯湾国家主权财富基金有限的财政援助。其中一笔贷款被用于支付进口小麦，而小麦供应下降了 80%。当然，乌克兰冲突在一定程度上影响了该地区所有国家的经济，但如果说北非国家目前面临的所有问题都始于 2022 年 2 月 24 日的事件，那也是不正确的。埃及当局指出，新冠疫情和乌克兰冲突的后果是其经济问题的主要根源，尽管在这些情况发生之前，该国的外债规模就已经达到了 1680 亿美元，创历史新高。埃及的局势尚未得到改变。除此之外，埃及货币正在贬值，该国正经历一场外汇危机。当前的局面可以追溯到 “阿拉伯之春” 事件后埃及政府的 “改革” 举措。

2011 年突尼斯革命后开始全面爆发的公共危机，在疫情期间仍在持续，近年来，干旱和主要农作物减产使危机进一步恶化。该国经济正在复苏，但速度非常缓慢。根据世界银行的一份报告，2023 年上半年突尼斯国内生产总值仅增长了 1.2%，预计 2024 年的增长率仅为 3%。国际货币基金组织（IMF）也给出了类似的预测，预计 2024 年突尼斯经济将增长 1.9%，2025 年增长 2.3%。

与埃及的情况类似，国际货币基金组织和欧洲银行大力鼓励突尼斯政府接受 10 亿美元的金融援助方案，但对接受援助的条件以及该国为获得援助需要进行的改革只字未提。但该国领导人决定暂时停止接受国际机构的援助方案，这表明尽管这些援助可以帮助解决许多社会经济问题，突尼斯在这一问题上仍奉行极为谨慎的财政政策。

在这种情况下，可以推测突尼斯期望从邻国（如阿尔及利亚）获得以投资形式提供的财政援助。然而，阿尔及利亚自身也需要进行经济改革。阿尔及利亚经济需要进行重大的多样化改革，因为该国的石油和天然气行业约占其国内生产总值的 35%、预算收入的 6% 和出口收入的 95% 以上。该国因氢价格的波动面临经济问题，而石油输出国组织及其盟友（OPEC+）直接或间接地影响着氢价格的调控。不过，天然气产量近 6% 的增长在一定程度上抵消了这一影响。

摩洛哥王国的社会经济形势相对稳定。它也面临着与该地区其他国家相同的问题，但程度较轻，而且由于该国领导层制定了深思熟虑的政策，这些问题对经济的负面影响不那么明显。

尽管经济增长缓慢且不均衡，利比亚经济仍展现出了韧性。根据世界银行的数据，2022 年利比亚经济收缩了 1.2%，主要原因是石油产量下降。该国的失业率持续高企，达到 19.6%，超过 85% 的劳动人口受雇于公共部门或灰色经济领域。尽管面临重大挑战，但鉴于其丰富的财政资源，利比亚在经济复苏和经济多样化方面有着相当明确的路径。

利比亚经济严重依赖石油和天然气，石油和天然气占该国出口的 97%、政府收入的 90% 以上以及国内生产总值的 68%。2023 年，在石油生产因局势改善而保持稳定的情况下，该国经济从 2022 年的衰退中恢复，国内生产总值增长了 12.6%。需求增长继续由私人消费和出口驱动。2023 年，在国内供应链发展的支撑下，通货膨胀率降至 2.4%。2004 年至 2022 年期间，受石油和天然气行业支撑的工业部门约占该国国内生产总值的 61.7%，远远超过制造业（占 GDP 的 4%）和农业（仅占 GDP 的 2.8% ）。

利比亚拥有非洲最大的石油和天然气储量，因此其预算几乎完全依赖于油价，而油价又受到政治不稳定的影响。除此之外，利比亚南部的非正规经济部门，通过人口贩卖、武器和毒品交易不断扩张。自 2011 年以来实施的单边和多边制裁，也给该国的发展之路设置了重重障碍。

农业部门与粮食安全

北非国家面临的另一个挑战是粮食安全问题，因为它们依赖粮食进口。在过去十年中，频繁的干旱和低降雨量影响了突尼斯、阿尔及利亚、摩洛哥和埃及的农业生产。北非国家的经济增长率正在放缓。结果，通货膨胀加剧，预算赤字扩大，家庭收入下降，用于支付进口和维持本国货币汇率的外汇储备也在减少。那些部分收入依赖石油的国家可能受影响较小。然而，基本食品的严重短缺和价格飞涨引发了大部分民众的不满，他们对 “阿拉伯之春” 的事件仍记忆犹新。

氮肥价格上涨对该地区经济产生了负面影响，这是生产氮肥所用的天然气和煤炭成本上升的直接结果。全球氮肥供应商数量有限。2023 年，最大的出口国是俄罗斯、中国、加拿大、美国、摩洛哥和沙特阿拉伯，这些国家在 2022 年和 2023 年分别占全球肥料出口的 51.6% 和 53.3%。鉴于目前肥料市场的危机，这些供应商将争夺北非市场的主导地位。为了进一步加剧这一竞争，中国企业已在推行更严格的定价政策，并在 2023 年底大幅削减了尿素和磷酸盐的出口。

与此同时，沙特企业通过政府大型基金向有需要的国家提供财政支持，在这些国家推广其产品。沙特阿拉伯在大约四十年的时间里一直是世界主要的政府援助提供国之一，在这方面投入的 GDP 占比远远超过西方国家，这并非偶然。

在不稳定的地缘政治和经济形势下，西欧国家、海湾国家和中国已在北非开展经济活动，旨在获取短期经济利益并扩大生产。

对北非国家来说，维持该地区的粮食安全仍然是最重要的目标。实现这一目标的唯一途径是大力投资于主要作物改良品种的开发和种植，促进基因工程研究，并改进水土管理策略。

该地区需要通过在国家发展战略中采用基于风险的方法，在水、能源和粮食的关系中实现可持续发展。

外国直接投资与创新技术的应用：北非的前景

拥有大量原油储备的北非国家经济，传统上可分为 “繁荣型”（埃及、摩洛哥、突尼斯和阿尔及利亚）和 “落后型”（例如利比亚 ）国家。即便如此，所有这些国家都需要外国直接投资。它们还面临着经济多元化的压力，以便减少对能源和农业的依赖，并专注于引进创新技术。此外，北非的 “繁荣型” 国家正迅速成为发展初创企业和金融技术的有吸引力的平台。大多数阿拉伯国家已加入第四次工业革命，这无疑有利于引进创新技术。在世界知识产权组织 2022 年全球创新指数（衡量创新进展的指标）中，突尼斯和摩洛哥的得分高于一些富裕的海湾国家。

