摘要：After a busy weekend of talks in Geneva, an impatient reporter asked when the results would be announced. Li Chenggang, China’s tr
#每天读一段《经济学人》# For the next 90 days, at least 至少在接下来的90天内是这样
After a busy weekend of talks in Geneva, an impatient reporter asked when the results would be announced. Li Chenggang, China’s trade representative, replied with a smile and an old saying: “Good food is never too late.”
在日内瓦经过忙碌的周末谈判之后，一位心急的记者询问结果何时会公布。中国贸易代表李成钢面带微笑，用一句老话回应道：“好饭不怕晚。”
The dish, when it at last arrived on May 12th, was surprisingly tasty. America has agreed to cut the “reciprocal” tariffs it imposed on China last month from 125% to a more digestible 10% for at least 90 days. China has agreed to do the same. It has also agreed to roll back other retaliatory measures, such as restrictions on sales of rare-earth minerals.
5月12日，这份协议最终出炉，令人意外地颇具 “风味”。美国已同意将其上个月对中国征收的 “对等” 关税从125% 降至更易于接受的10%，且至少维持90天。中国也已同意采取同样的举措。中国还同意取消其他报复性措施，比如对稀土矿产销售的限制。
Earlier tariffs that each country has imposed will remain. They include an American levy of 20% that Donald Trump introduced to punish China for making the ingredients of fentanyi, a synthetic opioid. The result is a combination of tariffs that are far higher than Mr Trump inherited when he returned to office in January but much lower than seemed likely a few weeks ago, when Mr Trump was admonishing China for a "lack of respect" and China was digging in for a protracted trade war. Over the next 90 days China will face a 10% reciprocal tariff like everyone else, even though it was the only country that dared to defy America.
各国此前征收的关税将继续保留。其中包括唐纳德·特朗普为惩罚中国生产合成阿片类药物芬太尼的成分而加征的20%的美国关税。其结果是，目前的关税综合水平远高于特朗普1月份上任时继承的关税水平，但比几周前看起来可能出现的关税水平要低得多，当时特朗普还在指责中国“缺乏尊重”，而中国也在为一场长期的贸易战做准备。在接下来的90天里，中国将像其他国家一样面临10%的对等关税，尽管它是唯一敢于违抗美国的国家。
Markets gobbled up the news. The dollar rose by about 1% against the euro. The S&P 500 index of big American firms jumped by 2.6% when it opened on May 12th. Stockmarkets in mainland China had closed before the agreement was revealed. But in Hong Kong the Hang Seng index, which includes many mainland companies, rose by 1.7% in the final hour of trading.
市场对这一消息全盘接受。美元兑欧元升值了约1%。美国大型企业的标准普尔500指数在5月12日开盘时大幅上涨了2.6%。中国大陆股市在该协议公布前已收盘。但在香港，包含许多内地企业的恒生指数在交易的最后一个小时上涨了1.7% 。
Before the talks began, Scott Bessent, America's treasury secretary, had said the two sides were seeking merely to agree on what to talk about. Over the weekend Mr Trump posted on social media that a tariff of 80% on China "seems right!" When the negotiating teams were seen leaving the venue after only a few hours on Saturday, some feared the talks had broken down. In fact, the negotiators were just going for lunch. Good food isn't always late.
在谈判开始前，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾表示，双方仅仅是在试图就谈判内容达成一致。周末，特朗普在社交媒体上发文称，对中国征收80%的关税“似乎是合理的！”。周六，当谈判团队在仅仅几个小时后就离开了谈判场地时，一些人担心谈判已经破裂。实际上，谈判代表们只是去吃午饭了。毕竟美食也不总是姗姗来迟。
What, then, explains China's unexpected success? Jamieson Greer, America's trade representative, gave some credit to the venue. The negotiations took place not in a "sterile" hotel, but in the intimate rooms and attractive grounds of an ambassador's residence. According to Mr Greer, many of the most difficult issues were discussed on patio sofas under a beautiful tree.
那么，该如何解释中国出人意料的成功呢？美国贸易代表杰米森·格里尔将部分功劳归于谈判的地点。谈判并非在一个“毫无生气”的酒店里进行，而是在一处大使官邸温馨的房间里以及迷人的庭院中。据格里尔称，许多极为棘手的问题都是在一棵美丽的树下的露台沙发上讨论的。
Meanwhile, the state of trade between the two countries had become much less comfortable. Chinese exports to America fell by 21% in April, compared with a year earlier. The prices of Chinese goods listed on the websites of big American retailers have been rising slowly but relentlessly, according to data scraped by Alberto Cavallo of Harvard University and his co-authors.
