小一笔记（5）：物流需求预测方法Ⅰ

摘要：物流需求预测可使用的方法很多，经典的预测方法主要有:专家判断预测法、时间序列分析预测法和因果关系分析预测法，以及组合预测法。这些方法对中长期和短期预测的相对准确性不同，分析的复杂程度也不同，同时，逻辑基础也不同，有的依赖于历史数据，还有的依赖于专家意见做出预测

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"Xiaoyi Notes (5): Logistics demand forecasting methodologyⅠ"

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物流需求预测可使用的方法很多，经典的预测方法主要有:专家判断预测法、时间序列分析预测法和因果关系分析预测法，以及组合预测法。这些方法对中长期和短期预测的相对准确性不同，分析的复杂程度也不同，同时，逻辑基础也不同，有的依赖于历史数据，还有的依赖于专家意见做出预测。

There are many methods available for logistics demand forecasting. The classic forecasting methods mainly include: expert judgment forecasting method, time series analysis forecasting method, causal relationship analysis forecasting method, and combined forecasting method. These methods have different relative accuracy for medium-to-long-term and short-term forecasts, different levels of analytical complexity, and different logical foundations. Some rely on historical data, while others rely on expert opinions to make predictions.

1.专家判断预测法Expert judgment prediction method

专家判断预测法主要是一种定性预测的方法，它是在一种有组织的形式下,利用专家的直觉判断、综合分析对未来做出定性估计的方法，它通过收集专家对分析过程所做的定性估计进行预测。这类预测的方法一般在历史数据缺乏，相关信息模糊又难以做定量化分析时使用。专家判断预测法的预测结果准确性未必不好，当影响需求的某些因素(如某项物流新技术的发展和应用前景、未来政府的产业政策变化等)难以预料时，专家判断预测法可能是唯一的方法。具体的专家判断预测法可分为以下几种。

The expert judgement forecasting method is mainly a qualitative forecasting method, which is a method of making qualitative estimates of the future in an organized form using the intuitive judgement and comprehensive analysis of experts, and it makes forecasts by collecting qualitative estimates made by experts on the analysis process. This type of forecasting method is generally used when there is a lack of historical data and the relevant information is vague and difficult to do quantitative analysis. The accuracy of the forecast results of the expert judgment forecasting method may not be bad, when certain factors affecting demand (such as the development and application prospects of a new logistics technology, future changes in government industrial policy, etc.) is difficult to predict, the expert judgment forecasting method may be the only method. Specific expert judgment forecasting methods can be divided into the following categories.

(1)市场调查法market research method

市场调查法主要是通过各种不同的市场调查方法(如问卷、面谈)收集对未来发展的趋势估计，依据调查结果，确定预测的定性判断。这种方法适合于中长期预测。

The market research method is mainly used to collect estimates of trends in future developments through different market research methods (e.g., questionnaires, interviews) and, based on the results of the surveys, to determine the qualitative judgment of the forecast. This method is suitable for medium- and long-term forecasting.

(2)小组意见法Panel opinion methodology

小组意见法是指用会议的方式组织一批专家相互沟通、自由讨论，发表各自意见,然后综合各专家意见做出判断。这种方法的基本思路是认为群体讨论将得出比任何个人所能得到的更好的预测结果。这种方法也适合于中长期预测。

The group opinion method refers to organizing a group of experts to communicate with each other in the form of a meeting, discussing freely and expressing their own opinions, and then combining the opinions of the experts to make a judgment. The basic idea of this method is that group discussion will produce better forecasts than any individual can obtain. This method is also suitable for medium- and long-term forecasting.

(3)历史类比方法Historical analogy method

历史类比方法是通过未来与历史进行对比分析，发现相似的模式，利用相似模式的历史数据进行预测。历史往往有惊人的相似之处。这种方法适合于中长短期预测。

Historical analogy methods are used to analyze the future in comparison to history, to discover similar patterns, and to make predictions using historical data of similar patterns. History often has striking similarities. This method is suitable for short- and medium-term forecasting.

(4)德尔菲法Delphi Method

德尔菲法(DelphiMethod)实际上也是一种专家意见法。它是以匿名的方式，轮番向所选取的专家投送预测调查问卷或预测调查表，在收到专家匿名反馈的意见后，进行析同辩异的统计分析。对于分歧较大的观点，在补充材料后编制进一步的调查问卷或调查表，再发送给专家征询。这样多次的轮番征询，使专家意见大致趋于一致，最后得出统一的预测值。这种方法由于接受了新的信息,对该组专家而言也是一个学习的过程，而且不存在群体压力或有支配权力的个体对整个群体的影响。

The Delphi Method is actually a kind of expert opinion method. It is to anonymously send prediction questionnaires or prediction questionnaires to selected experts in turn, and after receiving anonymous feedback from the experts, it will analyze the similarities and defend the differences in the statistical analysis. For views that are more divergent, further questionnaires or surveys are prepared after additional materials are added, and then sent to the experts for consultation. Such repeated rounds of consultation will lead to a general convergence of expert opinions, and finally to a unified prediction value. This method is also a learning process for the group of experts because of the acceptance of new information, and there is no group pressure or influence of dominant individuals on the group as a whole.

(5)综合估测法Comprehensive estimation method

综合估测法是一种定性与定量相结合的方法。它主要用于对事物未来发展的速度的大致的估计，通过这种估计不能得到一个确切的数值，但可以得到一个大致的范围,例如最高值是多少，最低值是多少，最可能值是多少，取值范围是多少等;又例如,可以用它来预测某地区物流市场明年的物流需求量是多少，物流提供能力是多少等。根据这些数据进行综合分析，可以求得一个统一的综合估测值。此方法的步骤如下:

The comprehensive estimation method is a combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. It is mainly used for the future development of things the speed of the general estimate, through this estimate can not get an exact value, but can get a general range, such as the highest value is how much, the lowest value is how much, the most likely value is how much, the range of values, etc.; and for example, it can be used to predict a certain area of logistics market next year's demand for logistics is how much logistics to provide the ability to provide how much, and so on. According to the comprehensive analysis of these data, you can find a unified integrated estimate. The steps of this method are as follows.

①选择专家，可以是各种类型的专家，每种类型的专家选择若干名，并为每种类型、各种类型中的每个专家设定权重值。

Selection of experts, which can be of various types, selection of a number of experts of each type, and setting of weight values for each expert of each type, in each type.

②分别收集各类型的每个专家的估测值(包括最高值、最低值、最可能值)及发生的概率。

The estimated values (including the highest, lowest, and most likely values) and the probability of occurrence were collected for each expert for each type separately.

③对他们的估测值进行统计分析，得出一个统一的综合估测值。

Their estimates were statistically analyzed to arrive at a harmonized composite estimate.

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