尽管该地区国家有积极的发展指标，也渴望实现国民经济现代化，但它们在研发方面的支出仍然不足，不到 GDP 的 1%（相比之下，美国在研发上的支出占 GDP 的 3.5%，欧盟国家平均占 2.5% ）。各国政府当然也在尽其所能支持创新和初创企业领域。阿拉伯国家，特别是黎巴嫩的实践经验表明，初创企业发展的私营部门可以成为创新的驱动力，尤其是在金融技术领域。然而，该领域在北非面临着各种障碍，包括繁琐的官僚程序、劳动力短缺、工业潜力在信息技术中的利用不足、蓬勃发展的影子经济、滞后的现代化进程和不稳定的金融部门。在国家层面，领导人试图通过创建特殊的监管框架、实施项目以及设立新的政府部门来鼓励初创企业的发展。

在该地区推广初创企业时，资金机会的缺乏也成为一个挑战。外国直接投资主要流向有大量国有资本参与的大型公共或私人项目，而初创企业虽然对经济挑战更具灵活性和韧性，但它们只能涉足政府未触及的细分领域和行业。

尽管北非国家的农业部门面临诸多问题，但与其他经济部门相比，该部门的外国直接投资要么不存在，要么微乎其微。农业、可再生能源和饮用水供应被视为该地区初创企业正在开发的主要领域。例如，2022 年，摩洛哥政府和世界银行发起了 “AgriTech4Morocco 创新挑战”，以鼓励在清洁可再生能源领域的创新，而在突尼斯，农业发展集团（GDA）西迪阿穆尔正在推广一种可持续农村发展模式。

投资的具体去向主要取决于投资国。不过可以明确的是，欧洲公司正在将工业生产 “转移” 到成本较低的地区。此外，值得注意的是，西欧国家积极推广的众多环境项目并不总是对个别行业的发展产生积极影响。

许多欧洲工业公司要么不得不清算业务，要么将业务转移到美国或中国。这种 “产业转移” 可归因于多种因素，其中最显著的是从俄罗斯进口的燃料和矿产资源价格上涨。对西欧公司来说，转移到北非很有吸引力，因为这能让它们以更低的价格从俄罗斯购买能源资源。但这一过程存在障碍，包括薄弱的投资法律框架、繁琐的官僚程序和安全问题。

同样值得注意的是中国在该地区的既得利益：华为代表宣布，公司将向北非国家投资 4.3 亿美元，用于创建云计算基础设施，并为当地软件供应商提供支持和培训信息技术专家。2023 年，中国企业家在摩洛哥开设了价值 193 亿美元的浙江华友钴业工厂，用于生产电动汽车电池组件。北非占中国全球投资的 8.7%。

国际金融机构对北非国家经济的影响

国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际金融机构已经或表示愿意为处于不稳定财务状况的北非国家提供财政支持。这些组织不仅对受援国的经济政策有直接影响，还对整个地区产生影响。它们的活动塑造了该地区的发展轨迹和经济联系，关注宏观经济层面和社会正义，并建议进行政治变革。虽然它们在各种发展计划的名义下实施的政策带来的结果喜忧参半，但它们确实在该地区为自己创造了有利条件。出于自身财务利益的考虑，债权国首先希望收回以贷款形式发放的资金，并实现自己的经济和外交政策目标，而不是解决受援国的问题。毫不夸张地说，西方债权国利用其政治影响力来监管国际金融组织的活动，包括在中东和北非地区（MENA）。它们收集和分析在该地区国家实施的计划的有效性信息，从而长期获取巨额利润。

埃及在吸引国际金融援助和债权国数量方面领先。自 2013 年以来，它已从国际货币基金组织获得 80 亿美元援助，从欧盟获得 81 亿美元，从沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和科威特获得 230 亿美元，从阿布扎比的 ADQ 主权财富基金获得 350 亿美元。

摩洛哥并不急于对外借款。分析人士预测，由于预计旅游收入和国内需求会增加，通货膨胀率会降低，2024 - 2027 年期间经济将继续以 3.6% 的速度增长。突尼斯经济处于危机状态。该国公共债务占 GDP 的 80%，依赖于北非银行和外国金融机构的贷款。即便如此，尽管经济融资困难，当局仍继续拒绝国际货币基金组织的贷款提议。分析人士担心突尼斯可能随时拖欠外债，认为如果没有外部财政援助，该国可能会成为 “北非的黎巴嫩”。

该地区许多国家的金融部门已开始因应内部和外部的经济及政治变化而进行转型。在过去十年中，大多数主要的西方贷款机构，包括英国和法国的银行（巴克莱银行、丰业银行、法国巴黎银行和法国兴业银行）都撤出了北非。这为当地银行，主要是摩洛哥和埃及的银行，在这些国家发展并成为市场领导者打开了大门。西欧银行的撤离是因为这些国家需要发展自己独立的金融市场，并形成有竞争力的金融环境，其中包括伊斯兰银行。尽管埃及国民银行、米斯尔银行和阿提加瓦法银行现在是中东和北非地区资产排名前 30 的银行，但西方公司不会轻易放弃资源丰富的北非市场，包括通过国际金融机构来维持影响力。

非洲十大银行中有六家至少有一个北非国家作为创始成员。尽管汇率波动剧烈、通货膨胀，以及经济关键农业部门的投资和出口量下降，这些银行仍继续稳定运营。

在北非国家，气候融资已成为一个具有吸引力的投资领域。摩洛哥遭受了干旱和地震，利比亚因致命的洪水和大坝决堤导致数千人丧生，阿尔及利亚则一直在与野火作斗争。在这种背景下，为旨在预防或缓解气候变化的项目提供资金，可能会成为北非投资计划中的一种趋势。气候变化引发的自然灾害影响各国的经济增长，直接或间接地破坏就业、通货膨胀、生活水平和官方财政政策等各个经济方面。

气候变化带来的挑战影响各国的保险和金融能力，以及整个金融系统的可持续性。据估计，为实施粮农组织 2022 - 2025 年气候变化战略行动计划所设想的项目，每年需要 257 亿美元。与此同时，2023 年北非在气候变化方面的投资总额为 59 亿美元，仅为所需资金的 23%。这些项目高达 80% 的气候融资来自外国投资者，北非国家的公共部门仅提供了 18%。

