摘要：梅根·布伦南是盖洛普（Gallup）的高级编辑，她凭借在数据分析和问卷设计方面的专业知识为盖洛普客户的调查项目提供咨询与建议。此外，她还为 Gallup.com 撰写大量基于数据的文章，内容涵盖了经济、政治和商业等多个广泛议题。

陈嘉仪：Majorities Still Back Stricter Gun Laws, Assault Weapons Ban（多数民众仍支持更严格的枪支管控法律及攻击性武器禁令）

Megan Brenan（梅根·布伦南）

梅根·布伦南是盖洛普（Gallup）的高级编辑，她凭借在数据分析和问卷设计方面的专业知识为盖洛普客户的调查项目提供咨询与建议。此外，她还为 Gallup.com 撰写大量基于数据的文章，内容涵盖了经济、政治和商业等多个广泛议题。

在加入盖洛普之前，布伦南曾在《纽约时报》担任记者工作超过17年，并曾出任新闻调查报道版块的副主编，任职期间，她长期负责民意调查和选举相关的报道，署名为“Megan Thee”和“Megan Thee-Brenan”。

布伦南在马萨诸塞州伍斯特市的圣十字学院获得政治学学士学位。她已担任美国民意研究协会（AAPOR）会员近二十年，并曾出任该协会纽约分会的秘书兼财务主管。

Megan Brenan is a Senior Editor at Gallup. Brenan uses her expertise in analysis and questionnaire design to advise on Gallup client survey projects. She also writes data-driven articles on a broad range of topics for Gallup.com, including economic, political and business matters.

Before joining Gallup, Brenan worked more than 17 years at The New York times as a writer and most recently as the deputy editor of the News Surveys desk. She covered polling and elections throughout her tenure at The Times under the bylines "Megan Thee" and Megan Thee-Brenan."

Brenan received her bachelor's degree in political science from College of the Holy Cross, Worcester, Mass. She has been a member of AAPOR for nearly two decades and served as secretary and treasurer of its New York Chapter.

美国禁止手枪的支持率已降至接近历史最低点

华盛顿地区——大多数美国人继续支持在美国实施更严格的枪支管控法律及攻击性武器禁令，但在手枪禁令议题上，公众仍普遍持反对态度。

支持全面加强枪支销售管控法律的美国成年人稳定在56%的比例，而33%的民众倾向于维持现行法律，另有10%的受访者则希望法律能够放宽相关限制。

美国公众对全面禁手枪的反对立场依然稳固。最新数据显示，仅20%的成年人支持立法禁止除了执法人员及特殊授权人员之外的人持有手枪，比去年的支持率下降了7%，并与过去65年的历史最低纪录（19%）基本持平。

相较于全面禁枪，美国民众更倾向支持禁止攻击性武器。以微弱优势领先的52%民众主张立法禁止半自动步枪（即所谓"突击步枪"）的生产、持有与交易，但当前支持率已低于盖洛普此前两次同类调查的数值。

以下数据来源于Gallup于10月1日至12日进行的犯罪民意调查。

偏好实施更严格的枪支管控法律的美国民众比例稳定在56%

在过去的三年里，支持实施更严格的枪支销售法规的美国民众比例一直稳定在56%。自1990年盖洛普（Gallup）开始追踪这一民意调查以来，支持加强枪支管控法律的民众比例在1990年达到78%的历史峰值，而当时美国的犯罪率正是居高不下的情况。

自那以后，每当发生重大枪击事件后，要求加强枪支管控的呼声就通常会变得高涨，而随着媒体对每起事件的报道热度消退，这种呼声也会随之减弱。最近的例子是2022年5月发生在得克萨斯州乌瓦尔德市的校园枪击案，该事件导致了21人丧生。案发后的一个月内，支持加强枪支管控的比例跃升至66%。然而，这一比例到2022年10月就降到了57%，并在此后一直维持在这一水平。

在美国，不同党派对于枪支管控的态度仍存在巨大分歧，民主党支持率高达89%，独立派为56%，共和党则低至25%。自2017年以来，民主党支持加强枪支管控的比例始终维持在85%-94%区间，而共和党与独立派的支持率则显著偏低。目前，共和党的支持率与该团体在2020年创下的22%历史最低纪录基本持平。

共和党内部在枪支销售立法问题上呈现明显分歧：59%的共和党人主张维持现行枪支销售法规，15%则倾向于放宽管控。而无党派群体中，除了支持加强管控的多数无党派人士之外，另外的31%认为应该维持现状，剩下的12%则支持更严格的立法。

对手枪禁令的支持率已接近历史最低点

盖洛普自1980年以来一直在衡量公众对禁止手枪的支持度，在此之前，他们曾提出过一个类似的问题，即是否支持“禁止持有手枪和左轮手枪”的法律。在1959年的首次调查中，支持禁止未经授权人员拥有手枪的比例达到了60%的峰值。自那以后，支持率再也没有达到多数支持的水平，并且自2008年以来一直低于30%，包括当前接近历史最低点的支持率。

