【新刊速递】《生存》(Survival)， Vol. 67， No. 1， 2025

摘要：《生存：全球政治与战略》（Survival），由英国国际战略研究所（IISS）定期出版的双月刊杂志，发表有独创见解的文章，刊载重要文件及讲话全文以及书刊评论，分析全球政治和战略形势。

期刊简介

《生存：全球政治与战略》（Survival），由英国国际战略研究所（IISS）定期出版的双月刊杂志，发表有独创见解的文章，刊载重要文件及讲话全文以及书刊评论，分析全球政治和战略形势。

本期目录

1 乌克兰的战争或和平：美国的行动与欧洲的选择

War or Peace in Ukraine: US Moves and European Choices

2 美国孤立主义与特朗普回潮之谜

American Isolationisms and the Riddle of Trump Redux

3 随着阿萨德的倒台，叙利亚能否崛起？

With the Fall of Assad, Can Syria Rise?

4 欧洲的盾牌：重振欧洲防务共同体

A Shield for Europe: Reviving the European Defence Community

5 北约新成员国和波罗的海战略平衡

NATO’s New Members and the Baltic Strategic Balance

6 金融、战略和欧洲自主

finance, Strategy and European Autonomy

7 论坛：欧洲核威慑与唐纳德·特朗普

Forum: European Nuclear Deterrence and Donald Trump

内容摘要

乌克兰的战争或和平：美国的行动与欧洲的选择

题目：War or Peace in Ukraine: US Moves and European Choices

作者：François Heisbourg，国际战略研究所欧洲高级顾问。

摘要：如果唐纳德·特朗普政府切断新的援助请求，乌克兰可能将难以应对战争。俄罗斯对乌克兰的军事胜利将导致北约现有成员国承担的成本大幅增加，以阻止莫斯科打算扭转苏联解体的战略影响。即使乌克兰由于特朗普强加的协议而缩小领土，也可能结束二战后遏制欧洲国家合法领土单方面被吞并的成功努力，并可能改变俄罗斯对北大西洋公约第 5 条在实践中含义的判断。如果美国也像特朗普曾多次暗示的那样大幅撤出欧洲，那么欧洲人将不得不承担远超过 GDP 3% 的国防成本，以弥补美国能力的缺位。欧洲或许并不具备应对这些挑战所需的战略重点和统一目标。

Ukraine is unlikely to be able to cope on the battlefield if Donald Trump’s administration cuts off new requests for aid. A Russian military victory against Ukraine would entail massive increases in the burden borne by NATO’s current members to preclude Moscow’s intended reversal of the strategic effects of the break-up of the Soviet Union. Even a Ukraine territorially diminished by way of a deal imposed by Trump would likely end successful post-Second World War efforts to counter the unilateral annexation of a European state’s legal territory and potentially change Russia’s assessment of what Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty means in practice. If the United States also substantially withdrew from Europe, as Trump has at times suggested it could, the Europeans would have to incur defence costs far exceeding 3% of GDP to make up for the unavailable US capabilities. Europe may not have the strategic focus and unity of purpose necessary to meet these challenges.

美国孤立主义与特朗普回潮之谜

题目：American Isolationisms and the Riddle of Trump Redux

作者：John L. Harper，约翰霍普金斯大学 SAIS 欧洲美国外交政策名誉教授。

摘要：美利坚共和国早期的政治斗争在对外关系领域产生了几个有时重叠的思想流派：保守和自由国际主义;以及保守和自由孤立主义。很少有美国思想家或政治家称自己为“孤立主义者”，或真正主张美国完全退出世界事务。这包括唐纳德·特朗普，他只是表现得好像自己的才能可以为战略问题带来更好的解决方案，但他从未质疑过维持美国全球主导地位的目标，并且把自己包围在传统的强硬派周围。特朗普的回归确实证实了美国选民对更克制外交政策的偏好，但特朗普的外交政策将在多大程度上反映其支持者的不干涉倾向仍不清晰。特朗普回潮的未解之谜，在于他的政治纲领和个人性格中好战与和平因素的某种结合，最终会在其对外政策中体现出来。

The political struggles of the early years of the American republic gave rise to several, at times overlapping, strands of thought in the realm of foreign relations: conservative and liberal internationalism; and conservative and liberal isolationism. Few American thinkers or politicians have ever called themselves ‘isolationists’ or really wanted to withdraw America entirely from the world. That includes Donald Trump, who has merely acted as though his talents would allow him to impose better solutions to strategic problems, has never questioned the goal of maintaining US global primacy, and has surrounded himself with conventional hardliners. Trump’s return does confirm the US electorate’s preference for a foreign policy of greater restraint, but to what degree Trump’s foreign policy will reflect his supporters’ non-interventionist sentiments remains unclear. The unanswered riddle of Trump redux seems to be what combination of the belligerent and the pacific in his political programme and personal make-up will find expression in his foreign policy.

