摘要：Jeffrey M. Jones, Ph.D., has served as a Gallup Senior Editor since 2000, overseeing research and conducting analysis for Gallup's

Slightly fewer Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.略少的美国人对美国目前的状况感到满意）

杰弗里·M·琼斯（JEFFREY M. JONES）

Jeffrey M. Jones, Ph.D., has served as a Gallup Senior Editor since 2000, overseeing research and conducting analysis for Gallup's U.S. polling and other public release surveys. His research on public opinion and voting behavior has been published in academic journals and edited books.

哲学博士杰弗里·M·琼斯（JEFFREY M. JONES）自2000年起担任盖洛普高级编辑，负责监督盖洛普美国民意调查及其他公开发布调查的研究并进行分析。他关于公众舆论和投票行为的研究已发表在学术期刊及编辑书籍中。

华盛顿——盖洛普在2024年大选共和党大获全胜后的首次民调显示，美国国民情绪的关键指标呈现复杂变化。美国人对经济的信心有所改善，主要因共和党人乐观情绪上升，对国会表示认可的美国人比例略高于大选前，提及经济问题为国家首要难题的美国成年人减少。与此同时，总统乔·拜登的支持率降至37%，对美国现状表示满意的美国人减少。

结果来⾃11⽉6⽇⾄20⽇的盖洛普⺠意调查，该⺠意调查还发现，美国⼈对当选总统唐纳德·特朗普的⽀持率现在⽐选举⽇之前略⾼，⽽对乔·拜登总统、副总统卡马拉·哈⾥斯和民主党的⽀持率略有恶化。这是在党派对选举结果的情绪反应非常不同时出现的。

经济前景改善，主要体现在共和党人群体中

11月的盖洛普经济信心指数为-17，较10月提升9点，为2021年8月（-12）以来的最佳表现，当时经济正从新冠疫情的初步冲击中持续复苏。2021年底至2022年初，随着通胀上升，该指数一路跌至2022年6月的-58，为2007-2009年大衰退以来的最差表现。

该指数总结了美国⼈⽬前对美国经济的评价，以及他们对经济是好转还是恶化的

看法。

经济信心上升主要由共和党人推动，其指数本月飙升29点至-43。无党派人士信心上升9点至-25，而民主党人信心下降10点至+27。

这些转变在很⼤程度上是党派对经济前景的看法发⽣变化的，这可能是对特朗普当选总统的反应。现在，更多的共和党人认为经济正在好转，⽽更少的⼈认为经济正在恶化。相⽐之下更少的民主党人认为经济正在改善，⽽更多的⼈认为经济正在恶化。

盖洛普在2020年大选选后衡量了类似的政党转变，当时民主党人乔·拜登击败了共和党人特朗普。到2021年2月，拜登上任后不久，民主主党人的指数得分高于共和党。

更多共和党人、更少民主党人对国家现状满意

与选举前（26%）相⽐，对美国现在的情况感到满意的美国⼈（22%）更少。共和党满意度的显著飙升（从5%到16%）被民主党人的大幅下降（从47%下降到31%）和独立人士的轻微下降（从25%下降到21%）所抵消。

2020年大选后，共和党人的满意度降幅更剧烈（从60%降至35%），而当年民主党人和无党派人士的满意度未变。

拜登支持率接近谷底

拜登的支持率从大选前的41%降至37%，仅比他7月退出总统竞选前不久创下的个人最低值高1点。

支持率下降主要因无党派人士的支持率从大选前的38%降至32%。80%的民主党人和7%的共和党人认可拜登的工作。

跛脚鸭总统的选举后职位⽀持率的趋势好坏参半。⾃1952年以来，12位跛脚鸭总统中有⼀半在选举后⽴即获得了更⾼的⽀持率。包括拜登在内的三家出现了下降，三家收视率稳定。

特朗普和吉⽶·卡特是选举后⽀持率下降的其他总统。两⼈都失去了担任总统的第⼆个任期的竞标。特朗普的⼯作⽀持率在2020年⼤选后略有下降，从46%下降到43%，并且会进⼀步下降，因为他跛脚的时期以他努⼒对结果提出异议为标志。1980年⼤选后，卡特的⼯作⽀持率从37%下降到31%。