今年对手枪禁令支持率的下降主要归因于民主党人的态度变化。自2023年以来，民主党人的支持率下降了16个百分点，降至33%，创下新低——此前两年，民主党人对禁令的支持率曾有所上升。共和党人的支持率保持在6%，与该党的历史最低点持平，独立选民的支持率则为22%，与去年相比没有显著的变化，但明显高于2021年的历史低点14%。

支持攻击性武器禁令的美国成年人勉强过半，其中多为多数民主党人

相较于手枪禁令，美国民众对突击步枪禁令的支持度高得多，不过当前支持率（52%）较盖洛普2019年首次调查时的61%显著下降，较2022年的55%也略有下滑。与2019年相比，共和党人（27%）和无党派人士（50%）对突击武器禁令的支持率均有所下降。与此同时，民主党人（82%）始终普遍支持禁止半自动枪支。

总体而言

大多数美国民众支持实施更严格的枪支管控法律，包括禁止攻击性武器——但对手枪禁令仍持保留态度。民主党人依然是控枪政策最坚定的支持群体，不过即便是他们，如今呼吁禁售手枪的声浪也较以往明显减弱。当前，枪支政策在美国民众最关注的社会问题中排名并不靠前，但历史数据显示，每当美国发生恶性大规模枪击事件后，这种情况往往会发生改变——至少是暂时性的。

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Majorities of Americans continue to favor stricter gun laws and an assault weapons ban in the U.S., but the public remains largely opposed to a ban on handguns.

A stable 56% of U.S. adults support stricter laws covering the sale of firearms in general, while 33% prefer the laws be kept as they are now and 10% want them to be less strict.

Americans continue to oppose an outright ban on handgun possession. In fact, the 20% of U.S. adults who would favor a law banning the possession of handguns, except by the police and other authorized persons, is down seven percentage points from last year and statistically tied with the 19% record low in the 65-year trend.

Americans are much more inclined to favor a ban on assault weapons, with a slim 52% majority saying there should be a ban on the manufacture, possession and sale of semiautomatic guns, known as assault rifles. However, the current level of support is lower than what Gallup measured in two prior surveys.

These data are from Gallup’s Oct. 1-12 Crime poll.

Stricter Gun Laws in U.S. Preferred by Steady 56%

The 56% of Americans preferring stricter laws for gun sales has been steady over the past three years. The high point in support for this measure, which Gallup has tracked since 1990, was 78% in 1990 favoring stricter gun laws at a time when the nation’s crime rate was high.

Since then, calls for tougher gun control have generally spiked in the wake of prominent mass shootings and fallen as the media coverage of each has faded. The most recent example of this was in the aftermath of the May 2022 school shooting in Uvalde, Texas, that claimed the lives of 21 people. In the month after the attack, support for stricter gun laws jumped to 66%. Yet, by October 2022, the reading had fallen to 57%, about the level where it has remained since.

Partisans continue to offer sharply different preferences for gun control in the U.S., with 89% of Democrats supporting stricter gun laws compared with 56% of independents and 25% of Republicans. Democrats’ backing for tougher gun laws has ranged from 85% to 94% since 2017, while Republicans’ and independents’ have been significantly lower. Republicans’ current reading is essentially the same as the group’s 22% record low in 2020.

A 59% majority of Republicans favor keeping firearms sales laws as they are now, while 15% prefer less strict laws. In addition to the majority of independents who back stricter gun laws, 31% would like to see them kept the same and 12% support stricter laws.

Support for Handgun Ban Near Record Low

Gallup has measured public support for a ban on handguns since 1980 and, before that, had asked a similar question about “a law which would forbid the possession” of “pistols and revolvers.” Support for banning the ownership of handguns by unauthorized people peaked at 60% in 1959, the initial reading. Since then, support has never risen to the majority level and has been consistently below 30% since 2008, including the current near-record low.

The decline in support for a handgun ban this year is largely owed to Democrats, whose backing has fallen by 16 points since 2023 to 33% -- a new low -- after the group showed increasing support for a ban the prior two years. Republicans’6% support is steady, matching the party’s record low point. Independents’22% reading is not meaningfully different from last year but is significantly higher than the group’s 14% historical low in 2021.

Assault Weapons Ban Backed by Slim Majority of U.S. Adults, Most Democrats

Americans are much more supportive of a ban on assault rifles than on handguns, although support is significantly lower now (52%) than it was in Gallup’s initial reading in 2019 (61%) and is down slightly from 55% in 2022.Compared with 2019, support for an assault weapons ban is lower among Republicans (27%) and independents (50%). Meanwhile, Democrats (82%) steadily and broadly favor a ban on semiautomatic guns.

Bottom Line

A majority of Americans have an appetite for stricter gun laws in the U.S., and that includes an assault weapons ban -- but not a ban on handguns. Democrats continue to be most supportive of gun control, but even they are much less likely than before to call for banning handguns. For now, gun policy does not rank highly among the most important problems on Americans’ minds, but past data show this often changes -- at least temporarily -- after a high-profile mass shooting event in the U.S.

来源：非 常道