该地区的许多经济部门，如太阳能和风能生产以及农业，为私人投资提供了充足的机会。此外，农业部门作为就业岗位的重要提供者，在所有北非国家的 GDP 中仍占有重要份额。

俄罗斯与北非国家的经济合作领域

俄罗斯与北非国家的互动呈现出 “波浪式” 的特点。在很大程度上，莫斯科与该地区保持着极为良好的关系，与此同时，在经济和政治方面，俄罗斯也在逐步拉开与这些国家的距离。俄罗斯正通过举办各类论坛和峰会，包括俄罗斯 - 非洲峰会以及各种金砖国家活动，努力在不断变化的地缘政治和经济空间中构建新型关系。

金砖国家极大地助力了俄罗斯与北非国家的合作，且具有巨大的潜力。在金砖国家内部构建新的金融、经济和政治走廊架构，能让俄罗斯以最低的金融成本，以平等伙伴关系的形式，发展与最具潜力地区国家的合作。在制裁压力不断加大的背景下，与北非国家的互动对俄罗斯而言，不仅具有现实意义，更是至关重要。

北非国家也不仅致力于与莫斯科建立建设性关系，还力求在新世界体系中为自己谋得一席之地，与其他国家建立平等关系，毫无 “殖民依赖” 的迹象。这一点从埃及这个新加入金砖国家的案例中可以看出，阿尔及利亚和摩洛哥这两个金砖国家候选国的情况也是如此。在金砖国家框架内发展合作表明，北非国家有兴趣深化与中国和俄罗斯的关系。不过，从经济角度来看，现在就对这种合作得出结论还为时尚早。

目前，俄罗斯企业与该地区国家在以下领域开展互动：农业、教育、炼油与生产、冶金、化工和食品工业、核能以及太空项目。俄罗斯企业阿尔罗萨（Alrosa）、卢克石油（LUKOIL）、雷诺瓦（Renova）、俄铝（Rusal）、俄罗斯国家原子能公司（Rosatom）、俄罗斯石油公司（Rosneft）和诺德黄金（Nordgold）目前正在非洲实施经济项目。2023 年，俄罗斯银行协会与西非银行家协会签署的谅解备忘录规定实施多个项目，以支持俄罗斯与非洲国家在金融领域的合作，但与该地区的合作还有更大的发展潜力。

根据瓦尔代国际辩论俱乐部（Valdai Club）的数据，2011 年至 2021 年间，俄罗斯与非洲国家的贸易额增长了 1.5 倍，从 122 亿美元增至 177 亿美元。

2023 年，俄罗斯与非洲的贸易额达到 245 亿美元，比 2022 年增长 37%。2024 年前 8 个月，贸易额同比增长 18.5%，达到 186 亿美元。粮食出口尤为重要，因为非洲近 30% 的粮食供应来自俄罗斯。俄罗斯在非洲的主要贸易伙伴都位于非洲北部，具体是埃及、阿尔及利亚和摩洛哥，这三个国家的贸易额约占俄罗斯与非洲贸易总额的 70%。2023 年，俄罗斯对非洲的出口中近 90% 是石油、石油产品、小麦、金属和冶金产品。从非洲的进口主要是水果、坚果、可可和咖啡等农产品。

北非地区已展现出推动整个非洲金融科技行业发展的巨大潜力。根据南非德豪国际会计师事务所（BDO South Africa）的一份报告，埃及的新金融科技初创企业数量占整个非洲的 9.6%。该国已在这一领域实施了 65 个项目，领先于突尼斯（6 个项目）和摩洛哥（4 个项目）。数字支付和移动钱包被视为该地区金融业的关键发展领域。在俄罗斯，快速支付系统的使用量正在积极增长，根据 2023 年的数据，平均每人每月进行 7 笔交易，这一数字是七国集团（G7）国家的四倍，是二十国集团（G20）国家的两倍。这些数据表明，俄罗斯国内有潜力开发具有竞争力的支付系统，并且进入北非国际市场的机会正在增多，尤其是在金砖国家框架内。

在金融领域合作发展方面，尽管俄罗斯和伊朗都面临着来自西方集体的制裁压力，但俄罗斯的 “米尔”（Mir）支付系统和伊朗的 “谢塔布”（Shetab）支付系统成功整合，这一点值得关注。引入单一结算系统是一个可以推动俄罗斯联邦与北非国家在金融领域关系发展的项目。这只是俄罗斯和埃及在金砖国家框架内讨论的问题之一，此外还包括改用本币进行双边结算的可能性。

根据瓦尔代国际辩论俱乐部（Valdai Club）的数据，2011 年至 2021 年间，俄罗斯与非洲国家之间的贸易增长了 1.5 倍，贸易额从 122 亿美元增长到 177 亿美元 。2023 年，俄罗斯与非洲的贸易额达到 245 亿美元，比 2022 年增长 37%。2024 年前 8 个月，贸易额同比增长 18.5%，达到 186 亿美元。粮食出口尤为重要，因为非洲近 30% 的粮食供应来自俄罗斯。俄罗斯在非洲的主要贸易伙伴都位于非洲北部，具体是埃及、阿尔及利亚和摩洛哥，这三个国家的贸易额约占俄罗斯与非洲贸易总额的 70%。2023 年，俄罗斯对非洲的出口中近 90% 是石油、石油产品、小麦、金属和冶金产品。从非洲的进口主要是水果、坚果、可可和咖啡等农产品。

北非地区展现出推动整个非洲金融科技行业发展的巨大潜力。根据南非德豪国际会计师事务所（BDO South Africa）的一份报告，埃及的新金融科技初创企业数量占整个非洲的 9.6%。该国已在这一领域实施了 65 个项目，领先于突尼斯（6 个项目）和摩洛哥（4 个项目）。数字支付和移动钱包被视为该地区金融业的关键发展领域。在俄罗斯，快速支付系统的使用量正积极增长，根据 2023 年的数据，平均每人每月进行 7 笔交易，这一数字是七国集团（G7）国家的四倍，是二十国集团（G20）国家的两倍。这些数据表明，俄罗斯国内有潜力发展具有竞争力的支付系统，并且进入北非国际市场的机会正在增多，尤其是在金砖国家框架内。

