摘要：Americans Predict Challenges in 2025, With a Few Bright Spots（美国人预测2025年的挑战，同时也有一些亮点）
Americans Predict Challenges in 2025, With a Few Bright Spots（美国人预测2025年的挑战，同时也有一些亮点）
梅根·布雷南（Megan Brenan）
Megan Brenan 是 Gallup 的高级编辑。Brenan 利用她在分析和问卷设计方面的专业知识，为 Gallup 客户调查项目提供建议。她还为 Gallup.com 撰写了关于广泛主题的数据驱动文章，包括经济、政治和商业事务。
在加入盖洛普之前，Brenan 在《纽约时报》工作了超过 17 年，担任新闻调查台的副主编。在时报任职期间，她以“Megan Thee”和“Megan Thee-Brenan”为署名报道了民意调查和选举。
Brenan 在马萨诸塞州伍斯特市的圣十字学院获得政治学学士学位。她成为 AAPOR 的成员已有近二十年，并担任其纽约分会的秘书和财务主管。
根据美国人对美国事务和日常生活的各个方面的预测，美国人预计未来的一年将是充满挑战的一年。大多数美国成年人认为，2025年将是政治冲突、经济困难、国际纷争、中国和俄罗斯实力增强以及联邦预算赤字上升的一年。
然而，2025年至少还是有些乐观的，66%的美国成年人预计股市会上涨，54%的人认为就业会增加或充分就业，52%的人预计价格会有合理的增长。与此同时，美国人对2025年美国在世界上的实力、罢工次数、税收和犯罪率的预测基本上是一致的。
美国人对2025年的预测
哪一项在2025年更有可能成为现实？
自1960年以来，盖洛普定期询问美国人对来年的预测。2022年之前的调查是亲自或通过电话进行的，这些结果与目前的数据没有直接可比性，这些数据是在12月4日至15日通过盖洛普的概率基础面板进行的全国代表性网络调查中收集的。
共和党对预测的乐观态度远超民主党
随着唐纳德·特朗普即将重返白宫，共和党人比民主党人更有可能对所有衡量指标做出积极预测。无党派人士的预期与全国平均水平相似。
绝大多数共和党人预计，除了45%的人预测的政治合作外，美国在所有措施上都将取得积极成果。相反，只有不到四分之一的民主党人预测在11个问题上取得积极结果，31%的人预测罢工很少，46%的人认为股市会上涨。无党派人士的乐观预测只有在两个项目上上升到多数水平——股市和就业。
共和党人对2025年的预测比民主党和无党派人士更乐观
党派之间的积极预测存在差距是很典型的，因为认同总统所在政党的美国人对未来一年的前景更为乐观。尽管民主党人对2023年的各个方面都比共和党人更有希望，但他们的乐观情绪不像今年的共和党人那么强烈。2022年底，美国受到高通胀的困扰，这可能削弱了民主党人的乐观情绪。特朗普在去年11月的胜利鼓舞了共和党人，毫无疑问，这促使他们对未来一年抱有普遍积极的期望。
在这13个维度中，共和党人的乐观预测比两年前高出30%到79%个，而民主党人的乐观预测则低了5%到59%。
党派对2023年与2025年的预测变化
这些数字是两党对2023年和2025年的积极预测的百分点变化。
由于共和党人的积极态度增加，美国人现在总体上比2022年表现出了更积极的预测态度，除了一个问题——现在（46%）比2022年（64%）更少认为俄罗斯在世界上的力量会下降，下降了18%。
美国人对未来一年的预测与他们对当前国内和国际环境的看法有关。最近的盖洛普民意调查发现，对经济、国家发展方向和拜登总统的工作表现的看法都是负面的，这可能是他们对2025年前景的看法。唯一的例外是，随着特朗普准备再次成为总统，共和党人对未来一年的预测总体持乐观态度。
Americans foresee a somewhat challenging year ahead for the country, based on their predictions for various aspects of U.S. affairs and daily life. Majorities of U.S. adults think 2025 will be a year of political conflict, economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power for China and Russia, and a rising federal budget deficit.
However, there is at least some optimism for 2025, as 66% of U.S. adults expect gains in the stock market, 54% think there will be increasing or full employment, and 52% predict reasonable price growth. Meanwhile, Americans are essentially tied in their projections for what 2025 will hold when it comes to the United States’ power in the world, the number of labor strikes, taxes and crime rates.
Gallup has periodically asked Americans for their predictions for the coming year since 1960. Surveys before 2022 were conducted in person or by telephone, and those results are not directly comparable to the current data, which were collected Dec. 4-15 in a nationally representative web survey via Gallup’s probability-based panel.
Republicans’ Positive Predictions Far Outpace Democrats’
With Donald Trump about to return to the White House, Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to offer positive predictions for all of the dimensions measured. Independents’ expectations are similar to the national averages.
Broad majorities of Republicans foresee positive outcomes for the U.S. on all measures except political cooperation, which is predicted by 45%. Conversely, no more than one-quarter of Democrats expect positive results for 11 of the issues, while 31% anticipate few labor strikes and 46% think the stock market will rise. Independents’ positive predictions only rise to the majority level for two items -- the stock market and employment.
Republicans Offer More Optimistic 2025 Predictions Than Democrats, Independents
A gap in partisans’ positive predictions is typical, as Americans who identify with the president’s party are more optimistic in their outlook for the year ahead. Although Democrats were more hopeful than Republicans about all dimensions for 2023, their optimism was not as fervent as Republicans’ is this year. At the end of 2022, the nation was plagued by high inflation, which likely tempered Democrats’ optimism. Trump’s victory in November has energized Republicans and has undoubtedly contributed to their broadly positive expectations for the year ahead.
Across the 13 dimensions, Republicans’ positive predictions are 30 to 79 percentage points higher than they were two years ago, while Democrats’ are between five and 59 points lower.
Partisans' Shifting Predictions for 2023 vs. 2025
Figures are the percentage-point shift in each party's positive predictions for 2023 vs. 2025.
As a result of Republicans' increased positivity, Americans overall offer more positive predictions now than they did in 2022, with the exception of one issue -- fewer now (46%) than in 2022 (64%) expect that Russia’s power in the world will decline, an 18-point slide.
Americans’ forecast for the year ahead is tied to their views of the current domestic and international climates. Recent Gallup polling finds that opinions of the economy, the direction of the country and President Joe Biden’s job performance are all negative, which is likely contributing to their outlook for 2025. The exception is Republicans’ broadly positive predictions for the year ahead as Trump prepares to become president again.
来源：非常道