其他三位总统在选举后的⼯作⽀持率上没有看到有意义的变化。这包括两⼈——林登·约翰逊和哈⾥·杜鲁门——他们和拜登⼀样，有资格再任⼀个任期，但最终没有追求这个任期。1968年涉及约翰逊的选举与今年的选举相似，现任总统退出，他的副总统成为该党的总统候选⼈，但最终输掉了选举。德怀特·艾森豪威尔是另⼀位跛脚鸭总统，其选举后⽀持率没有变化。

巴拉克·奥巴马，乔治·W。布什、比尔·克林顿、乔治·H·W.布什、罗纳德·里根和杰

拉尔德·福特在选举后都获得了更高的支持率。福特和⽼布什在连任的尝试中也失败了。

民意调查还发现，30%的美国⼈赞成拜登处理外交事务，这是迄今为⽌对拜登在这个问题上的最低收视率。美国⼈给拜登更⾼的分数，因为他对经济的处理⽅式，获得了38%的⽀持。2022年8⽉，他的经济⽀持率低⾄31%。

国会的批准率上升

19%的美国⼈赞成国会所做的⼯作，⽐选举前的16%和今年的较⾼收视率略有上升。

政治独⽴⼈⼠（其支持率从17%上升到21%）和民主党人（从19%上升到24%）对国会的看法比选举前略有积极。

主要问题基本相同，但提到经济问题的⼈较少

当被要求说出国家⾯临的最重要问题时，美国⼈继续关注三个问题，21%的⼈提到政府，20%提到移民，17%提到经济。在过去的⼀个⽉⾥，经济出现了轻微的转向政府。另有11%的美国成年⼈将通货膨胀视为最重要的问题，⽐10⽉、9⽉和8⽉的读数略有下降。

当被问及国家面临的最重要问题时，美国人仍聚焦三大议题：21%提及政府，20%提及移民，17%提及经济。过去一个月，关注点从经济略微转向政府。另有11%的美国成年人将通胀列为首要问题，略低于10月、9月和8月。

总结

大选后，美国人对经济更乐观，但对拜登的表现和国家现状更悲观。这些变化普遍反映出某一党派群体的强烈转向，包括共和党人对经济走向更加乐观，而民主党人在共和党掌控联邦政府行政和立法部门后对国家现状更不满。未来数月，共和党人对国家状况的看法可能愈发积极，而民主党人的意见可能进一步恶化。一旦特朗普和共和党国会于2025年初就职，预计共和党人对经济、国家现状和联邦领导人的评价将超过民主党人。

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup’s first poll after the Republican sweep in the 2024 elections finds a mix of changes in key indicators of the national mood.Americans’ confidence in the economy has improved, largely because of increased optimism among Republicans, and slightly more Americans approve of Congress than did before the election. Fewer U.S. adults also name economic matters as the most important problem facing the country. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has dipped to 37%, and fewer Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S.

The results are from a Nov. 6-20 Gallup poll, which also found that Americans’ favorable ratings of President-elect Donald Trump are slightly more positive now than before Election Day, while favorability toward President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party have worsened slightly. This comes as partisans are experiencing very different emotional reactions to the election outcome.

Improved Economic Outlook, Primarily Among Republicans

Gallup’s Economic Confidence Index in November is -17, an improvement of nine points from October. The current reading is the best since a -12 reading in August 2021, when the economy continued to improve from the initial shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic. In reaction to rising inflation in late 2021 and early 2022, the index subsequently fell as low as -58 by June 2022, which was the worst reading since the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

The index summarizes Americans’ current evaluations of the U.S. economy and their perceptions of whether it is getting better or worse.

Higher economic confidence is being driven primarily by Republicans, whose index score gained 29 points to -43 this month. Independents’ confidence went up nine points, to -25, while Democrats’ dropped 10 points, to +27.

These shifts are largely a function of changes in partisans’ perceptions about the outlook for the economy, likely a reaction to Trump’s election as president. Many more Republicans now view the economy as getting better, and many fewer say it is getting worse. In contrast, fewer Democrats see the economy as improving, and more see it worsening.