在金融领域合作发展方面，尽管俄罗斯和伊朗都面临着来自西方集体的制裁压力，但俄罗斯的 “米尔”（Mir）支付系统与伊朗的 “谢塔布”（Shetab）支付系统成功整合，这一点值得关注。引入单一结算系统是一个可以推动俄罗斯联邦与北非国家在金融领域关系发展的项目。这只是俄罗斯和埃及在金砖国家框架内讨论的问题之一，此外还包括改用本币进行双边结算的可能性。

俄罗斯的银行技术可以推动俄罗斯与北非国家之间的互利合作。与埃及的合作尤其具有前景，因为该国对创新产品的市场需求得到了国家层面的支持。埃及政府致力于推动金融创新数字化，以此作为打击日益猖獗的影子经济的一种手段。同样值得一提的是，与伊斯兰银行业建立联系的可能性。一项为合作（伊斯兰）融资活动建立实验性法律制度的草案已经获得通过。虽然北非的伊斯兰银行市场不如海湾国家或伊朗那么发达，但该行业仍有发展潜力，包括作为该地区国家与俄罗斯互动的一部分。2024 年，俄罗斯农业综合体预计将把对北非国家的清真食品出口额提高到 4 亿美元，并且有关这一问题的谈判已经完成。通过金融中介机构支付这些产品的款项，甚至用本币支付，不失为一个好主意。该项目还将进一步推动俄罗斯合作银行业务的发展。

2022 年，流入非洲国家的外国直接投资（FDI）达 450 亿美元，与前些年的平均水平大致相当。然而在 2021 年，这些国家吸引的外国直接投资达 800 亿美元，其中 420 亿美元流入了南非。60 流向非洲的外国直接投资主要来自欧洲国家。2022 年，英国、法国、荷兰、意大利和德国的投资额总计 2120 亿美元，而中国的投资额为 440 亿美元。

2022 年，北非国家对俄罗斯的外国直接投资存量相对较少。与此同时，俄罗斯对北非国家的外国直接投资达到 6381 万美元，是欧洲国家对北非投资额（1584 万美元）的四倍。62 此外，据俄罗斯联邦经济发展部的一位官方代表称，俄罗斯企业有兴趣在非洲国家投资，该部正在努力与几个非洲国家签署促进和相互保护投资的协议。截至 2024 年 11 月，已与安哥拉、埃及、津巴布韦、利比亚、赤道几内亚和南非签署了六项此类协议，另有两项（与刚果和摩洛哥的协议）已进入谈判后期阶段。

此外，欧亚开发银行（EDB）的成员国接收了来自多个中东和北非国家的投资。而且，欧亚开发银行成员国与中东和北非地区的穆斯林伙伴国之间的相互投资额达 102 亿美元，对欧亚开发银行成员国的投资额达到 68 亿美元。北非与欧亚开发银行之间的经济合作形式包括为基础设施项目提供资金、开采油气矿床以及发展伊斯兰银行业务。

在所有可能的合作领域中，金融领域最具前景。然而，在当前形势下，俄罗斯发现在争夺北非信息技术市场方面，很难与中国和东南亚国家等竞争。

在与北非国家实施项目时，俄罗斯可能不得不应对许多西方国家不愿离开利润丰厚的非洲市场的情况，这可能会使合作的发展变得复杂。例如，该地区国家对国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际金融机构贷款的依赖，可能会影响它们的政治决策。

不过，银行业双边关系的障碍正在逐步消除。例如，2023 年年中，俄罗斯和阿尔及利亚签署了《深化合作宣言》，这将确保两国金融机构之间直接联系的发展，并鼓励向本币进行国家间结算的方向转变。

各国之间的互动基于军事技术领域（始于苏联时期）、能源和太空领域的合作。然而，向多极世界秩序的逐步转变以及相关进程，正促使北非国家积极发展其国内市场。在这种背景下，不仅要关注大型国有工业的发展，还应关注私营初创企业领域，在乌克兰冲突期间，俄罗斯的私营初创企业蓬勃发展，现在北非国家的这一领域也开始发展。在制裁下发展企业的经验，从小型企业到中型和大型公司，将有助于在公共和私营部门开展互利合作。

另一个重要但遗憾的是发展不足的领域是人力资本。这包括在俄罗斯教育机构对专业人员进行多阶段培训，以及增加双边和多边国家间研发工作小组的数量。

结论

20 世纪 90 年代末，中东和北非国家的未来与经济、政治改革以及旨在强化自身特性的进程紧密相连。66 然而，由于 “阿拉伯之春”、新冠疫情、气候变化和乌克兰危机等全球性事件，北非地区在 21 世纪初发展停滞。如今，由于快速变化的地缘政治进程，该地区国家面临着经济、政治和金融等诸多问题。其中一些国家，尤其是阿尔及利亚、突尼斯和摩洛哥，在运用反危机机制减轻大多数外部挑战带来的负面影响方面取得了一定进展。北非国家必须在自身所需的经济、制度和政治改革，以及国际金融机构施加的强大压力之间谋求平衡。国际金融机构通过运用金融手段迫使北非国家按照相关计划行事，这些计划甚至要求改变其政治和经济进程的结构。

据非洲开发银行称，2024 年北非国家的经济增长率有望达到 4.4%。在 2023 年的一份报告中，67 非洲开发银行建议各国政府协调财政政策，以维持该地区经济的相对稳定。与此同时，该地区国家需要应对高通胀问题（2023 年通胀率高达 14% ），68 并通过有针对性的公共财政支持来扶持中小企业和弱势群体。

粮食安全仍然是该地区最大的问题之一。私营部门、金融机构（开发银行）和政府对绿色经济领域（即农业和清洁能源）的投资依然较低。这既归因于短期内投资难以收回的高风险，也与这些行业整体盈利能力较低有关。

尽管该地区存在诸多问题，但从金融和经济角度来看，北非国家对亚洲企业极具吸引力。西方投资者撤离这些国家的市场后，亚洲企业开始积极投资创新项目，包括联合项目，并借助金融手段逐渐加强对各经济领域的掌控。

