摘要：At the end of the year, the bond market set a record and entered the era of low interest rates. Trading financial institutions too

国债收益率大跳水，央行提示债市风险

Bond Yields Plunge;

Central Bank Highlights bond Market Risks

文 | 原牧楠 蒙田

年末债市创纪录，迈入低利率时代交易型金融机构率先抢跑，央行提醒金融机构注意防范金融风险。

At the end of the year, the bond market set a record and entered the era of low interest rates. Trading financial institutions took the lead in running, and the central bank reminded financial institutions to pay attention to preventing.

1 年末债市波澜不断

Turbulence Continues in the Bond

Market at Year-End

2024年12月下旬，债市波动相当剧烈。2024年12月18日，央行约谈了本轮债市行情中部分交易激进的金融机构并进行风险提示。随后10年期、30年期价格立马由涨转跌，国债收益率开始上升。12月24日，10年期国债收益率跌到1.69%，处于历史低位，债券市场行情持续火爆。

Into the second half of December, the bond market volatility is quit violent. On December 18, the central bank met with some financial institutions that had traded aggressively in the bond market and warned them of risks. Then 10 - and 30-year prices immediately turned from up to down, and Treasury yields began to rise. On December 24th the yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 1.69%, a record low, and the bond-market boom is set to continue.

年底的这轮债市风波，开始于2024年12月13日的中央经济工作会议。会议明示降准降息，定调将货币政策从“稳健”调整到“适度宽松”，加之邹澜司长表态要“打好宏观政策协调配合‘组合拳’，为政府债券发行营造适宜的流动性环境，增加国债买卖操作”。随后债市做多情绪抬升，10年期和30年期国债收益率均创历史新低。

The bond market turmoil at the end of the year stems from the Central Economic Work Conference held on December 13th. The conference clearly indicated reductions in both reserve requirement ratios and interest rates, setting the tone for adjusting monetary policy from "prudent" to "appropriately loose." Furthermore, Director Zou Lan expressed his intention to "deliver a well-coordinated 'combination punch' of macro policies, create an appropriate liquidity environment for government bond issuance, and increase treasury bond trading operations." As a result, the bullish sentiment in the bond market rose, pushing both the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields to historic lows.

十年期国债收益率代表着市场无风险收益，是各种资产估值的“锚”，其下降提升了债券市场的吸引力，也使得更多投资者涌入债券市场寻求避险和收益。年末机构本就存在着购买债券的动力,而今年,利率长期下行已经成为市场一致预期,机构在年末抢跑的意愿本就较强,而非银活期存款利率压降、货币政策“适度宽松”、“适时降准降息”等不断公布的利多消息成为了驱动市场走强的导火索, 宽货币预期上升点燃了市场的做多热情,机构快速抢跑。

The 10-year government bond yield represents the risk-free return in the market and serves as the "anchor" for valuing various assets. Its decline has enhanced the attractiveness of the bond market and attracted more investors to seek shelter and returns in the bond market. At year-end, institutions already had incentives to purchase bonds. This year, however, a prolonged decline in interest rates has become a consensus expectation in the market, and institutions were already eager to get ahead at year-end. Additionally, favorable news such as reductions in non-bank demand deposit rates, a "moderately loose" monetary policy, and "timely cuts to RRRs and interest rates" served as triggers driving market strength. Rising expectations of easy money ignited the market's bullish enthusiasm, prompting institutions to quickly act preemptively.

国债收益率变化 （资料来源：东证衍生品研究院)

2024年12月18日早上，央行约谈了本轮债市行情中部分交易激进的金融机构，包括部分银行、券商、保险资管、理财子公司、基金、信托公司等，并提出相关要求。要求主要包括：要密切关注自身利率风险等风险状况，提高投研能力，加强债券投资稳健性，依法合规开展投资交易等。

On the morning of December 18th, the central bank held talks with some aggressive financial institutions in this round of bond market movements, including banks, securities firms, insurance asset management companies, wealth management subsidiaries, funds, trust companies, etc., and put forward relevant requirements. These primarily included closely monitoring their own risk situations such as interest rate risks, improving investment research capabilities, enhancing the robustness of bond investments, and conducting investment transactions in accordance with laws and regulations.

此次监管约谈传递出一定预期管理信号,长债利率短期出现上行反映该因素影响。但市场对未来降准降息预期仍难以改变，这导致更多资本纷纷涌入国债市场买涨套利，带动国债收益率持续回落探底。这背后，是在资金流动性进一步宽裕的预期下，众多投资机构预期国债价格将趋涨，纷纷提前买入国债待涨而沽，至20日国债收益率已转为下行，国债价格持续上涨，债券市场也经历急跌之后再度走强。

This regulatory meeting conveyed certain signals for expectation management, and long-term bond yields rose in the short term reflecting this influence. However, the market's expectations for future RRR cuts and interest rate reductions remained unchanged, leading more capital to flood into the treasury bond market to buy on the rise and arbitrage, driving government bond yields to continue falling and bottom out. Behind this trend, with expectations of further ample liquidity, many investment institutions anticipate rising treasury bond prices and have rushed to buy treasury bonds in advance to sell when prices rise. By the 20th, government bond yields had turned downward, treasury bond prices continued to rise, and the bond market strengthened again after a sharp decline.

