摘要：杰弗里·M·琼斯博士自 2000 年起担任盖洛普高级编辑，负责监督研究工作并为盖洛普的美国民意调查及其他公开发布的调查进行分析。他的有关公众舆论和投票行为的研究成果已在学术期刊和编辑书籍中发表。

Satisfaction with U.S. Democracy Edges Up From Record Low（对美国民主制度的满意度从历史最低点略有上升）Republicans mostly responsible for increased satisfaction（共和党人对满意度提升负主要责任）

杰弗里·M·琼斯（JEFFREY M. JONES）

杰弗里·M·琼斯博士自 2000 年起担任盖洛普高级编辑，负责监督研究工作并为盖洛普的美国民意调查及其他公开发布的调查进行分析。他的有关公众舆论和投票行为的研究成果已在学术期刊和编辑书籍中发表。

华盛顿特区--大多数美国人(61%)仍对美国民主的运作方式感到不满。不过，表示满意的 34%的比例较一年前创纪录的低点 28%有所上升。

美国人对美国民主运行方式的满意度

您对这个国家民主制度的运作情况满意还是不满意?

盖洛普 12月2日至 18日的一项民意调查显示，民众对民主制度的满意度仍处于盖洛普自 1984 年以来追踪的低水平。上世纪 80 年代和 90 年代的满意度普遍高于现在，1984 年曾达到创纪录的61%。但1992年6月是个例外，当时经济衰退以及国会议员的不当行为引发了“愤怒选民”的浪潮，满意度降至 36%。两年后，满意度回升至 50%。

盖洛普从 1999 年到 2020 年没有提出这个问题，但其他民意调查机构有。美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)在 2010 年和 2016 年进行的两次民意调查发现，40%的美国人对民主制度的运作方式感到满意，这一比例总体上低于 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代，但高于近年来的水平。

如今美国民众的满意度与 2021年1月时持平，当时围绕 2020 年大选结果的争议引发了1月6日对美国国会大厦的袭击事件，并扰乱了确认乔·拜登胜选并即将就任总统的选举人票计票工作。

共和党人推动满意度上升；两党支持者如今满意度持平

过去一年中，美国人对民主制度的满意度有所提升，这主要是由于共和党人的满意度提高所致，这或许与唐纳德·特朗普在 2024 年总统大选中获胜有关。目前有 33% 的共和党人表示满意，这一比例几乎是 2023 年 12月所测得的 17%的两倍，而 17%的满意度创下了历史最低纪录，这很可能反映了他们对拜登总统的不满。

民主党人的满意度为 35%，与去年的 38% 相近，但较 2021 年1月的 47%有明显下降。无党派人士的满意度较一年前有所上升，从 27% 升至 34%。

由于党派团体的变化，共和党人、民主党人和无党派人士如今对美国民主的满意度水平相近，这在趋势中实属罕见。

按党派划分的美国人对美国民主运行方式的满意度

您对本国民主制度的运行状况满意还是不满意?

从历史上看，总统所在政党的支持者对美国民主制度的满意度一直高于反对党的支持者。除了当前这次(从民主党总统到共和党总统的过渡期间)的调查结果外，另一次例外情况出现在1998年12月。当时，由共和党掌控的众议院正在对民主党总统比尔·克林顿进行弹劾，对美国民主制度运作感到满意的共和党人多于民主党人。

教育差异缩小

盖洛普的数据显示，2021 年至 2023 年间，高中及以下学历的美国人对民主制度的满意度从 36% 下降至 21%。与此同时，其他教育群体的满意度几乎没有变化，导致了在对美国民主制度运行状况的看法上存在显著的教育差异。在本次调查中，高中及以下学历人群中有 34% 表示满意，这一比例基本回到了 2021 年的水平。其他教育程度群体在 2021 年、2023 年和 2024 年的调查中满意度相对稳定。

拥有高中及以下学历者与拥有研究生学历者之间的差距已从 2023 年的 17个百分点缩小至如今的6个百分点。目前，受过一些大学教育但未获得学位的美国人所表达的满意度略低于其他群体，尤其是与研究生群体相比。

按受教育程度划分的美国人对美国民主运行状况的满意度

您对本国民主制度的运行状况满意还是不满意?