在新的地缘政治格局下，俄罗斯寻求加强与北非国家的合作，包括推动这些国家融入金砖国家。双方的经济合作涵盖广泛领域，从农业、能源到高科技和金融科技行业。

与该地区国家开展金融合作，对双边经济关系的发展大有可为。俄罗斯的银行技术有望成为俄罗斯与北非国家互利合作的重要驱动力。俄罗斯和伊朗支付系统整合的经验可以推广到北非国家，这不仅有助于推动金融合作，还能促进在众多其他领域的互动。尤其重要的是，要推动在俄罗斯于该地区的主要合作伙伴之间，建立统一的支付系统。

支持专注于数字技术（包括信息技术解决方案）和农业技术的初创企业和中型企业的发展也至关重要。金融创新数字化领域的合作同样关键，因为这似乎是俄罗斯与北非国家经济合作中最具潜力的领域之一。

Introduction

North Africa¹ is the fastest growing region both in Africa and in the Arab world, with a combined GDP that grew 4.2% in 2023, compared to 1.6% for the Middle East and 3.2% for Africa. Experts predict that the markets of these countries will increase by approximately 4% in 2024, with Egypt and Morocco leading this growth.² However, countries in the region face numerous challenges related to climate change, a sharp reduction in grain supplies caused by the situation in Ukraine, and serious macroeconomic problems at the domestic level, including high inflation, a weakened foreign exchange base and dwindling gold and foreign exchange reserves of its central banks. Despite this, the countries of the region remain attractive for foreign direct investment (FDI) from the European Union. China is also pursuing an active economic policy in North Africa. The most promising market is the development of innovative technology, a part of which Russia, as a leader in information security and fintech solutions, may try to occupy.

Economic Problems Facing North African States: Risks and Challenges

According to a report by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa,³ North Africa faced a number of challenges in 2022, including unfavorable weather conditions that negatively impacted major crop yields and increased interest rates on external loans. In turn, this has led to a drop in exports of basic goods due to a decrease in foreign exchange earnings. In 2023, these problems were compounded by the adverse effects of the conflict in Ukraine.

Oil-producing countries in North Africa, for which oil exports are the main—if not the only—economic sector that brings money into the state treasury, have gone against the trend to make a small short-term profit from the increase in oil prices on the global market.

However, this small gain is almost completely offset by the even greater negative trends taking place in the region: the reliance on international financial institutions and limited financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, and the sovereign wealth funds of the Persian Gulf countries. One such tranche was provided to help pay for imported wheat, supplies of which fell by 80%.⁴ Of course, the conflict in Ukraine has, to one degree or another, affected the economies of all the countries in the region, but it would be wrong to say that all the problems currently facing North African states started to manifest only after the events of February 24, 2022. Egyptian authorities point to the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine as the main culprits for their economic problems, although even before these developments the size of the country's foreign debt was greater than it had ever been, at 168 billion. The situation in Egypt has yet to be changed.⁵ On top of this, the Egyptian currency is crashing, and the country is experiencing a foreign currency crisis. The current situation can be traced back to the “reformist” actions of the Egyptian government following the events of the Arab Spring. The full-blown public crisis in Tunisia that began after the 2011 revolution, continued through the pandemic, and has worsened in recent years due to drought and falling yields of key crops. The country's economy is recovering, but very slowly. According to a World Bank report,⁷ Tunisia's GDP grew just 1.2% in the first half of 2023, and is expected to increase by a meagre 3% in 2024.⁸ These figures were effectively reiterated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which has predicted a growth of 1.9% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. Just like with Egypt, the IMF and the European Bank strongly encouraged the Tunisian government to accept their financial assistance package of 1 billion, saying nothing about the conditions for receiving this assistance and the reforms the country would need to make to justify it. But the country's leadership decided to temporarily stop accepting aid packages from international institutions, suggesting that it is pursuing an extremely cautious financial policy on this matter, despite the many socioeconomic problems that such aid could help solve.

In this context, it can be assumed that Tunisia expects financial assistance from its neighbours, such as Algeria, in the form of investments. However, Algeria is in need of economic reforms itself. The Algerian economy requires major diversification, as the country's oil and gas sector accounts for approximately 35% of its GDP, 60% of its budget revenues, and over 95% of its export earnings.¹¹ The country faces economic problems due to the volatility of hydrogen prices, the regulation of which is directly or indirectly influenced by OPEC+. However, this has been offset by increasing natural gas production by almost 6%.

The socioeconomic situation in the Kingdom of Morocco is relatively stable. It too faces the same problems as the other countries in the region, but to a lesser extent, and their negative impact on the economy is less pronounced thanks to the well-thought-out policies of the country's leadership.

Libya's economy is demonstrating resilience despite its low and uneven economic growth. According to the World Bank, the Libyan economy contracted by 1.2% in 2022, due mostly to the drop in oil production. The unemployment rate in the country continues to be high, at 19.6%, with more than 85% of the working population being employed either in the public sector, or in the grey economy. Despite the significant challenges, Libya does have a rather clear path to economic recovery and the potential to diversify it given its abundant financial resources.¹³

The Libyan economy relies heavily on oil and gas, which account for 97% of the country's exports, over 90% of government revenues, and 68% of the GDP. In 2023, as the country was recovering from the 2022 recession, GDP grew by 12.6% on the back of stable oil production made possible by the improved security situation in the country. The growth in demand continued to be driven by private consumption and exports. Inflation fell to 2.4% in 2023, supported by the development of domestic supply chains. Between 2004 and 2022, the industrial sector, propped up by the oil and gas industry, accounted for approximately 61.7% of the country's GDP, by far outpacing manufacturing (4% of GDP) and agriculture (just 2.8% of GDP).¹⁴

Libya has the largest oil and gas reserves in Africa and its budget thus depends almost entirely on oil prices, which are in turn affected by the lack of political stability. In addition to this, the informal sector of the economy is expanding in the south of the country, via human trafficking, in addition to weapons, and narcotics. The road to development in the country is littered with such obstacles as both unilateral and the multilateral sanctions have been introduced in 2011.

The Agricultural Sector and Food Security

Another challenge facing North African countries is food security, as they depend on grain imports.¹⁵ The frequent droughts over the past decade, as well as low rainfall, have hit agricultural production in Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt.¹⁶ The growth rates of North African state economies are slowing down. As a result, inflation processes are gaining momentum, the budget deficit is widening, household income is falling, and the foreign currency base for paying for imports and maintaining the exchange rate of the national currency is being decimated. Those countries that rely on oil for a part of their income may be less vulnerable. However, the critical shortage and soaring prices for basic food are causing discontent among large portions of the population, which has not forgotten the events of the Arab Spring.

