摘要：What changes have geopolitical tensions brought to the division of labor in globaltrade, investment and industrial chains, and wha
What changes have geopolitical tensions brought to the division of labor in globaltrade, investment and industrial chains, and what medium- and long-term constraints maythese changes impose? How should businesses deal with the uncertainty brought about bythis situation?
ZHU Min
Senior Advisor of CCIEE; Former VicePresident of IMF; Former Deputy Governor of thePeople's Bank of China
Geopolitical tensions are having a significant impact on trade, investment, and supply chains, especially in the "Trump 2.0" era. First, Trump’s imposition of high tariffs on countries, particularly under the principle of reciprocity, introduces considerable uncertainty. The concept of reciprocity itself remains ambiguous — whether it refers to trade surplus parity, consistency in bilateral trade policies, or tariff equivalence. This ambiguity fuels significant instability in global trade. Second, geopolitical tensions heavily influence the flow of investment and capital, with national industrial policies playing a particularly critical role. Even during the Biden administration, then-National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan explicitly announced in 2024 that the United States would abandon the Washington Consensus in favor of promoting industrial policy to drive the resurgence and development of America's high-tech industries and manufacturing. Since then, countries worldwide have rolled out more than 1,000 industrial policies, leading to increasing global fragmentation, isolation, and division — developments that severely hinder global investment and trade. Third, the broad securitization of economic, trade, and technological issues has emerged as a new feature of geopolitical tensions. This trend, which involves expanding security concerns into areas like industrial development, data management, and external dependencies, disrupts the foundations of open and free trade. With the onset of the Trump 2.0 era, the U.S. government has already implemented a series of policies that are set to create profound shocks and lasting impacts on the global economy, trade, investment, and future international economic order.
In response to these challenges, businesses must remain composed and adaptable. First, companies should focus on strengthening their foundations by maintaining core competitiveness through continuous technological innovation. In 2018, during Trump's first term, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods rose from around 3% to 19%, yet China's exports to the U.S. remained stable at approximately $500 billion, even increasing during the pandemic. China's trade surplus with the U.S. also stayed within the $300–350 billion range. This demonstrates the resilience and global competitiveness of Chinese products and businesses.
Second, companies must closely monitor shifts in the global policy environment. With countries frequently introducing new industrial policies, international expansion or investment plans formulated a year ago may no longer align with current conditions. Businesses need to remain agile, adjusting their strategies in real time to stay aligned with evolving industrial policies and ensuring compliance in their global operations. Third, companies must stay calm and vigilant. The restructuring of global economic systems, markets, and environments is still in its early stages. Policies introduced by the Biden administration on technology, industry, and investment have already had geopolitical and securitization-driven impacts on the global economy and finance. The Trump administration is likely to continue and escalate these policies, and we are only at the beginning of this process. Therefore, it is crucial for businesses to maintain sharp situational awareness and adjust their strategies as circumstances evolve.
来源：博鳌亚洲论坛