最终结论

美国人总体上对美国民主的运作情况表示不满，尽管程度略低于 2023 年末。特朗普在 2024 年总统大选中的胜利或许可以解释为何共和党人的满意度在经历了过去几年的大幅下滑后有所回升。如今，共和党人对民主的满意度与民主党人和无党派人士相当。不过，如今对民主的满意度仍远低于以往。

如今的情况比 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代要糟糕得多，那时的美国人普遍对国家状况更乐观，对政府更信任，对公共机构也更有信心。

WASHINGTON, D.C.-- Most Americans, 61%, remain dissatisfied with the way democracy is working in the U.S. However, the 34% who are satisfied is up from the record-low 28% recorded a year ago.

Americans' Satisfaction with the Way Democracy ls Working in the U.S.

A Dec. 2-18 Gallup poll finds satisfaction with democracy remaining on the low end of Gallup's trend, which dates back to 1984. Satisfaction levels were generally higher in the 1980s and 1990s than now, including a record-high 61% in 1984. The exception during this time was a 36% reading in June 1992, a year when an economic recession and misconduct by members of Congress sparked a wave of "angry voters." Two years later, satisfaction was back to 50%

Gallup did not ask this question from 1999 to 2020, but other polling organizations did. Two CNN surveys, one from 2010 and the other from 2016, found that 40% of Americans were satisfied with the way democracy was working, generally lower than in the 1980s and 1990s but higher than in recent years.

Americans' satisfaction today matches what it was in January 2021, shortly after disputes over the 2020 election outcome led to the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and disrupted the electoral vote count that would recognize Joe Biden as the winner and incoming president.

Republicans Fuel Uptick in Satisfaction; Party Groups Now Equally Satisfied

The increase in Americans' satisfaction with democracy over the past year is primarily a result of higher satisfaction among Republicans, perhaps tied to Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 presidential election. Thirty-three percent of Republicans are satisfied, nearly double the 17% measured in December 2023, a record low likely reflecting their displeasure with President Biden.

Democrats' 35% satisfaction figure is similar to last year's 38% but down significantly from 47% in January 2021. Independents are more satisfied than a year ago, 34%versus 27%.

As a result of the changes by party group, Republicans, Democrats and independents now express similar levels of satisfaction with U.S. democracy, a rarity in the trend.

Americans' Satisfaction with the Way Democracy ls Working in the U.S. by Party

Historically, supporters of the president's party have expressed more satisfaction with U.S. democracy than those who identify with the opposing party. in addition to the current measure, taken during the transition from a Democratic to a Republican resident, the other exception occurred in December 1998. At that time, the Republican-led House of Representatives was in the process of impeaching Democratic President Bill Clinton, and more Republicans than Democrats were satisfied with the workings of U.S. democracy.

Educational Differences Shrink

Gallup documented a decline in satisfaction with democracy between 2021 and 2023among Americans with a high school education or less, from 36% to 21%. At the same time, there was little change among other education groups, leading to a significant education gap in views of how U.S. democracy was functioning.

In the current survey, 34% of those with a high school education or less are satisfied essentially back to where it was in 2021. 0ther education groups' satisfaction level shave been steadier between the 2021,2023 and 2024 surveys.

The gap between those with a high school education or less and those with a post graduate education has shrunk from 17 percentage points in 2023 to six points today. Americans with some college education but no degree now express slightly less satisfaction than other groups, particularly in comparison to postgraduates.

Americans' Satisfaction with the Way Democracy ls Working in the U.S. by Educational Attainment

Bottom Line

Americans largely express dissatisfaction with how democracy is working in the U.S. although to a slightly lesser degree than they did in late 2023. Trump's victory in the2024 presidential election could explain why Republicans' satisfaction has rebounded after cratering in the past few years. Now, Republicans are just as satisfied as Democrats and independents. Still, satisfaction with democracy is much lower today than it was in the 1980s and 1990s, when Americans were generally more upbeat about national conditions, more trusting in government and more confident in public institutions.

来源：非 常道