Rising prices for nitrogen fertilizers, which negatively impacted the region's economy, was a direct result of the increased cost of natural gas and coal used in their production. There are only a handful of global suppliers of nitrogen fertilizers. The largest exporters in 2023 were Russia, China, Canada, the United States, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia, which together accounted for 51.6% and 53.3% of global fertilizer exports in 2022 and 2023, respectively.¹⁷ Given the current crisis in the fertilizer marker, these suppliers will vie for leadership in the markets of North Africa. To further ignite this competition, Chinese companies are already pursuing a stricter pricing policy and have cut exports of urea and phosphates significantly in late 2023.¹⁸

Meanwhile, Saudi companies are promoting their products in countries by providing financial support to countries in need, which is done through large government funds. It is no coincidence that, for roughly forty years, Saudi Arabia was among the world's leading providers of government aid, far outstripping Western countries in terms of the proportion of GDP that goes into these activities.¹⁹

In the context of the uneasy geopolitical and economic situation, Western European countries, as well as the Gulf States, and China are already carrying out economic activities in North Africa, aiming to obtain short-term financial gains and expand production.

Maintaining food security in the region is still the most important goal for North African countries. The only way to achieve it is through significant investment in the development and cultivation of improved varieties of staple crops, the stimulation of research in genetic engineering, and improved water and soil management strategies.

The region needs to aim for sustainable development in the water-energy-food nexus through the implementation of a risk-based approach in national development strategies.

Foreign Direct Investment and the Use of Innovative Technologies: Prospects for North Africa

The economies of North African countries, which have significant reserves of crude oil, can traditionally be divided into “prosperous” (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria) and “backward” (for example, Libya) states. Even so, all these countries require foreign direct investment. They also face pressure to diversify their economies so that they are not as dependent on energy and agriculture, and focus on introducing innovative technologies. Moreover, the “prosperous” countries of North Africa are quickly becoming an attractive platform for the development of start-ups and financial technologies. The fact that most Arab countries have joined the Fourth Industrial Revolution is certainly a boon when it comes to introducing innovative technologies. Tunisia and Morocco scored higher than some wealthy Gulf states on the World Intellectual Property Organization's 2022 Global Innovation Index (a metric for measuring progress in innovation).²⁰

Despite the positive indicators and the desire of the region's countries to modernize their national economies, they are still understanding on R&D—less than 1% of GDP (for comparison, the United States spends 3.5% of its GDP on R&D, while the EU countries spend an average of 2.5%).²¹ Governments are, of course, doing what they can to support innovation and the start-up sector. The practical experience of Arab countries, Lebanon in particular,²² shows that the private sector of start-up development can be a driver of innovation, especially in financial technologies. However, this sector faces all kinds of obstacles in North Africa, including red tape, a labor shortage, the under-utilization of industrial potential in IT technologies, a thriving shadow economy, stunted modernization, and an unstable financial sector. At the state level, leaders are attempting to encourage the development of start-ups by creating a special regulatory framework, implementing projects, and establishing new government ministries and departments.

The lack of funding opportunities is also proving to be a challenge when it comes to promoting start-ups in the region. While FDI is primarily directed at large public or private projects with a significant share of state capital, start-ups—which are more flexible and resilient to economic challenges—occupy those niches and sectors that the state does not touch. Table 1 shows the volume of FDI in the countries of North Africa, as well as where investments come from.

Source: Compiled by the author, based on materials from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD),²³ the International Trade Administration (ITA),²⁴ and the U.S. Department of State,²⁵ and using the author's calculations based on data from Lloyds Bank,²⁶ the Department for Business and Trade,²⁷ CEIC,²⁸ the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative,²⁹ Middle East Economy,³⁰ Egypt Independent,³¹ Arabian Gulf Business Insight,³² the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development,³³ and Property Finder³⁴

Despite the problems facing the agricultural sector in North African states, FDI is either non-existent or miniscule compared to other sectors of the economy. Agriculture, as well as renewable energy sources and access to drinking water, are seen as the main areas that start-ups in the region are developing. For example, in 2022, the Moroccan government and the World Bank launched the AgriTech-4Morocco Innovation Challenge to encourage innovation in clean, renewable energy, while in Tunisia, Agricultural Development Group (GDA) Sidi Amor is promoting a model for sustainable rural development.

Where exactly investments go depends primarily on the investing country. What is clear, though, is that European companies are “transferring” industrial production to less expensive areas. Additionally, it is important to note that the numerous environmental programmes that are being actively promoted in Western European countries do not always have a positive impact on the development of individual industries.

Many European industrial companies have had to either liquidate their businesses or relocate them to the United States or China. This “industrial migration” can be put down to a number of factors, most notably the rising prices for fuel and mineral resources imported from Russia. Relocating to North Africa is an attractive proposition for Western European companies, as it would allow them to purchase energy resources from Russia at lower prices. Obstacles to this include a weak legal framework for investment, significant red tape, and safety concerns.

Also worth noting is China's vested interest in the region: representatives of Huawei have announced that the company will be investing 430 million in North African countries to create a cloud computing infrastructure, as well as to provide support to local software providers and training IT specialists.³⁵ In 2023, Chinese entrepreneurs opened the 19.3-billion Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt factory in Morocco to produce battery components for electric cars. North Africa accounts for 8.7% of China's global investments.³⁶

The Impact of International Financial Institutions on North African State Economies

International financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank have either provided or expressed a willingness to provide financial support to North African countries in precarious financial situations. These organizations have a direct influence on the economic policies not only of the recipient countries, but also of the entire region. Their activities shape development trajectories and economic links in the region, focusing on macroeconomic aspects and social justice, and recommending political changes. While their policies, implemented under the guise of various development programmes, brought mixed results, they nevertheless helped create a favourable situation for themselves in the region. Guided by their own financial interests, creditor countries first want to recover the money they have handed out in the form of loans and achieve their own economic and foreign policy goals, rather than on solving the problems of the recipient country. It would not be an exaggeration to state that Western creditor countries use their political influence to regulate the activities of international financial organizations, including in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). They collect and analyse information on the effectiveness of the programmes they implement in the countries of the region, earning exorbitant profits in the long term.

However, attitudes towards foreign financing vary significantly among MENA countries.

