摘要：陈楚珊：Americans Predict Challenges in 2025, With a Few Bright Spots（美国人预测2025年将面临诸多困难，但也存在一些亮点）

陈楚珊：Americans Predict Challenges in 2025, With a Few Bright Spots（美国人预测2025年将面临诸多困难，但也存在一些亮点）

梅根·布伦南（Megan Brenan）

简介：Megan Brenan is a Senior Editor at Gallup. Brenan uses her expertise in analysis and questionnaire design to advise on Gallup client survey projects. She also writes data-driven articles on a broad range of topics for Gallup.com, including economic, political and business matters.（梅根·布伦南是盖洛普的高级编辑。布伦南运用她在分析和问卷设计方面的专业知识，为盖洛普客户的调查项目提供建议。她还为 Gallup.com 撰写数据驱动的文章，涵盖经济、政治和商业等广泛主题。）

华盛顿特区——根据美国人对国家事务和日常生活各方面的预测，他们认为未来一年美国将充满挑战。大多数美国成年人认为，2025年将会是一个充满政治冲突，经济困难，国际纷争，中国和俄罗斯的影响力增强以及联邦预算赤字上升的一年。

然而，对于2025年，人们也抱有一些乐观态度，66%的美国成年人预计股市将上涨，54%的人认为就业将增加或实现充分就业，52%的人预测物价将会有合理的增长。与此同时，在对2025年美国在世界上的影响力、劳工罢工数量、税收及犯罪率的预测方面，美国人的预测基本一致。

自1960年以来，盖洛普公司定期询问美国人对来年的预测。2022年前的调查是通过面对面或是电话方式进行的，因此这些结果不能与当前的数据直接比较，当前的数据是12月4日至15日通过盖洛普基于概率抽样的小组在全国范围内收集的具有代表性的网络调查数据。

共和党人的积极预测远远超过民主党

随着唐纳德·特朗普即将重返白宫，共和党人在所有衡量指标上做出积极预测的可能性远高于民主党人。无党派人士的预测则与全国平均水平相当。

绝大多数共和党人预计美国在除政治合作之外的所有指标上都将取得积极成果，只有45%的人预测政治合作将改善。相比之下，不超过四分之一的民主党人对11项议题持积极预期，仅有31%的人预计罢工将较少，46%的人认为股市将上涨。无党人士的积极预测仅在两个议题上达到多数水平——股市和就业。

党派之间在积极预测上存在差异是常见现象，因为认同总统所属政党的美国人通常对新的一年持更乐观的态度。尽管民主党人在2023年对各个方面的预期普遍比共和党人更积极，但他们的乐观程度并不如今年的共和党人那么强烈。2022年底，美国正遭受高通胀的困扰，这可能抑制了民主党人的乐观情绪。而特朗普在11月的胜选激励了共和党人，无疑促使他们对新一年的整体前景持普遍乐观态度。

纵观13个维度，共和党人的积极预测比两年前高出30到79个百分点，而民主党的积极预测则低了5至59个百分点。

由于共和党人的积极性增强，美国人总体上做出比2022年更多的积极预测，但有一个问题除外——现在只有46%的人认为俄罗斯在全球的影响力将会下降，比2022年的64%，下降了18个百分点。

底线

美国人对未来一年的的预测与他们对当前国内外形势的看法密切相关。盖洛普最近的民调显示，人们对经济状况、国家发展方向以及乔·拜登总统的施政表现普遍持负面评价，这可能影响了他们对2025年的预期。唯一的例外是，随着特朗普准备再次当选总统，共和党人对未来一年的预测普遍较为乐观。

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans foresee a somewhat challenging year ahead for the country, based on their predictions for various aspects of U.S. affairs and daily life. Majorities of U.S. adults think 2025 will be a year of political conflict, economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power for China and Russia, and a rising federal budget deficit.

However, there is at least some optimism for 2025, as 66% of U.S. adults expect gains in the stock market, 54% think there will be increasing or full employment, and 52% predict reasonable price growth. Meanwhile, Americans are essentially tied in their projections for what 2025 will hold when it comes to the United States’ power in the world, the number of labor strikes, taxes and crime rates.

Gallup has periodically asked Americans for their predictions for the coming year since 1960. Surveys before 2022 were conducted in person or by telephone, and those results are not directly comparable to the current data, which were collected Dec. 4-15 in a nationally representative web survey via Gallup’s probability-based panel.

Republicans’ Positive Predictions Far Outpace Democrats’

With Donald Trump about to return to the White House, Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to offer positive predictions for all of the dimensions measured. Independents’ expectations are similar to the national averages.

Broad majorities of Republicans foresee positive outcomes for the U.S. on all measures except political cooperation, which is predicted by 45%. Conversely, no more than one-quarter of Democrats expect positive results for 11 of the issues, while 31% anticipate few labor strikes and 46% think the stock market will rise. Independents’ positive predictions only rise to the majority level for two items -- the stock market and employment.

A gap in partisans’ positive predictions is typical, as Americans who identify with the president’s party are more optimistic in their outlook for the year ahead. Although Democrats were more hopeful than Republicans about all dimensions for 2023, their optimism was not as fervent as Republicans’ is this year. At the end of 2022, the nation was plagued by high inflation, which likely tempered Democrats’ optimism. Trump’s victory in November has energized Republicans and has undoubtedly contributed to their broadly positive expectations for the year ahead.

Across the 13 dimensions, Republicans’ positive predictions are 30 to 79 percentage points higher than they were two years ago, while Democrats’ are between five and 59 points lower.

As a result of Republicans' increased positivity, Americans overall offer more positive predictions now than they did in 2022, with the exception of one issue -- fewer now (46%) than in 2022 (64%) expect that Russia’s power in the world will decline, an 18-point slide.

Bottom Line

Americans’ forecast for the year ahead is tied to their views of the current domestic and international climates. Recent Gallup polling finds that opinions of the economy, the direction of the country and President Joe Biden’s job performance are all negative, which is likely contributing to their outlook for 2025. The exception is Republicans’ broadly positive predictions for the year ahead as Trump prepares to become president again.

来源：非 常道