与此同时，两国之间的贸易状况变得愈发不乐观。与去年同期相比，中国对美国的出口在4月份下降了21%。根据哈佛大学的阿尔贝托·卡瓦洛及其合著者抓取的数据显示，美国大型零售商网站上中国商品的价格一直在缓慢但持续地上涨。
In a press conference on May 12th Mr Bessent all but conceded that tariffs on China had gotten out of hand. Mr Trump had announced a "reciprocal" tariff of 34% on China on April 2nd, or "Liberation Day", as the president called it. That had quickly jumped to 84% and then 125% in response to Chinese retaliation. The result was the "equivalent of an embargo", which neither country wanted, Mr Bessent said.
在5月12日的一场新闻发布会上，贝森特几乎承认对中国征收的关税已经失控。特朗普曾在4月2日，也就是总统所称的“解放日”，宣布对中国征收34%的“对等”关税。作为对中国反制措施的回应，这一关税迅速提高到了84%，然后又涨到了125%。贝森特表示，这样的结果“相当于禁运”，而这是两国都不希望看到的情况。
The Geneva agreement, he emphasised, includes a commitment by Chinese officials to ongoing talks. If that "mechanism" had already been in place, the "unfortunate escalations" that followed Mr Trump's announcement on April 2nd could have been avoided, he said. It was an extraordinary admission. If only America's top economic officials had hit upon the ingenious idea of meeting their Chinese counterparts in person before Liberation Day, the world's two biggest economies might have been spared a great deal of turmoil.
他强调，日内瓦协议包括中国官员对持续谈判的承诺。他表示，如果这个“机制”早就存在，那么特朗普4月2日宣布决定后出现的那些“不幸的关税升级”本是可以避免的。这是一种非同寻常的承认。要是美国的高级经济官员能在“解放日”之前就想到与中方人员亲自会面这个巧妙的主意，全球最大的两个经济体或许就能免遭许多动荡了。
Financial chaos following Liberation Day, which included a bond-market revolt and a plunging dollar, helped Mr Bessent persuade Mr Trump to offer a 90-day reprieve to all of America's trading partners on April 9th. After the Geneva talks, China has now been added to the list. Its reciprocal tariff of 10% is as low as any country enjoys. Moreover, China faces this low reciprocal tariff even though it, unlike America's other trading partners, still has a 10% retaliatory tariff in place.
“解放日”之后的金融混乱，包括债券市场的动荡以及美元的大幅下跌，促使贝森特说服特朗普在4月9日给予美国所有贸易伙伴90天的关税缓征期。日内瓦会谈之后，中国也被纳入了这一范围。中国所面临的10%的对等关税和其他国家一样低。此外，尽管与美国的其他贸易伙伴不同，中国仍然维持着10%的报复性关税，但它也能享受这一较低的对等关税待遇。
The big question is what happens after 90 days. Most trade agreements take far longer to negotiate. And America is already trying to hammer out deals with 16 other economies at the same time. Mr Bessent was careful to point out that the 34% tariff chosen for China on Liberation Day is not a dead letter. It remains the default to which America will return after the pause, if nothing happens in the interim.
最大的问题是90天之后会发生什么。大多数贸易协定的谈判都需要更长的时间。而且美国已经在同时努力与另外16个经济体敲定协议。贝森特谨慎地指出，在“解放日”选定的对中国征收34%的关税并非一纸空文。如果在此期间没有任何进展，在关税暂停期结束后，美国仍会恢复到征收34%关税的默认状态。
To forestall that possibility China could conceivably agree to buy more commodities, such as oil or soybeans, from America-goods that it might anyway have bought from elsewhere. It could also convince America that it is working harder to crack down on the chemical companies that produce fentanyi ingredients. Mr Bessent was impressed that China's delegation included the minister of public security, who has been put in charge of fentanyi co-operation. Maybe the two superpowers will orchestrate a compromise in which America raises the reciprocal tariff back to 34%, but removes the 20% fentanyi penalty. That might be enough to turn the Swiss truce into a more lasting peace.
为了防止这种可能性，中国可以考虑同意从美国购买更多的大宗商品，比如石油或大豆，这些商品中国无论如何都可能从其他地方购买。中国还可以让美国相信，它正在更努力地打击生产芬太尼成分的化工企业。中国代表团中有公安部长参与负责芬太尼合作事宜，这给贝森特留下了深刻印象。或许两个超级大国会精心安排一个折衷方案，美国将对等关税提高至34%，但取消20%的芬太尼惩罚性关税。这或许足以将这份瑞士斡旋达成的停火协议转变为更持久的和平。
The Chinese adage about the timing of good food often adds a line: "Interesting talk is never too slow." If they are to avoid a return to tariff turmoil, China and America must hope that their talks over the next 90 days are full of interest and not too slow.
中国有句关于美食时机的谚语，后面常常还会加上一句：“妙语亦不嫌迟。” 如果中美两国想要避免重回关税动荡的局面，那它们就得寄望于在接下来的90天里，双方的谈判既充满实质内容，进程又不会过于迟缓。
#外语学习##读书笔记#图源网络
祝好[心]
来源：国际纵横上下
