摘要：This issue of tweets will introduce the literature review of the intensive reading journal article "The Impact of Demand Uncertain
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“喆学（98）：精读期刊论文
《需求不确定性对绿色技术采用的消费者补贴的影响》
文献综述(2)”
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Today, the editor brings the
"Zhexue (98): Intensive reading of journal articles
"The impact of demand uncertainty on consumer subsidies for green technology adoption"
Literature Review(2)"
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本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读期刊论文《需求不确定性对绿色技术采用的消费者补贴的影响》文献综述。
This issue of tweets will introduce the literature review of the intensive reading journal article "The Impact of Demand Uncertainty on Consumer Subsidies for Green Technology Adoption" from three aspects: mind map, intensive reading content, and knowledge supplement.
一、思维导图（Mind Maps）
二、精读内容（Intensive reading content）
(1)线性需求函数(Linear demand function)
供应链管理中非线性需求函数相较于线性模型对最优政策影响的差异，指出需求不确定性和非线性特征对消费者剩余具有关键作用。
The difference in the impact of nonlinear demand functions on optimal policies in supply chain management compared to linear models points out that demand uncertainty and nonlinear characteristics play a key role in consumer surplus.
(2)供应链协调(Supply Chain Coordination)
供应链协调的文献，特别是供应商和零售商如何通过回扣、收入共享等机制来优化整体利润。研究了价格、数量灵活性、回购和需求不确定性风险共享对信息共享的影响。Granot和Yin分析了分散式新闻摊贩模型中价格和订单延迟的效果。本文提出，即使政府和供应商独立行动，补贴机制也足以实现协调。Chick和Manami的研究则关注了政府补贴在疫苗供应链协调中的作用，尽管与本文供应链有所不同。
Literature on supply chain coordination, specifically how suppliers and retailers can optimize overall profits through mechanisms such as rebates and revenue sharing. The effects of price, quantity flexibility, buybacks, and demand uncertainty risk sharing on information sharing are studied. Granot and Yin analyze the effects of price and order delays in a decentralized news vendor model. This paper proposes that subsidy mechanisms are sufficient to achieve coordination even if the government and suppliers act independently. Chick and Manami's research focuses on the role of government subsidies in vaccine supply chain coordination, although it is different from the supply chain in this paper.
(3)混合动力和电动汽车补贴政策有效性(Effectiveness of hybrid and electric vehicle subsidy policies)
经济学文献显示，汽油价格与混合动力车采用密切相关，加拿大的回扣政策可能挤出其他节能车。销售税减免更有效，社会偏好和油价上涨推动了2000-2006年混合动力车销量增长。高油价促进清洁技术创新。足够大的激励措施才有效，电动车采用与财务激励、充电设施和生产设施相关。多数研究未考虑需求不确定性。
Economic literature shows that gasoline prices are closely related to hybrid vehicle adoption, and Canada's rebate policy may crowd out other energy-efficient vehicles. Sales tax exemptions are more effective, and social preferences and rising oil prices drove hybrid vehicle sales growth from 2000 to 2006. High oil prices promote clean technology innovation. Incentives that are large enough are effective, and electric vehicle adoption is related to financial incentives, charging facilities, and production facilities. Most studies do not consider demand uncertainty.
(4)需求不确定性(Demand uncertainty)
需求不确定性在供需不匹配中的作用主要在运营管理文献中研究。Sallee（2011）指出，尽管生产受限，丰田普锐斯的消费者获得了大部分激励，公司却未从中获益。Fujimoto和Park（1997）及Boadway和Wildasin（1990）研究了在需求不确定情况下，出口补贴和补贴如何作为政府策略保护企业和工人。
The role of demand uncertainty in the mismatch between supply and demand has been mainly studied in the operations management literature. Sallee (2011) shows that despite production constraints, Toyota Prius consumers received most of the incentives, but the company did not benefit from it. Fujimoto and Park (1997) and Boadway and Wildasin (1990) studied how export subsidies and subsidies can serve as government strategies to protect firms and workers under demand uncertainty.
