摘要：Megan Brenan is a Senior Editor at Gallup.Brenan uses her expertise in analysis and questionnaire design to advise on Gallup clien

Author：MEGAN BRENAN

Megan Brenan is a Senior Editor at Gallup.Brenan uses her expertise in analysis and questionnaire design to advise on Gallup client survey projects.She also writes data-driven articles on a broad range of topics for Gallup.com,including economic,political and business matters.

Before joining Gallup,Brenan worked more than 17 years at The New York Times as a writer and most recently as the deputy editor of the News Surveys desk.She covered polling and elections throughout her tenure at The Times under the bylines"Megan Thee"and Megan Thee-Brenan."

Brenan received her bachelor's degree in political science from College of the Holy Cross,Worcester,Mass.She has been a member of AAPOR for nearly two decades and served as secretary and treasurer of its New York Chapter.

梅根·布雷南是盖洛普的高级编辑。布雷南运用她在分析和问卷设计方面的专业知识，为盖洛普客户的调查项目提供建议。她还为Gallup.com撰写数据驱动的文章，涵盖经济、政治和商业等广泛主题。

加入盖洛普之前，布伦南曾在《纽约时报》担任撰稿人超过17年，最近担任新闻调查部门副主编。在《纽约时报》任职期间，她以“Megan Thee”和“Megan Thee-Brenan”为笔名报道民意调查和选举。

布伦南在马萨诸塞州伍斯特市圣十字学院获得政治学学士学位。她已担任AAPOR会员近二十年，并担任其纽约分会的秘书和财务主管。

更多美国人表示将接受特朗普为合法总统，比例高于2016年

华盛顿——在充满争议的2024年美国总统大选之后，绝大多数共和党人和倾向共和党的独立人士称，他们对唐纳德・特朗普获胜的反应是乐观的（86%）、宽慰的（85%）、兴奋的（76%）和自豪的（72%）。相比之下，大多数民主党人和倾向民主党的独立人士称，他们对选举结果感到害怕（76%）、愤怒（68%）和崩溃（61%）。

民主党人表示对选举结果感到惊讶的可能性是共和党人的两倍多（分别为59%和27%）。

很少有民主党人表达积极情绪，也很少有共和党人表达消极情绪。

总体而言，在Gallup 2024年11月6日至20日进行的调查中，即特朗普获胜后的两周内，使用该调查所包含的八种情绪中的任何一种来描述自己对选举反应的美国成年人不超过一半。50%的美国成年人表示对选举结果感到乐观，40%至46%的人感到宽慰、兴奋或自豪。而表示感到害怕、愤怒或崩溃的美国人较少，在29%至38%之间。

Gallup在2016年特朗普意外获胜后也询问了这些问题中的大部分。2016年和现在情绪方面的最大差异在于表示惊讶的百分比。2016年，75%的美国成年人感到惊讶，而现在这一比例为41%。与此同时，现在表示自豪或兴奋的美国人比2016年略多。今年在宽慰、崩溃、恐惧和愤怒方面的数据与2016年相比没有统计学差异，并且2016年的调查中没有包含乐观这一情绪。

现在民主党人和共和党人对选举结果的惊讶程度都低于2016年，但共和党人的惊讶程度下降幅度更大（下降了37个百分点），而民主党人下降了29个百分点。与此同时，与2016年相比，更多共和党人表达了自豪和兴奋的情绪，这使得这两种情绪的比例有所上升。

大多数美国人将接受特朗普为合法总统

超过九成的美国人表示他们将接受特朗普为合法总统，其中包括99%的共和党人和倾向共和党的人，以及84%的民主党人和倾向民主党的人。盖洛普上次在2016年特朗普意外获胜后提出这个问题，当时他赢得了选举人团票，但没有赢得普选票。当时，表示愿意接受特朗普的美国人和民主党人（分别为84%和77%）比现在少。

2020年选举后没有问这个问题，当时乔・拜登赢得了选举人团票和普选票，但特朗普对结果提出质疑并反对认证投票结果。在2016年之前，盖洛普在2000年问过这个问题，当时乔治布什在佛罗里达州选票统计的法律纠纷后赢得了选举人团票。最高法院最终判定布什胜诉，而阿尔・戈尔赢得了普选票。2000年在这一指标上的数据与2016年相似，不过当时认为布什是合法获胜者的民主党人更少（70%）。

特朗普现在的支持率高于哈里斯和拜登

自10月下旬以来，特朗普的支持率上升了4个百分点，达到48%，而对他持负面看法的美国人比例同样为48%。相比之下，卡玛拉・哈里斯的支持率在同一时期下降了7个百分点，降至42%，53%的美国人对她持负面评价。两位总统候选人在各自的党内忠实支持者和倾向于他们所在政党的独立人士中获得的支持率相近。

自最后一次大选前的调查以来，乔・拜登总统的支持率也略微下降，从43%降至40%。他在民主党人和倾向民主党人士中的支持率仍低于哈里斯。

特朗普目前的支持率距离他2016年以来的最高纪录仅差1个百分点，该最高纪录是在美国新冠疫情初期测得的。

选举后共和党比民主党更受青睐

尽管自共和党赢得总统职位、美国参议院和美国众议院的控制权以来，特朗普的支持率略有提升，但共和党的支持率保持在44%不变。与此同时，自盖洛普10月的最后一次大选前调查以来，美国人对民主党的支持率下降了5个百分点，降至38%。