2024年以来，面对长期国债收益率持续下行，央行已多次“喊话”提示风险。2024年4月18日，在国务院新闻办公室举行的新闻发布会上，央行也明确提到“防止利率过低”。4月23日，央行相关部门负责人表示，长期国债收益率总体会运行在与长期经济增长预期相匹配的合理区间内。

Since the beginning of this year, facing the continuous decline in long-term government bond yields, the central bank has repeatedly issued warnings about risks. On April 18th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, the central bank also clearly mentioned the need to "prevent excessively low interest rates." On April 23rd, the head of a relevant department at the central bank stated that long-term government bond yields would generally operate within a reasonable range matching long-term economic growth expectations.

2024年6月19日，央行行长潘功胜在2024陆家嘴论坛上明确指出：“当前特别是要关注一些非银主体大量持有中长期债券的期限错配和利率风险，保持正常向上倾斜的收益率曲线，保持市场对投资的正向激励作用。”

On June 19th, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, clearly pointed out at the 2024 Lujiazui Forum: "Currently, special attention should be paid to the maturity mismatch and interest rate risks associated with some non-bank entities holding a large amount of medium- and long-term bonds. We must maintain a normally upward-sloping yield curve and ensure that the market provides positive incentives for investment."

然而，从后续反应来看，长债收益率同样并未调整。长期国债收益率反映了市场对经济增长的预期，与我国经济的长期基本面息息相关。

However, subsequent reactions showed that long-term bond yields did not adjust accordingly. Long-term government bond yields reflect market expectations for economic growth and are closely related to China's long-term economic fundamentals.

2 债市做多情绪上扬，潜在风险仍不容忽视

Bullish Sentiment Rises, but

Potential Risks Cannot Be Ignored

2024年，以10年期国债为代表的国债收益率总体呈下降趋势。这一趋势的形成，既受到国内经济基本面偏弱、广谱利率下调的影响，也与央行多次降息、降准等货币政策操作密切相关。在经济基本面弱复苏和货币政策强预期的双重背景下，投资者需重点关注债券市场的投资风险。

In 2024, Treasury yields, represented by the 10-year note, are generally on a downward trend. The formation of this trend is not only affected by the weak domestic economic fundamentals and the reduction of broad spectrum interest rates, but also closely related to the central bank's multiple interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio and other monetary policy operations. In the dual background of weak recovery of economic fundamentals and strong expectations of monetary policy, investors need to focus on investment risks in the bond market.

利率是债券市场投资者普遍关切的重要指标。近日债券市场持续大幅波动，在一定程度上反映出市场对利率未来的走势存在分歧。华安证券固收团队称，从“适度宽松”的货币政策定调来看，利率在未来仍有下降的可能，未来债券市场可能面临更低的利率环境。在本轮降息周期中，银行存款利率与贷款利率同步下调，而广谱利率下行有望继续支撑债市做多。

Interest rate is an important indicator of general concern for bond market investors. Bond markets have continued to swing wildly in recent days, in part reflecting disagreement over the future path of interest rates. Hua 'an Securities fixed income team said that from the "moderately loose" monetary policy setting, interest rates are still likely to fall in the future, the bond market may face a lower interest rate environment in the future. In this round of rate cut cycle, bank deposit rates and loan rates have been lowered in step, while the decline in broad spectrum rates is expected to continue to support the bond market long.

然而，影响债券市场的因素错综复杂，宽松政策并不必然带来债券收益率的下降。兴业证券固收部门在研究报告中指出，存款市场在市场化利率传导体系的重要作用不容忽视。商业银行净息差是其盈利来源，这决定了存款利率具有相对“刚性”，对央行降息以及广谱利率的下行存在一定的制约作用。

However, the factors affecting the bond market are complex, and easing policy does not necessarily lead to lower bond yields. The fixed income department of Industrial Securities pointed out in the research report that the important role of the deposit market in the market-oriented interest rate transmission system cannot be ignored. The net interest margin of commercial banks is the source of their profits, which determines that the deposit interest rate is relatively "rigid", which restricts the interest rate cut by the central bank and the downward trend of broad spectrum interest rate.

债市投资操盘手王宁感受到了市场分歧，在接受采访时向记者表示：“债券市场走强可能会进一步延续到2025年，但由于基本面错综复杂，在多方因素的综合作用下，明年债市收益率波动可能加大，债券市场操作难度会进一步上升。”

Sensing the market divergence, Wang Ning, a bond market investment operator, told reporters in an interview: "The bond market strength may extend further into 2025, but due to the complex fundamentals and the combined effect of multiple factors, the bond market yield volatility may increase next year, and the difficulty of bond market operation will increase further."

“预计2025年10年期国债收益率有望突破1.5%，债市短期加杠杆拉久期热情高涨，这将导致债券市场短期剧烈震荡，风险进一步增加。”甬兴证券分析师同样认为债券市场未来将震荡波动，提醒投资者警惕追高风险。

"It is expected that the 10-year Treasury yield is expected to exceed 1.5% in 2025, and the enthusiasm of the bond market to increase short-term leverage and duration is

来源：辟谣特工队