(5)电力高峰负荷定价和容量投资中对随机需求的处理方法(Treatment of random demand in electricity peak load pricing and capacity investment)
通常假设供应商知道顾客的支付意愿，并能在缺货时拒绝支付意愿最低的顾客。但在本文的应用中，不能做出这样的假设。需求模型遵循一般的价格依赖曲线，顾客随机到达并按先到先服务的原则接受服务。
It is usually assumed that suppliers know the willingness to pay of customers and can reject the customers with the lowest willingness to pay when out of stock. However, in this application, such an assumption cannot be made. The demand model follows a general price-dependent curve, and customers arrive randomly and are served on a first-come, first-served basis.
(6)文章结构(Article Structure)
第3节介绍模型，第4节分析包括加法和乘法需求在内的定价模型（价格制定者模型），研究特殊案例，并探讨需求不确定性对消费者剩余的影响。第5节研究供应链协调，第6节考虑政府补贴制造商成本的不同机制。第7节展示计算结果，第8节提供结论。不同命题和定理的证明在附录中。
Section 3 introduces the model, Section 4 analyzes pricing models including additive and multiplicative demand (price setter model), studies special cases, and explores the impact of demand uncertainty on consumer surplus. Section 5 studies supply chain coordination, and Section 6 considers different mechanisms for government subsidies to manufacturers’ costs. Section 7 presents computational results, and Section 8 provides conclusions. Proofs of different propositions and theorems are in the Appendix.
三、知识补充（Knowledge supplement）
量化需求不确定性的影响通常涉及以下几个步骤：
Quantifying the impact of demand uncertainty usually involves the following steps:
1. 数据收集：收集历史销售数据、市场趋势、消费者行为数据等，以了解需求的波动性。
1. Data collection: Collect historical sales data, market trends, consumer behavior data, etc. to understand the volatility of demand.
2. 概率分布：使用统计方法确定需求的概率分布，如正态分布、泊松分布等，以模拟需求的不确定性。
2. Probability distribution: Use statistical methods to determine the probability distribution of demand, such as normal distribution, Poisson distribution, etc., to simulate demand uncertainty.
3. 模拟：通过蒙特卡洛模拟等技术，生成大量可能的需求场景，以评估不确定性对供应链的影响。
3. Simulation: Generate a large number of possible demand scenarios through techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on the supply chain.
4. 敏感性分析：分析关键参数（如价格、促销活动、季节性变化）对需求的敏感性，以量化不确定性的影响。
4. Sensitivity analysis: Analyze the sensitivity of key parameters (such as price, promotions, seasonal changes) to demand to quantify the impact of uncertainty.
5. 风险评估：评估不同需求水平下的库存风险和缺货风险，以及这些风险对利润的影响。
5. Risk assessment: Evaluate inventory risk and out-of-stock risk under different demand levels, and the impact of these risks on profits.
6. 优化模型：构建包含需求不确定性的优化模型，如新闻摊贩模型，以确定最优库存水平和定价策略。
6. Optimization model: Build an optimization model that includes demand uncertainty, such as the news vendor model, to determine the optimal inventory level and pricing strategy.
7. 性能指标：定义性能指标，如服务水平、库存成本、缺货成本等，以量化需求不确定性对供应链性能的影响。
7. Performance indicators: Define performance indicators, such as service level, inventory cost, out-of-stock cost, etc., to quantify the impact of demand uncertainty on supply chain performance.
8. 政策评估：评估不同供应链政策（如动态定价、库存管理策略）在需求不确定性下的效果。
8. Policy evaluation: Evaluate the effectiveness of different supply chain policies (e.g., dynamic pricing, inventory management strategies) under demand uncertainty.
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翻译：谷歌翻译
参考资料：谷歌、Chat GPT
参考文献：Maxime C. Cohen, Ruben Lobel, Georgia Perakis. The Impact of Demand Uncertainty on Consumer Subsidies for Green Technology Adoption [J], Management Science, 2016, 62(5): 1235-1258.
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来源：LearningYard学苑