随着阿萨德的倒台，叙利亚能否崛起？

题目：With the Fall of Assad, Can Syria Rise?

作者：Natasha Hall，战略与国际研究中心中东项目的高级研究员。

摘要：2024 年 11 月 27 日，由沙姆解放组织领导的叙利亚叛军从叙利亚孤立的西北部飞地突围，发动攻势，在 11 天内推翻了长达 54 年的阿萨德王朝。虽然叛军在推翻残暴的独裁者巴沙尔·阿萨德方面表现出色，但外国支持者的戏剧性消失决定了他的命运。他们的离开原因部分是由于地区和国际秩序的变化，而他的倒台预示着中东及其他地区的新时代。特别是，叙利亚的过渡将影响并受七个主要利益相关者的影响——伊朗、以色列、海湾国家、土耳其、叙利亚民主力量领导的库尔德人、俄罗斯和美国——每个利益相关者都做出了独特且可能相互冲突的意识形态、地缘政治和经济计算。

On 27 November 2024, Syrian rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham broke out of Syria’s isolated northwestern enclave, launching an offensive that felled the 54-year Assad dynasty in 11 days. While the rebels performed remarkably in overthrowing a brutal dictator, Bashar al-Assad, the dramatic disappearance of foreign backers sealed his fate. Their departure resulted in part from changes in the regional and international order, and his fall heralds a new era in the Middle East and beyond. In particular, Syria’s transition will affect and be affected by seven main stakeholders – Iran, Israel, the Gulf states, Turkiye, the Syrian Democratic Forces-led Kurds, Russia and the United States – each making distinct and potentially conflicting ideological, geopolitical and economic calculations.

欧洲的盾牌：重振欧洲防务共同体

题目：A Shield for Europe: Reviving the European Defence Community

作者：Federico Fabbrini，都柏林城市大学欧洲法教授、都柏林欧洲法研究所创始主任。

摘要：唐纳德·特朗普再次当选美国总统对欧洲构成了前所未有的安全挑战，欧洲的安全一直依赖北约。本文提出，欧洲可以通过恢复欧洲防务共同体（EDC）来保障自身的国防，该组织由欧盟六个创始成员国于 1952 年成立，旨在保护欧洲免受俄罗斯的威胁。EDC 在 1953-54 年由四个国家批准的条约中正式确定。因此，EDC 在法律上有可能在今天随着两个缺失的成员国（意大利和法国）的批准而生效。这种加强欧洲防务一体化的方法将优于所有现有的替代方案，尤其是因为它更容易推行。

The re-election of Donald Trump as US president poses an unprecedented security challenge for Europe, which has been dependent on NATO for its security. This article proposes that Europe could take ownership of its own defence by reviving the European Defence Community (EDC), an organisation established in 1952 by the six founding member states of the European Union to shield Europe from the Russian threat. The EDC was formalised in a treaty that was ratified by four countries in 1953–54. Therefore, it would be legally possible for the EDC to enter into force today with the ratification of the two missing member states (Italy and France). This method of strengthening defence integration in Europe would be superior to all existing alternatives, not least because it would be easier to pursue.

北约新成员国和波罗的海战略平衡

题目：NATO’s New Members and the Baltic Strategic Balance

作者：Victor Duenow，美国海军司令和美国海军研究生院博士生。

摘要：芬兰和瑞典加入北约，终结了它们的中立状态，同时，俄罗斯在黑海的反介入/区域拒止（A2/AD）能力表现不佳，暴露了其 A2/AD 体系中的重大缺陷，这使得北约在波罗的海处于有利地位，并使其能够部署据称在波罗的海最具战斗力的态势。但波罗的海的狭小和复杂特性意味着北约和俄罗斯都将继续面临重大挑战。也就是说，瑞典和芬兰提供的扩大准入削弱了俄罗斯拒绝北约使用波罗的海的能力，而扩容后得北约扩大了其对俄罗斯的封锁和海上拒止范围。与此同时，北约扩张带来的北约有效区域化，也带来了新的、相当大的规划挑战。尽管北约似乎占了上风，但它在波罗的海不会轻而易举地实现优势。

The accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, ending their neutrality, and the lacklustre performance of Russia’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) assets in the Black Sea, exposing significant gaps in its A2/AD architecture, have afforded NATO an advantageous position in the Baltic Sea and allowed it to assume supposedly the most capable posture in the Baltic. But the confined and complex character of the Baltic means that both NATO and Russia will continue to face significant challenges. That said, the expanded access that Sweden and Finland provide diminishes Russia’s capacity to deny NATO use of the Baltic Sea, while an expanded NATO enlarges its scope for blockade and sea denial vis-à-vis Russia. At the same time, the effective regionalisation of NATO that expansion has brought has introduced new and considerable planning challenges. Though the Alliance appears to have the upper hand, it is not going to have a cakewalk in the Baltic.