共和党的当前支持率与1992年以来的平均支持率相符，而民主党的最新支持率比其平均支持率低11个百分点。

大约相同比例的民主党人和倾向民主党人士（74%）以及共和党人和倾向共和党人士（78%）对自己的政党持积极看法，但自10月下旬以来，民主党人对自己政党的评价下降了7个百分点。

要点总结

特朗普的连任让共和党人充满乐观、宽慰、兴奋和自豪，但却让民主党人感到恐惧、愤怒、崩溃和惊讶。尽管如此，民主党人普遍接受特朗普为合法总统，这一程度甚至超过了2016年他击败希拉里・克林顿的时候。在共和党赢得总统职位以及国会参众两院之后，美国人现在对共和党的好感度高于民主党。然而，好感度的差距源于11月民主党好感度的下降，而非共和党获胜后其好感度的增加。

More Americans than in 2016 say they will accept Trump as the legitimate president

WASHINGTON,D.C.--In the aftermath of the contentious 2024 U.S.presidential election,large majorities of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents describe their reaction to Donald Trump’s victory as optimistic(86%),relieved(85%),excited(76%)and proud(72%).In contrast,majorities of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents report feeling afraid(76%),angry(68%)and devastated(61%)about the election’s result.

Democrats are more than twice as likely as Republicans to say they are surprised by the election outcome(59%vs.27%,respectively).

Very few Democrats express any positive emotions,and very few Republicans express any negative ones.

Overall,no more than half of U.S.adults describe their reaction to the election using any of the eight emotions included in the Gallup survey,which was conducted Nov.6-20,2024,the two-week period after Trump’s victory.Fifty percent of U.S.adults say they are optimistic about the election results,and between 40%and 46%are relieved,excited or proud.Fewer,29%to 38%of Americans,report feeling afraid,angry or devastated.

Gallup asked most of these items after Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016.The biggest difference in emotions between 2016 and now is in the percentage saying they are surprised.In 2016,75%of U.S.adults were surprised,compared with 41%today.Meanwhile,there are slightly more Americans now than in 2016 saying they are proud or excited.This year’s readings for relief,devastation,fear and anger are not statistically different from those in 2016,and optimism was not included in the 2016 list.

Both Democrats and Republicans are now less surprised with the election outcome than they were in 2016,but surprise has fallen more among Republicans(by 37 percentage points)than Democrats(29 points).Meanwhile,the increases in pride and excitement are owed to more Republicans expressing those emotions compared with 2016.

More than nine in 10 Americans say they will accept Trump as the legitimate president,including 99%of Republicans and Republican leaners and 84%of Democrats and Democratic leaners.Gallup last asked this question after Trump’s surprise 2016 victory,in which he won the Electoral College but not the popular vote.At that time,fewer Americans(84%)and Democrats(77%)said they would accept Trump than do so now.

This question was not asked after the 2020 election,when Joe Biden won the Electoral College and popular vote but Trump disputed the outcome and fought certification of the vote.Prior to 2016,Gallup asked this question in 2000 when George W.Bush won the Electoral College after legal battles over the Florida vote count.The Supreme Court ultimately decided in Bush’s favor over Al Gore,who had won the popular vote.The 2000 reading on this measure was similar to 2016,although fewer Democrats then(70%)viewed Bush as the legitimate winner.

Trump’s favorable rating has edged up four points to 48%sincethe latter half of October,while an equal 48%of Americans view him unfavorably.In contrast,Kamala Harris’favorability has fallen seven points over the same period,to 42%,and 53%of Americans rate her unfavorably.Both presidential candidates enjoy similar favorable ratings from their party faithful and independents who lean toward their party.

President Joe Biden’s favorable rating has also edged down slightly,from 43%to 40%,since his final preelection reading.His rating among Democrats and Democratic leaners remains lower than Harris’.

Trump’s current favorable rating is just one point shy of his record high since 2016,measured near the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.

Although Trump’s favorable rating has improved slightly since the GOP won control of the presidency,U.S.Senate and U.S.House of Representatives,the Republican Party's favorability is unchanged at 44%.At the same time,Americans’favorable rating of the Democratic Party has edged down five points to 38%since Gallup’s final preelection reading in October.

The Republican Party’s current rating matches its average dating back to 1992,while the Democratic Party’s latest favorable rating is 11 points below its average.

Roughly equal shares of Democrats and Democratic leaners(74%)and Republicans and Republican leaners(78%)view their own party favorably,but Democrats’rating of their own party has dropped seven points since late October.

Trump’s reelection is being met with great optimism,relief,excitement and pride from Republicans but fear,anger,devastation and surprise among Democrats.Still,Democrats broadly accept Trump as the legitimate president,even more so than in 2016 when he defeated Hillary Clinton.After the Republican Party’s sweep of the presidency and both chambers of Congress,Americans now view the GOP more favorably than the Democratic Party.However,the gap in favorability stems from a drop in favorable views of the Democratic Party in November rather than an increase in favorable views of the GOP following its victories.

来源：非常道