摘要：This year, the prices of once-expensive fruits such as durians, blueberries, and Shine Muscat grapes have significantly dropped ac
This year, the prices of once-expensive fruits such as durians, blueberries, and Shine Muscat grapes have significantly dropped across China. Over the past decade, the average price of premium fruits has plummeted by more than 60%.
The dramatic fall in prices of premium fruits is largely attributed to a surge in domestic fruit production, which has fundamentally shifted the market's supply-demand balance.
In the past, high-end fruits in China relied heavily on imports, leading to high costs due to long-distance transportation. In recent years, however, large-scale cultivation of premium fruit varieties has rapidly expanded across the country. Grown locally, these fruits are not only more affordable but also fresher and easier to transport, quickly becoming viable substitutes for imported options.
Public data shows that regions such as Yunnan and Shandong have achieved large-scale cultivation of blueberries. In 2024, China's total blueberry output reached 780,000 tons, a 197% increase compared to 2020. As a result, the price of domestic blueberries has dropped by 70% compared to their imported counterparts. As for durians, Hainan has also developed sizable plantations, with the current planting area covering over 40,000 mu (approx. 2,667 hectares), which is expected to expand to 100,000 mu in the next three to five years. The planting area for Shine Muscat grapes has skyrocketed from 100,000 mu in 2016 to 1.2 million mu by 2023.
Behind this production boom lies the advancement of agricultural modernization in China. In Yunnan, for instance, blueberries are cultivated using substrate growing technology and computer-controlled nutrient management systems, resulting in larger and sweeter berries. Hainan-grown durians have overcome key technological bottlenecks, now surpassing Thai varieties in sweetness, with production expected to exceed 2,000 tons by 2025.
Changes in the supply chains for imported fruits have also played a crucial role.
Previously, imported fruits incurred high logistics costs and long transit times, which inflated retail prices. Now, with major improvements in cross-border logistics efficiency, foreign fruits can enter the Chinese market more quickly and at lower costs, directly driving down the prices. For example, Chilean cherries shipped via the "Qiankai Port Express" sea route now enjoy shorter transit times and reduced spoilage rates, cutting wholesale prices at Nansha Port by 33% year-on-year. The launch of cross-border freight trains has further reduced durian transport time from ten days to just six.
Meanwhile, China's cold chain logistics network has become increasingly sophisticated. With logistics costs falling by 70%, fruit quality is better preserved, making prices even more competitive. In 2024, China's cold chain coverage for fresh produce rose to 68%, while spoilage rates dropped from 15% to under 5%. Intense competition among fresh produce e-commerce platforms has further driven down the prices of premium fruits. By sourcing directly from farms and trimming intermediary steps, these platforms have reduced costs by 20% to 30%.
Source: Lingnan On the Cloud
两大关键因素促成中国人“水果自由”
今年以来，榴莲、蓝莓、阳光玫瑰葡萄等高价水果，在中国的价格大幅回落。近十年间，国内高端水果均价降幅普遍超过60%。
高端水果降下身价，背后是中国水果产能大爆发，市场供求关系成功逆转。
以往，高端水果多依赖出口，路远成本高。然而，近年国内高端水果种植规模飞速扩张。中国农人在家门口种出来的高端水果，不但价格便宜，而且新鲜、运输方便，很快便成功形成国产替代。
公开数据显示，云南、山东等地实现蓝莓规模化种植。2024年全国产量达78万吨，较2020年增长197%，使得国产蓝莓价格较进口产品骤降70%。榴莲方面，海南也出现了规模化种植，目前种植面积已达4万亩，预计未来3～5年有望扩大至10万亩。国产阳光玫瑰葡萄种植面积从2016年的10万亩狂飙至2023年的120万亩。
国产水果巨大的产能背后，是中国农业现代化的进步。如云南蓝莓采用基质栽培技术，通过电脑调配营养液，产出的蓝莓果径更大、甜度更高。海南榴莲突破技术瓶颈，甜度超越泰国同类产品，预计2025年产量突破2000吨。
进口水果的供应链变革也是一大推手。
以前进口水果运输成本高、运输时间长，因此推高了价格。随着跨境物流效率的大幅提高，外国水果进口更便利地进入中国市场，直接拉低价格。智利车厘子通过“钱凯港快线”海运缩短运输时间周期，降低损耗率，南沙口岸批发价同比降33%。跨境班列的开通，压缩运输时间，把榴莲的运输时间从10天压缩到6天。
同时，我国的冷链物流技术和网络越来越完善，冷链物流成本下降70%，水果的品质有保障，价格自然更实惠。2024年，中国生鲜冷链覆盖率提升至68%，运输损耗率从15%降至5%以下。生鲜电商的激烈竞争，也直接把高端水果价格压了下来。如电商深入种植基地，缩短中间环节，成本降低20%～30%。
文丨图 记者 林翎
翻译丨杨钧雅
审校丨洪婷
来源：羊城派一点号