Egypt leads in terms of attracting international financial aid and the number of creditor countries. Since 2013, it has received 8 billion in assistance from the IMF, 8.1 billion from the EU,³⁷ 23 billion from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait,³⁸ and 35 billion from the ADQ sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi.³⁹

Morocco is in no hurry to borrow externally. Analysts predict that the economy will continue to grow at a rate of 3.6%⁴⁰ in the period 2024-2027 thanks to the expected increase in tourism revenues and domestic demand and lower inflation. The Tunisian economy is in a state of crisis. With a public debt of 80% of GDP the country depends on loans from North African banks and foreign financial institutions. Even so, the authorities continue to reject loan offers from the IMF, despite the difficulties financing the economy.⁴¹ Analysts fear that Tunisia could default on its foreign debt at any moment, arguing that the country could become a “North African Lebanon” without outside financial assistance.

The financial sector in many countries in the region has started to transform in response to both internal and external economic and political changes. Over the past decade, most major Western lenders, including UK and French banks (Barclays, Scotiabank, BNP Paribas and Societe Generale), have pulled out of North Africa. This has opened the door for local banks, primarily those in Morocco and Egypt, to grow in these countries and establish themselves as market leaders. The departure of Western European banks was precipitated by the need for these states to develop their own independent financial markets and form their own competitive financial environment, which would include Islamic banks. Although the National Bank of Egypt, as well as Banque Misr and Attijariwafa, are now among the 30 largest banks in the MENA region in terms of assets,⁴³ Western companies are not about to give up the resource-rich North African markets, including through international financial institutions.

Six of Africa's top ten banks have at least one North African country as a founding member.⁴⁴ These banks have continued to operate stably, despite strong exchange rate volatility, inflation, and falling investment and export volumes in key agricultural sectors of the economy.

One area that has become attractive for investment in the countries of North Africa is climate finance. Morocco has been hit by drought and an earthquake, Libya has lost thousands of people to deadly floods and a dam failure, and Algeria has been battling wildfires. In this context, financing projects that are aimed at preventing or mitigating climate change could turn into a trend in investment programmes in North Africa. Natural disasters caused by climate change affect the economic growth of countries, directly or indirectly undermining various economic aspects such as employment, inflation, living standards, and official fiscal policies.

The challenges of climate change impact the insurance and financial capabilities of countries and the sustainability of the financial system as a whole.⁴⁵ It is estimated that 25.7 billion is required annually to carry out the programmes envisioned by the FAO Action Plan 2022-2025 for the Implementation of the FAO Strategy on Climate Change. Meanwhile, the total amount invested in climate change in North Africa in 2023 amounted to 5.9 billion, or just 23% of the required funds. Up to 80% of climate finance for these programmes comes from foreign investors, with the public sector in North African countries providing just 18%.⁴⁶

Many economic sectors in the region, such as solar and wind energy production and agriculture, offer ample opportunities for private investment. What is more, the agricultural sector is still important as an employer and has a significant share in the GDP of all North African countries.

Areas of Economic Cooperation between Russia and North African Countries

Russia's interaction with North African states can be described as “wave-like.” For the most part, Moscow has maintained extremely positive relations with the region, while at the same time gradually distancing itself from the countries economically and politically. Russia is trying to build a new kind of relations in a changing geopolitical and economic space by holding various forums and summits, including the Russia-Africa Summit and the various BRICS events.

Russia's cooperation with North African countries is greatly aided by BRICS and the significant potential it has. The construction of a new architecture of financial, economic, and political corridors within BRICS will allow Russia, at a minimal financial cost, to develop its cooperation with countries in the most promising regions in the form of an equal partnership. In the context of the mounting sanctions pressure, interaction with North African countries is not just relevant, it is vital for Russia.

North African countries are also striving not only to build constructive relations with Moscow, but also to claim a place for themselves in the new world system, building equal relations with other countries without a hint of “colonialist dependence.” This can be seen in the case of Egypt, a newly minted BRICS member, as well as in the case of Algeria and Morocco, candidate states for membership in the association. Developing cooperation within BRICS speaks to the interest that North African countries in deepening relations with China and Russia.⁴⁷ However, it is too soon to draw any conclusions about this cooperation from an economic standpoint.

Russian companies currently interact with the region's countries in the following sectors: agriculture, education, oil refining and production, metallurgy, the chemical and food industries, nuclear energy, and space programmes. Russian companies Alrosa, LUKOIL, Renova, Rusal, Rosatom, Rosneft, and Nordgold are currently implementing economic projects in Africa.⁴⁸ The Memorandum of Understanding between the Association of Banks of Russia and West African Bankers Association signed in 2023 provides for the implementation of several programmes to support cooperation in the financial sector between Russia and African countries,⁴⁹ but cooperation with this region has even greater potential for development.

According to the Valdai Club, trade between Russia and the countries of Africa increased by 1.5 times from 2011 to 2021, from 12.2 billion to 17.7 billion.⁵⁰ In 2023, trade turnover between Russia and Africa reached 24.5 billion, up 37% from 2022. In the first eight months of 2024, trade turnover increased by 18.5% year-on-year to 18.6 billion.⁵¹ Grain exports are particularly important, as almost 30% of grain supplies to Africa come from Russia.⁵² Russia's leading trading partners in Africa are all in the north of the continent, specifically Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco, which together account for approximately 70% of Russia's trade volume with Africa.⁵³ Almost 90% of Russia's exports to Africa in 2023 were oil, oil products, wheat, metals, and metallurgical products. Imports from Africa were mostly made up of agricultural products such as fruits, nuts, cocoa, and coffee.⁵⁴

The North African region has demonstrated great potential to drive the fintech industry across Africa. According to a report by BDO South Africa,⁵⁵ Egypt accounts for 9.6% of new fintech start-ups in all of Africa. The country is already implementing 65 projects in this field, ahead of Tunisia (six projects) and Morocco (four projects). Digital payments and mobile wallets are considered key areas of development for the region's financial industry. In Russia, the use of the Faster Payments System is actively growing, averaging seven transactions per person per month—according to 2023 data—which is four times higher than the figures for G7 countries, and twice the figure for the G20.⁵⁶ These numbers suggest that there is potential to develop competitive payment systems within the country, and that opportunities are opening up to move into international markets in North Africa, especially within the framework of BRICS.