Gallup measured similar party shifts after the 2020 election, when Democrat Joe Biden defeated Republican Trump. By February 2021, shortly after Biden took office, Democrats’ index score was higher than Republicans’.

More Republicans, Fewer Democrats Satisfied With State of Nation

Fewer Americans are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S. now (22%) than before the election (26%). A notable spike in Republican satisfaction (from 5% to 16%) has been more than offset by a larger decline among Democrats (from 47% to 31%) and a slight dip among independents (from 25% to 21%).

Immediately after the 2020 election, satisfaction among Republicans dropped even more steeply, from 60% to 35%, than Democrats’ did this year. Neither Democrats’ nor independents’ satisfaction levels changed after the 2020 election.

Biden Ratings Nearly Hit Bottom

Biden’s job approval rating has dipped to 37% from 41% before the election, and is just one point above his personal low registered in July, shortly before he dropped out of the presidential election race.

The decline is largely because ratings among political independents have dropped from 38% approval before the election to 32% now. Eighty percent of Democrats and 7% of Republicans approve of the job Biden is doing.

The trends in lame-duck presidents’ immediate postelection job approvalratings are mixed. Half of the 12 lame-duck presidents since 1952 had higherapproval ratings immediately after the election. Three, including Biden, sawdeclines, and three had stable ratings.

Trump and Jimmy Carter are the other presidents who saw declines in support after an election. Both had lost their bid to serve a second term as president. Trump’s job approval rating fell slightly after the 2020 election,from 46% to 43%, and would drop even further as his lame-duck period was marked by his efforts to dispute the outcome. Carter’s job approval rating dropped from 37% to 31% after the 1980 election.

Three other presidents saw no meaningful change in their postelection job approval ratings. This includes two -- Lyndon Johnson and Harry Truman --who, like Biden, were eligible for another term but ultimately did not pursue it.

The 1968 election involving Johnson was similar to this year’s, with the incumbent president dropping out and his vice president becoming the party’s presidential nominee, but ultimately losing the election. Dwight Eisenhower was the other lame-duck president whose postelection approval rating was unchanged.

Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Gerald Ford all saw higher approval ratings after the election. Ford and the elder Bush had also been defeated in their reelection attempts.

The poll also finds 30% of Americans approving of Biden’s handling of foreign affairs, the lowest rating for him on the issue to date. Americans give Biden higher marks, 38% approval, for his handling of the economy. His economic approval rating has been as low as 31%, in August 2022.

Congress’ Approval Ticks Up

Nineteen percent of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, up slightly from 16% before the election and on the higher range of ratings this year.

Political independents (whose approval has risen from 17% to 21%) and Democrats (from 19% to 24%) view Congress slightly more positively than before the election.

Top Problems Largely the Same, but Fewer Mention Economic Matters

Americans continue to focus on three issues when asked to name the most important problem facing the country, with 21% mentioning the government, 20% immigration and 17% the economy. There has been a slight shift away from the economy and toward the government in the past month. Another

11% of U.S. adults name inflation as the most important problem, down slightly from readings in October, September and August.

Economic issues as a whole -- including the economy in general, inflation and others, like the federal budget deficit -- are less top of mind to Americans when asked to name the most important problem. Last month, 43% mentioned an economic issue, compared with 33% this month. The decline is seen among all party groups, with Democrats (from 31% to 17%) and Republicans (from 52% to 41%) showing larger declines than independents (from 45% to 39%).

Bottom Line

After the election, Americans are more positive about the economy but less positive about Biden’s performance and the state of the nation. The shifts generally reflect sharp changes among one or the other partisan group, including Republicans becoming much more optimistic about the economy’s direction and Democrats less satisfied with the state of the nation after an election that gave Republicans control of the federal government’s executive and legislative branches. Republicans’ views about national conditions are likely to become increasingly positive in the coming months, while Democrats’ opinions will likely sour. Once Trump and the Republican Congress are installed in their offices in early 2025, Republicans’ assessments of the economy, state of the nation and federal leaders are expected to surpass those of Democrats.

来源：非常道