金融、战略和欧洲自主

题目：Finance, Strategy and European Autonomy

作者：Elmar Hellendoorn，大西洋理事会地缘经济学中心高级研究员以及公共和私营部门顾问。

摘要：本文从战略角度探讨了影响欧洲和西方的三个主要金融趋势：金融化、美元依赖和负债。欧洲的战略自主和经济安全取决于金融动态。金融化削弱了欧洲的工业、基础设施和社会韧性，而美国金融在欧洲的影响力则得到了加强。欧盟仍然高度依赖美元，而其他地方正在积极追求去美元化。当然，美元也面临挑战，但美国的债务似乎更令人担忧，尤其是对欧洲安全而言，这取决于美国为其在欧洲和亚洲的军事参与提供资金的意愿和能力。分析人士和政策制定者通常分别处理金融和战略发展。两者都以复杂的方式相互作用，金融的逻辑塑造了地缘政治动态，而战略的逻辑影响了国际金融。只有从不断发展的地缘金融视角出发，才能真正理解金融市场与金融机构在当今战略与地缘政治中的重要性。

This article develops a strategic perspective on three key financial trends affecting Europe and the West: financialisation, dollar-dependence and indebtedness. European strategic autonomy and economic security depend on financial dynamics. Financialisation has weakened Europe’s industrial, infrastructural and societal resilience, while the influence of American finance in Europe has strengthened. The European Union remains highly dependent on the dollar, while de-dollarisation is being actively pursued elsewhere. Certainly, the US dollar faces challenges, but American indebtedness appears even more worrisome, not least for European security, which depends on the United States’ willingness and ability to finance its military engagement in both Europe and Asia.

Analysts and policymakers often approach financial and strategic developments separately. Both interact in complex ways, with the logic of finance shaping geopolitical dynamics, and the logic of strategy affecting international finance. The strategic and geopolitical importance of financial markets and institutions may only be correctly understood if they are considered from the evolving perspective of geofinance.

论坛：欧洲核威慑与唐纳德·特朗普

题目：Forum: European Nuclear Deterrence and Donald Trump

作者：Héloïse Fayet，安全研究中心研究员和法国国际关系研究所威慑和扩散研究项目负责人；Andrew Futter，莱斯特大学国际政治学教授；Ulrich Kühn，汉堡大学和平研究与安全政策研究所军备控制和新兴技术项目负责人；Łukasz Kulesa，皇家联合军种研究所扩散和核政策主任；Paul van Hooft，兰德欧洲公司研究负责人；Kristin Ven Bruusgaard，挪威情报学校主任。

摘要：虽然唐纳德·特朗普回归，但美国完全脱离欧洲并非不可避免。美国仍将在欧洲保有战略利益。目前尚不需要建立独立的欧洲核威慑力量。但显而易见的是，特朗普政府将贬低跨大西洋关系的价值，并将其战略重点转向印太地区。荷兰、北欧和波兰的分析人士同意英国、法国和德国同行的观点，即针对俄罗斯的威胁，加强欧洲的核威慑和常规威慑，需要柏林、伦敦和巴黎之间更高水平的协调，并与其他国家的首都进行更深入、更系统的磋商。欧洲需要投资于常规威慑资产并增加核武库。法国和英国可以与欧洲盟友分享更多关于其核能力和计划的信息，而巴黎应该放弃参与北约内部核审议的抗拒，加入核规划小组。联合演习也应进一步增强。欧洲还需要一个长期的政治战略来稳定与俄罗斯的关系。

Despite Donald Trump’s return, complete US disengagement from Europe is not inevitable. America will continue to have strategic interests in Europe. Building a separate European nuclear deterrent is not yet necessary. But it is clear that the Trump administration will devalue transatlantic relations and turn its strategic attention to the Indo-Pacific. Dutch, Nordic and Polish analysts agree with their British, French and German colleagues that firming up European nuclear and conventional deterrence, in particular vis-à-vis Russia, calls for better coordination between Berlin, London and Paris, and deeper and more systematic consultation with other capitals. Europe needs to invest in conventional deterrence assets and increase nuclear arsenals. France and Britain could share more information about their nuclear capabilities and plans with their European allies, and Paris should drop its aversion to participating in NATO’s internal nuclear deliberations and join the Nuclear Planning Group. Joint exercises could be enhanced. Europe also needs a long-term political strategy for stabilising its relationship with Russia.

译者：林志俊，国政学人编译员，延世大学国际学研究生院硕士研究生。

审校 | 赖永祯

排版 | 喻俊

本文源于《生存》(Survival), Vol. 67, No. 1, 2025，本文为公益分享，服务于科研教学，不代表本平台观点。如有疏漏，欢迎指正。