Regarding the development of cooperation in the financial sector, the successful integration of the Russian (Mir) and Iranian (Shetab) payment systems, despite the sanctions pressure on both countries from the collective West, is worth noting. One project that could act as a driver in relations between the Russian Federation and North African countries in the financial sector is the introduction of a single settlement system. This is just one of the questions that are being discussed by Russia and Egypt within the framework of BRICS, alongside the possibility of switching to mutual settlements in national currencies.

Russian banking technologies could jolt mutually beneficially cooperation between Russia and North African countries. Cooperation with Egypt is particularly promising, since the market for innovative products in this country is supported at the state level. The government is committed to the digitalization of financial innovations as a mechanism to combat the growing shadow economy.⁵⁷ Also worth mentioning is the possibility of establishing contacts with the Islamic banking world. A draft law establishing an experimental legal regime for partnership (Islamic) financing activities has already been adopted.⁵⁸ While the Islamic banking market in North Africa is not as well developed as in Persian Gulf countries or Iran, there is a potential to develop this industry, including as part of the interaction between the region's countries and Russia. In 2024, the Russian agro-industrial complex expects to increase the export of halal products to North African countries to 400 million, and negotiations on the issue have already been completed.⁵⁹ It would be a good idea to pay for these products through financial intermediaries, perhaps even in national currencies. This project will also give additional impetus to the development of partner banking in Russia. FDI inflows to African countries in 2022 amounted to 45 billion, which is broadly in line with the average of previous years. However, in 2021, these countries managed to attract 80 billion in FDI, of which 42 billion went to South Africa.⁶⁰ The main FDI flows to Africa come primarily from European countries—in 2022, investments from the United Kingdom, France, the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany totalled 212 billion, compared to 44 billion from China.

The volume of inward foreign direct investment stock from Northern African countries to Russia in 2022 was relatively small. Meanwhile, Russian FDI in the countries of North Africa reached to 63.81 million, four times the amount of FDI from European countries, which stood at 15.84 million.⁶² Furthermore, according to an official representative of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Russian businesses are interested in investing in African countries, and the ministry is working on signing agreements with several African countries on the promotion and mutual protection of investments. Six such agreements had been concluded by November 2024—with Angola, Egypt, Zimbabwe, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, and South Africa, with another two (with Congo and Morocco) at the advanced stages of negotiations.⁶³

In addition, the member states of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) receive investments from several MENA countries. Moreover, mutual investments of all the possible areas of cooperation, finance is the most promising. However, given the current conditions, Russia is finding it hard to compete with the likes of China and the countries of Southeast Asia, for example, in the fight for the North African IT market.

When implementing projects with North African countries, Russia will likely have to deal with the reluctance of many Western countries to leave profitable African markets, which could complicate the development of cooperation. For instance, the dependence of the region’s countries on loans from international financial organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank may influence their political decisions.

However, the barriers to bilateral relations in the banking sector are gradually being overcome. In the middle of 2023, for example, Russia and Algeria signed the Declaration on Deepening Cooperation, which will ensure the development of direct contacts between the financial institutions of the two countries and encourage the transition to inter-state settlements in national currencies.65

Interaction between the countries is based on cooperation in the military-technical sphere (first established in Soviet times), energy and space. However, the gradual transition to a multipolar world order and the associated processes are forcing North African states to aggressively develop their domestic markets. In this context, it would be a good idea to pay attention not only to the development of large state-owned industries, but also to the private start-up sector, which has flourished in Russia during the conflict in Ukraine and is now starting to develop in North African countries. The experience gained developing businesses under sanctions, from small firms to medium and large companies, will come in handy when it comes to developing mutually beneficial cooperation in both the public and private sectors.

Another important but, unfortunately, underdeveloped area is human capital. This includes the multi-stage training of specialists in Russian educational institutions, as well as an increase in the number of bilateral and multilateral intercountry working groups on R&D.

Conclusion

In the late 1990s, the future of MENA countries was tied to economic and political reforms, as well as to the emergence of processes aimed at strengthening their identities.66 However, progress in North Africa stalled in the early 21st century as a result of global events such as the Arab Spring, the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, and the Ukrainian crisis. Today, the region’s countries are faced with economic, political, and financial problems due to rapidly changing geopolitical processes. Some of these countries, most notably Algeria, Tunisia, and Morocco, have made some progress in terms of using anti-crisis mechanisms to mitigate the negative consequences of most external challenges. North African countries must navigate between the economic, institutional, and political reform they need, and the strong pressure being put on them by international financial institutions. The latter exert pressure on North African states by compelling them, through the use of financial levers, to act in line with programmes that include changing the very structure of political and economic processes.

According to the African Development Bank, economic growth in the countries of North Africa is set to reach 4.4% in 2024. In a 2023 report,67 the African Development Bank recommended that governments coordinate their fiscal policies to keep the region’s economies on a relatively stable footing. At the same time, the region’s countries need to combat high inflation, which stood at 14% in 2023,68 and support SMEs and vulnerable segments of the population through targeted public financial support.

Food security continues to be one of the biggest problems in the region. Investments from the private sector, financial institutions (development banks), and governments in green sectors of the economy (namely, agriculture and clean energy) remain low. This can be put down to the high risks of not recouping the money invested in the short term, as well as to the low profitability of these sectors as a whole.

Despite the problems in the region, the countries of North Africa are very appealing for Asian companies from a financial and economic point of view. After Western investors left the markets of these countries, Asian companies started to actively invest in innovative projects, including joint projects, gradually exerting control over economic sectors with the help of financial levers.

In the new geopolitical landscape, Russia is seeking to strengthen cooperation with North African countries, including through the integration of these countries into BRICS. Economic interaction covers a broad range of industries, from agriculture and energy to the hi-tech sector and fintech.

Financial cooperation with the countries of the region has much promise for the development of bilateral economic relations. Russian banking technologies can become an important driver of mutually beneficial cooperation between Russia and the countries of North Africa. The experience of integrating the payment systems of Russia and Iran can be extended to the countries of North Africa, which could contribute to the development of financial cooperation, as well as interaction in numerous other areas. It is particularly important to promote the development of a unified payment system among Russia’s key partners in the region.

It is important to support the development of start-ups and medium-sized businesses that focus on digital technologies, including IT solutions, and agricultural technologies. Cooperation in the digitalization of financial innovations is also key, as it appears to be among the most promising areas of economic cooperation between Russia and North African countries.

来源：非常道