摘要：With the rapid development of the digital transformation and AI, how can we narrow the digital divide between countries and groups

With the rapid development of the digital transformation and AI, how can we narrow the digital divide between countries and groups? What can be done to address the risk of large-scale unemployment caused by the rapid application of AI? How should digital talents and skills be cultivated?

Kirill BABAEV

Director of the Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Development of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies is creating a new technological and economic reality. Its parameters are not fully known to us. Perhaps, future historians will say that AI has become a factor in the formation of a new social order. However, it is also possible that we exaggerate the influence of AI on the course of history.

Nevertheless, we can already identify the problem of unequal access of countries to emerging AI technologies. The speed and efficiency of their implementation in production, government and public activities depends on the initial scientific, technical and economic base of the state, the presence of a targeted policy for the development of AI and sufficient resources to implement such a policy.

Let me answer your question by describing two polar and, I should emphasize, purely speculative scenarios of our future.

The first scenario is that countries and groups will not be able to evenly distribute the fruits that AI will bring to humanity. As a result, the gap between the richest group of the population, the ruling "class" and everyone else will become even more pronounced within countries. Only a small percentage of people will have access to advanced medicine, new diagnostic and surgical methods, while the majority of the population will lie in crowded wards, waiting to be examined by a tired doctor. Only a small percentage will be able to organize cleaning and cooking in their "smart homes", freeing up time for creativity and leisure activities, while the majority of the population will still be burdened with household chores. At the global level, we will witness the formation of new blocs. More developed powers will impose their own technological solutions and standards on other countries. For less developed countries, this will mean a loss of sovereignty in the scientific, technical and military spheres and a lower standard of living.

Another, more positive scenario is that the fruits of AI technologies will be distributed equally within and between countries. Different layers of society will have equal access to the opportunities created by AI in the fields of health care, education, services, logistics, agriculture, and government services. Figuratively speaking, an African farmer will be able to obtain a specialty through online training according to a program offered by AI, and a worker at a factory in Southeast Asia will be able to go to a city hospital for a quick diagnosis using an X-ray. AI will free the population from routine tasks, many diseases and will release social energy that can be directed to creative projects and complex tasks that require human participation. At the interstate level, countries will exchange advanced technological achievements and experience in implementing them in various areas of social activity.

To implement a positive scenario, it will be necessary to maintain mutual trust between countries and a willingness to share their own achievements in the technological sphere, which is extremely difficult and virtually impossible in the context of a new round of arms race, trade wars and hot wars.

A more equitable distribution of the fruits of AI development within countries will be mainly determined by state policy on the implementation of advanced achievements in the sphere of public administration and public services. We can start by bringing the Internet to rural and underdeveloped regions of countries, teaching the population how to use digital technologies, and developing a general understanding of what artificial intelligence is. It is advisable to ensure that schoolchildren and students study the basics of programming and machine learning. Expanded use of AI in various public spheres and institutions will ensure that widespread interest in these technologies is maintained and, as a result, the number of people who are familiar with them in one way or another will increase.

The risk of large-scale unemployment due to the introduction of AI technologies seems exaggerated. At least at the current state of development, complete replacement of humans with AI is possible only in areas with absolutely repetitive tasks. This is, for example, data entry, answering calls in call centers, or assembling electronics. However, in most areas of human activity, be it medicine, finance, education, manufacturing, public administration, artificial intelligence will remain an auxiliary tool that will take on the most boring work and free up employees' time to solve more complex problems.

来源：博鳌亚洲论坛